Virginia Commonwealth Rams Basketball Season Preview
The college hoops season is right around the corner, and Busting Brackets is here to whet your basketball-starved appetite. Over the next five weeks, we are publishing season previews team by team, conference by conference, to offer a glimpse into the upcoming season. Busting Brackets is giving you the lowdown on the biggest storylines, offseason changes and x-factors for each team and each league as we roll into the 2012-13 season. Our complete season preview archive can be accessed here. Buckle up, peeps.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
| Last Season | 29-7 (15-3 Colonial Athletic Association) Won CAA tournament Lost to Indiana in third round of NCAA tournament |
| Key Returning Players: | Juvonte Reddic, F Troy Daniels, G Rob Brandenberg, G Darius Theus, G Treveon Graham, G Briante Weber, G D.J. Haley, C |
| Key Additions: | Melvin Johnson, G (St. Benedict’s Prep) ***Jordan Burgess, G/F (Benedictine HS) Justin Tuoyo, C (Lovejoy HS) ***Mo Alie-Cox, F (Middleburg Academy) ***Ruled ineligible this week*** |
| Key Losses: | Bradford Burgess, G/F |
| Top Non-Conference Games: | Nov. 13 vs. Wichita State Nov. 22 vs. Memphis (Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament) Nov. 23 vs. Duke or Minnesota (Battle 4 Atlantis) Nov. 24 vs. TBD (Battle 4 Atlantis) Dec. 1 vs. Belmont Dec. 7 @ Old Dominion (Hardwood Showdown) Dec. 15 vs. Alabama Jan. 5 vs. Lehigh |
| Top Conference Games: | Jan. 9 vs. Dayton Jan. 17 vs. Saint Joseph’s Jan. 24 @ Richmond Feb. 14 vs. UMass Feb. 19 @ Saint Louis Feb. 23 @ Xavier Mar. 2 vs. Butler Mar. 6 vs. Richmond Mar. 10 @ Temple |
| Breakout Player: | Jordan Burgess. (EDITOR’S NOTE: The NCAA deemed Burgess a partial qualifier over the weekend and the freshman will have to sit out the 2012-13 season. Look for Melvin Johnson to step in as the Rams breakout player this year in Jordan’s absence). VCU loses one Burgess and replaces him with another. After losing the team’s leading scorer (Bradford Burgess) from last season, Shaka Smart’s program stayed in-house—literally—to find Bradford’s successor. Word out of Richmond is the younger Burgess may even be the better of the two brothers. Jordan is not yet the shooter his older brother is/was, but he’s a more complete player already. A swingman who will occupy one of three wing positions in Smart’s famously undersized lineups, Burgess II rebounds exceptionally well for his position and makes up for his size (6-foot-5 with sneakers) with toughness, strength and a high motor. Jordan is a fierce competitor who plays at top gear from start to finish (the same cannot be said about a number of blue-chip recruits). Burgess will team up with St. Benedict’s star guard Melvin Johnson, a former Miami (FL) commit, to form the best one-two recruiting punch headed to VCU since Smart took over the head coaching position in 2009. Scary thought for rival A-10 schools to ponder: while expectations are sky-high for Burgess, who figures to make an immediate impact as a freshman, Johnson was the more coveted prospect of the two. |
| X-Factor: | Offensive consistency. We know this for sure: the defense will be there again for the Rams. New names, new faces or just new family members roll through the program year after year, but as long as Smart is in charge, the defensive intensity will be unrivaled nationally. Fueled by a relentless full-court press, VCU led the nation last season in turnovers forced per possession. And with ample depth, especially at guard, and sufficient athleticism at his disposal, Smart has the pieces in place to run an effective—better yet ferocious—press once again. It’s on the other end of the court where the Rams have a lot to prove. VCU ranked 97th in the country last season in adjusted offensive efficiency as measured by Ken Pomeroy, and without the team’s top offensive weapon from a season ago, the Rams have issues to address on offense. VCU manufactures a large percentage of its points off turnovers, which works well against error-prone teams. For the Rams to have better offensive success in 2012-13—especially against fundamentally sound teams that don’t turn the ball over—they’ll have to improve their effectiveness in the half-court, where the team ranked in the bottom half of college basketball in terms of points per [half court] possession. |
| Best Case: | VCU quickly learns that the reason it was inconsistent on offense last season was because of its since-departed leading scorer. As fun as Burgess was to watch when he was on his game, he did just shoot 36-percent from the floor (and he took almost 400 shots over the course of the season). Without the elder Burgess taking up a bulk of the team’s offensive possessions with low percentage shots, VCU excels on offense with a wider arsenal of weapons. The two prized freshmen contribute immediately, while returning starters Troy Daniels, Rob Brandenberg and Juvonte Reddic (now all upperclassmen) spearhead the team. VCU’s dynamic and unconvential pressure defense is an instant success in the generally more methodical A-10, where opposing offenses are fully unprepared for the tempo and style of play. As they’ve had success doing in recent NCAA tournaments against teams unaccustomed to their style, the Rams are able to take advantage of their first season in the A-10, where the book is not yet out on them. Yes, VCU is entering uncharted territory too. And the Rams, likewise, are unfamiliar with their new conference foes. But VCU has seen the more orthodox A-10 style of play many times before. A-10 teams have not experienced Shaka Smart basketball. The Rams parlay their “newness” and “lack of familiarity” factors into a dominating conference run. VCU wins the A-10 in its first-ever season as part of it, and thanks to signature wins at the Battle 4 Atlantis, VCU notches a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. We’ve learned Smart can be dangerous in March even with a double-digit seed. Imagine what he can do with a favorable pod. Yikes. |
| Worst Case: | The Rams, all-too reliant on playing an up-and-down game contingent on turnovers and fast-break opportunities, never harness their half court offense. Bradford Burgess, more than just a gunner, is sorely missed as both a dependable offensive scorer and a leader on the floor. While the two prized freshmen flash potential, they take their rookie lumps in a humbling first season in the A-10. VCU doesn’t catch the A-10 off guard, and the league’s more disciplined nature renders Smart’s patented press moot. By mid-conference-season, VCU abandons its full-court press and searches for a more lax defense. The normally stout Rams defense is not a strength against top-tier, well-coached A-10 squads, who play ball control and beat VCU in a grind-it-out half court game. The uptick in conference competition is greater than initially expected for Smart and the Rams. Experienced-laden teams like Saint Louis, Saint Joseph’s, Temple and UMass prove to be the kryptonite to VCU’s system. After a rough stretch in the non-conference portion of the schedule that includes a 1-2 showing at the Battle 4 Atlantis, the Rams stumble into conference play. VCU finishes sixth in the league, buried by a top-heavy conference with seven teams legitimately in contention for the conference crown. The Rams squeak out an at-large berth but are bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament. No more catching the nation by surprise like they did two years ago. |
| Projected Finish: | 24-7 (12-4 Atlantic-10) Win A-10 tournament NCAA tournament No. 4 seed |