Duke Blue Devils Basketball Season Preview

The college hoops season is right around the corner, and Busting Brackets is here to whet your basketball-starved appetite. Over the next five weeks, we are publishing season previews team by team, conference by conference, to offer a glimpse into the upcoming season. Busting Brackets is giving you the lowdown on the biggest storylines, offseason changes and x-factors for each team and each league as we roll into the 2012-13 season. Our complete season preview archive can be accessed here. Buckle up, peeps.

Duke Blue Devils

Last Season	27-7 (13-3 ACC) Lost to Florida State in semifinals of ACC tournament Lost to Lehigh in second round of NCAA tournament
Key Returning Players:	Mason Plumlee, C Seth Curry, G Ryan Kelly, F Quinn Cook, G Tyler Thornton, G Josh Hairston, F
Key Additions:	Alex Murphy, F (Redshirt Freshman) Marshall Plumlee, C (Redshirt Freshman) Rasheed Sulaimon, G Amile Jefferson, F
Key Losses:	Austin Rivers, G Miles Plumlee, C Andre Dawkins, G (Redshirt, may return in 2013-14) Mike Gbinije, F (Transferred to Syracuse)
Top Non-Conference Games:	Nov. 13 vs. Kentucky (Atlanta, Champions Classic) Nov. 22 vs. Minnesota (Bahamas, Battle 4 Atlantis) Nov. 23 vs. Memphis or VCU (Battle 4 Atlantis) Nov. 24 vs. Likely Louisville or Missouri (Battle 4 Atlantis) Nov. 28 vs. Ohio State Dec. 8 vs. Temple (East Rutherford, NJ) Jan. 2 @ Davidson
Top Conference Games:	Jan. 12 @ NC State Jan. 23 @ Miami (FL) Jan. 26 vs. Maryland Feb. 2 @ Florida State Feb. 7 vs. NC State Feb. 13 vs. North Carolina Feb. 16 @ Maryland Mar. 2 vs. Miami (FL) Mar. 9 @ North Carolina
Breakout Player:	Quinn Cook. I was tempted to go with Alex Murphy here, the redshirt freshman who will likely start at the 3 for the Blue Devils this season (the only true small forward on last year’s roster—freshman Mike Gbinije—rode the pine). Instead, Quinn Cook is the guy; the only hesitation is whether he gets enough minutes to make a major impact (Coach K likes returning junior Tyler Thornton). In limited action as a freshman last season, Cook was an offensive wizard and teased some of what made him one of the hottest point guard commodities in the high school class of 2011. Cook owned the top assist-to-turnover ratio (4:1) in the ACC, but mind you that figure was accrued over a negligible sample size (roughly 12 minutes per game). Still, Cook is a terrific outside shooter and an adept passer who reads the floor well. He’s creative in transition and can run an offense extremely well. No, he’s not Kyrie Irving. But Cook is very good is own right. The defensive end will ultimately determine how much of an impact Cook can make. A relatively weak defender, Cook will have to get after it on the defensive end next season, especially in light of Duke’s defensive struggles in 2011-12. If you could combine Tyler Thornton’s defense and Quinn Cook’s offense, you’d have the second best point guard in the league (behind only Lorenzo Brown). As it stands, even if Cook’s defense is not floor-slap-worthy, he’s still poised to have a breakout season in 2012-13 if for no other reason but his offensive talent.
X-Factor:	Point guard play, perimeter defense. For the first time since the 2001 title team, when Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy and Shane Battier rounded out the top front court in college hoops, Duke’s bread and butter this season will be the frontcourt, not the backcourt. Returning seniors Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly (who missed the end of last season with an ankle injury) and promising redshirt freshman Alex Murphy will fortify one of the top frontcourts in the league. Duke’s success instead will hinge on the play of its backcourt, especially on the defensive end. The Blue Devils will need Tyler Thornton to be better offensively and Quinn Cook to be better defensively, and the Duke guards as a unit must do a better job incorporating Mason Plumlee, who was often ignored last season, in the post. Seth Curry can flat out score. Now better defense, decision-making and consistency are in store (he disappeared in the tournament). Duke is small in the backcourt, which could pose a problem on the defensive end, but the presence of a true small forward in Alex Murphy manning the 3 should help. Last season, bear in mind, Austin Rivers and Andre Dawkins (both natural 2-guards) switched off guarding opposing 3’s, creating mismatches on the defensive end. You can win with a small backcourt; Duke did it in ’01 with Jason Williams and Chris Duhon, after all, while Louisville made the Final Four and had the top defense in the country with a miniature backcourt trio of Peyton Siva and Chris and Russ Smith. The Blue Devils won’t win anything of importance if the perimeter D doesn’t improve and the guards don’t better utilize the strength of the team (namely, Plumlee).
Best Case:	Mason Plumlee has a breakout season deserving of ACC player of the year accolades. Ryan Kelly, the unsung staple of Duke’s offense (he was badly missed at the end of last season, when Duke’s offense sputtered), co-anchors the frontcourt and is tougher on the boards. Alex Murphy is a viable starting option and his 6-foot-8 presence is a major boon on the defense end. Quinn Cook supplants Tyler Thornton by midseason as the starter, emerging as one of the premiere point guards in the ACC. Duke still hits its 3’s, but also features Plumlee in the post 10-15 times a game. Rasheed Sulaimon, who should be the best freshman in the ACC next season, is an instant impact recruit. The absence of maligned combo guard Austin Rivers, who from an individual standpoint had an outstanding freshman season, actually proves beneficial for the Devils. Duke’s offense became all too reliant on isolation, “watch Austin dribble 20 times and throw up a shot” ball at the end of last season. It worked in the waning seconds at Chapel Hill, but it ultimately backfired during postseason play. With a more balanced offensive system befitting of Coach K, the Blue Devils are again a force on offense. An improved commitment to defense and contributions from Murphy and Sulaimon (by all reports, both great defenders) revitalizes Duke, which wins the ACC outright en route to another ACC tournament championship. From a best case lens, a Final Four is well within reach for the Blue Devils, especially given the lack of a truly elite team this season (as Kentucky was last). Fresh off leading Team USA to its second straight gold medal, Coach K gets one for the thumb, beating fellow blueblood Indiana in the title game to do it. A commitment from Jabari Parker midseason is the cherry on top of a storybook season in Durham.
Worst Case:	Plumlee is again ignored in the post, and the Duke guards continue to engage in personal 3-point shooting contests on the court. Kelly, still fragile inside, does not take off in his senior season. The Blue Devils’ biggest strength heading into the season—frontcourt personnel—is largely rendered moot. Quinn Cook still can’t defend. Tyler Thornton can’t shoot, score, take his man off the dribble or proactively run an offense. Alex Murphy’s summer shooting woes trickle into the season. The painstaking inconsistencies of Seth Curry continue. Lack of backcourt size and quickness IS a problem, and the Duke perimeter defense is abused by bigger and more athletic opposing guards. After losses to Kentucky, Ohio State and Louisville in the non-conference, Duke proves vulnerable to the top-tier teams in college hoops. Upstart NC State, which coughed up a 20-point lead at Cameron last season, axes revenge and sweeps the season series. Duke, which went undefeated on the road in conference play last season, is tripped up by NC State, UNC, Miami, Florida State and Maryland away from home as the Blue Devils sink to a six-loss season in-conference (the ACC now has an 18-game season). A poor ACC tournament showing carries over into the NCAA tournament, where a No. 4/5-seeded Duke team is again upset in the round of 64. Duke watches as Jabari Parker slinks off to Michigan State.
Projected Finish:	25-6 (14-4 ACC) ACC regular season runner-up / Win ACC tournament NCAA tournament No. 2 seed