Before the season I made several Big 12 basketball predictions, now at the midway point of the season it’s time to tally the score.
We’ll go through where I had the team at the start of the season, what they have looked like recently, and where they could end up when the regular season ends. If I had any players projected for awards, I will also briefly mention that as well.
What’s most impressive about the Big 12 this year is that top to bottom, it is the most competitive conference. Eight of the ten teams are in the top 60 of KenPom rankings, with nine in the top 75. Only TCU is outside the top 100.
Additionally, seven teams are inside the top 50 in RPI, with Texas Tech at 51. Only the ACC can challenge the Big 12 for the largest proportion of teams that have remained competitive, even if records don’t reflect success.
If things break well for Kansas State and Texas Tech, the Big 12 could potentially send as many as eight teams to the NCAA (they are currently slated to send six).
The conference also features two players that could challenge for national POY and three coaches that could get top honors. It is amazing to see a conference like the Big 12 remain so consistent without as many teams as modern super conferences, even as Big 12 leadership seeks to potentially expand.
Next: Baylor Bears
Baylor
I originally had the Bears finishing fourth this year. They are tied for fifth at the moment at 6-4 after two straight losses at home to Texas and at West Virginia. I’m calling a final run of 4-4 to finish at 10-8.
The team’s offense seems to be stagnating a bit in their last several games. Taurean Prince, Rico Gathers, and Johnathan Motley are still chugging away from the paint, but the guards have underwhelmed in recent contests. Lester Medford and Al Freeman have shot a combined 27% from the field in their two losses. If Baylor wants to stay in the race, these two in particular have to get better. I believe that Baylor will finish their final eight games with a record of 3-5 to go 9-9
I also said that King McClure would win Freshman of the Year. He has averaged 4.6 ppg and shot 47% from the field in just over 12 minutes per game. He will be a good contributor in the future, but at this point will probably not win the freshman award.
Next: Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State
Iowa State is a good bit off my original prediction to finish first. They are tied with Baylor at 6-4 after a road win over Oklahoma State.
The Cyclones have been very up and down this year with two two-game losing streaks. They followed up their first one with a four-game win streak and have just started their second one with the Cowboys. Key to their continued success will be the reinstatement of center Jameel McKay, who was suspended for the road trip to Stillwater. If he gets right and the team holds its grit, I am confident that Iowa State can go 6-2 the rest of the way to finish 12-6.
Deonte Burton is a pretty solid lock to win conference Newcomer of the Year. He has averaged 8.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, and shooting a fantastic 54% from the field (including 48% from distance) in just 17 minutes a contest. He definitely looks more settled in the past five games after being inconsistent since his activation on December 19th.
Next: Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas
Kansas keeps cruising along after I picked them third. They are tied for the conference lead at 8-3 after holding off conference leader West Virginia Tuesday night.
Through the Phog
The Jayhawks have done this almost completely with their hyped lottery picks on the bench. Cheick Diallo and Svi Mykhailiuk both average less than 15 minutes per game. The two highly-regarded prospects have looked lost for good parts of games in which they’ve played and inconsistent at best.
For their part, Perry Ellis and Wayne Seldon have done the heavy lifting. Ellis in particular has been phenomenal the past three games, averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds while hitting shots at a 69% rate. Even with their recent hot streak, I am going 4-3 in the teams’ final eight to finish at 12-6.
Next: Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State
Kansas State is doing its best to beat my call of finishing last. They are two games above TCU at 3-7 after a terrific defensive performance in their upset of Oklahoma.
Wesley Iwundu powers the Wildcat attack. He is the team’s leading scorer at 12.8 ppg. He put up 22 along with seven assists in the teams recent upset. Iwundu is making a strong case to be Third Team All-Big 12. There is still a chance that KSU could fall apart with games against Kansas, Texas, and at Iowa State remaining, but going 4-4 to finish 7-11 seems reasonable.
I don’t know how much hype Dean Wade got coming into this season, but the youngster from Saint John, KS is pushing for Big 12 accolades in his first year. The freshman is the best of several on the team, averaging 10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and one assist. He shoots a terrible 29% from three, but has started to show signs of improvement as the season has progressed.
Next: Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma
Oklahoma remains tied for first in the Big 12 after a stunning home effort against Texas at 8-3.
Stormin in Norman
Buddy Hield remains the prohibitive favorite for both conference and national Player of the Year awards. He is scoring more than 25 points per game and 50% from both three point range and the field.
The team’s hardest remaining games are at West Virginia, at Texas, and home against Kansas on Saturday. A 5-2 record is pretty reasonable for the remaining contests to finish at 13-5 for the year.
I also had Lon Kruger winning the conference coach of the year. He has a decent chance to win that if Oklahoma can end KU’s Big 12 reign, but is probably second to his main rival from across the Red River.
Next: Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State
Poor OK State. First they lose star Phil Forte with an elbow injury in their third game, then key freshman Juwan Evans to a indefinite shoulder injury against Texas Tech. They are ninth, one spot back where I put them before the season, at 2-9. They have lost three straight games and it doesn’t get easier, with road games to Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa State remaining. Given their remaining slate, 1-6 would be their next results to finish at 3-15.
Without Evans, who would have been the easy choice for Big 12 Freshman of the Year, the Cowboys have relied on seniors Chris Olivier and Jeff Newberry along with junior Leyton Hammonds to try and keep the ship afloat. However, none of the three upperclassmen have had the luck necessary to keep the season alive.
Next: Texas Longhorns
Texas
Texas is exceeding many expectations. They are fourth in conference play with a record of 7-4 after a heartbreaking loss at Oklahoma that would have made the team a real threat to upset everybody’s preseason expectations.
Isaiah Taylor has continued to shine as the Longhorn point guard. He averages 15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1 steal, and shoots 44% from the field. The team also has not struggled as much without senior center Cameron Ridley, who went down with a broken foot earlier this year. Prince Ibeh has been the real revelation at center, grabbing double digit rebounds in four games since the start of 2016 and protecting the rim as well as anyone in America.
The team has to travel to Iowa State, but they get home stands against WVU, Baylor, KU, and OU for their hardest remaining games. I feel that 4-3 will be their final run to finish at 11-7.
Shaka Smart should lead the Big 12 Coach of the Year talk right now after his impressive job in Austin. UT also has a candidate for conference Freshman as well with Kerwin Roach.
Next: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is one of the most improved teams in the Big 12 this year, even if the record doesn’t show it. The Red Raiders are 3-7 so far after a road loss to Texas.
Wreck'Em Red
The lineup has been shuffled a bit in recent games, but Devaugntah Williams leads the team with 11.6 ppg. Zach Smith and Toddrick Gotcher have also done quite well this year at center and shooting guard, respectively. The player I want to focus on though, is forward Aaron Ross. After averaging less than 10 minutes in his first two seasons, Ross has roughly quadrupled his scoring and rebounding averages from 2.6 ppg to 9.1 and 1.8 to 4.1 in double the average minutes. He could be the leading contender for Most Improved Player.
Even with the team’s improvements, there isn’t likely enough to do better than 2-6 the rest of the way to finish at 5-13.
Next: TCU Horned Frogs
TCU
This might be head coach Trent Johnson’s last year. TCU has fought hard in every game this year, but still sits last at 2-9 after defeating undermanned OK State.
Malique Trent, Chauncey Collins, and Vladimir Brodziansky are the best players on a team that plays almost their entire active roster every night. Brodziansky in particular averages 10.4 ppg, 1 bpg, and is the only player shooting above 50% from the floor. However, the Horned Frogs only has one senior listed, so the possibility for improvement is there.
Given their remaining schedule, I have a hard time predicting better than 1-6 to finish 3-15.
Next: West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia
After picking them sixth, West Virginia has roared this year to sit tied atop the standings. The Mountaineers are 8-3 after losing on the road to Kansas Tuesday night.
Jaysean Page leads the team in scoring as their sixth man. He averages 14.2 ppg and shoots a solid 49% from the field. The team could also get their senior leader Jonathan Holton back after he was suspended prior to the Big 12-SEC Challenge against Florida.
Bob Huggins has done a truly magnificent job taking a less talented team and getting to this point simply through grit and determination. If WVU wins at least a share of the regular season title, he will be right there with Smart for Coach of the Year. Given the team’s remaining schedule, I’m predicting a final stretch of 4-3 to finish at 12-6.
Next: Recap
Big 12 Conference predictions
1 – preseason: Iowa State midseason: Oklahoma
2 – preseason: Oklahoma midseason: Kansas
3 – preseason: Kansas midseason: West Virginia
4 – preseason: Baylor midseason: Iowa State
5 – preseason: Texas midseason: Texas
6 – preseason: West Virginia midseason: Baylor
7 – preseason: Texas Tech midseason: Kansas State
8 – preseason: Oklahoma State midseason: Texas Tech
9 – preseason: TCU midseason: TCU
10 – preseason: Kansas State midseason: Oklahoma State
Next: Rick Pitino, colleagues part of broken system
This season has been totally unpredictable with six number one teams and no clear favorite to win it all. The Big 12 is shaping up to be no different, so this list could change radically depending on teams going hot or cold in the last few weeks.