Let the madness begin! We are just days away from conference tournaments tipping off, with MVC basketball starting on Thursday in St. Louis.
Wichita State enters as the prohibitive favorite one-seed after finishing 16-2 in conference play. The backcourt duo of Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker have powered the Shockers through the year. They also have one of the best defenses in America to help keep the team in games.
Challenging them are several strong teams in Evansville, Illinois State, and Northern Iowa. All three have had bursts this year that put them in the conversation for potential spoiler. Evansville is the strongest contender, but defending champions UNI will have something to say about things as well. For their part, Illinois State plays great defense to keep them in the mix.
Evansville’s Edigijus Mockevicius is potentially the best professional prospect in the whole tournament. The Lithuanian senior averages 16.6 ppg, 14 rpg, and 2.8 bpg while shooting 66% from the field. The big man will be one of the big difference makers in the MVC. He’s got dynamic D.J. Balentine as a teammate who averages over 20 points and four assists.
The first round matchup that I find most interesting is Illinois State-Indiana State. The two split the regular season, with the rubber match on Friday. Illinois St has the edge with a better record, but this would be the biggest upset in the first round and the one most likely to happen given how truly close these teams are in statistical output.
With all that, let’s rank the order of teams as I think they’ll finish in the MVC.
Next: 10: Bradley Braves
10: Bradley Braves
The Braves managed to finish one game out of last in MVC play at 3-15. They will open the conference tournament Thursday against the 8th seed Loyala Chicago.
Bradley is quite simply one of the worse teams in America. They are 337th in KenPom, have the 351st adjusted offense (last among all D1 schools), and 298th in RPI, have no players who average double figures in scoring, and shoot 38% as a team. The Braves’ one redeeming quality is the 96th best adjusted defense, but even that won’t help them overcome being one of the 20 worst performing programs this year.
The only chance Bradley has to advance is for Donte Thomas and Luuk van Bree to power them through the first game. Thomas is a decent forward, averaging nine and six while shooting 44%. Van Bree is the team’s best shooter from distance at 36%. If one of those two can get hot, it could make up for the team’s utter lack of offense from the other eight rotation players, most of whom are true freshman.
Next: 9: Drake Bulldogs
9: Drake Bulldogs
Drake miserably finished last in the MVC with a record of 2-16. They take on seventh-seed Missouri State, a team that beat them twice during the regular season. Where Bradley is terrible, Drake is just bad.
The Bulldogs are 275th in KenPom, 192nd in adjusted offense, 321st in adjusted defense, and 298th in RPI. They do have the luxury of three players averaging double figures in Reed Timmer, Kale Abrahamson, and Graham Woodward. Timmer in particular could make the conferences second or third team when postseason awards are doled out.
Drake shoots a nice 39% from three, and while it is hard to lose to the same team three times in one year, I’m not sure they have enough beyond their big three to beat Missouri State. They will have to rely on their outside shot and hope that Abrahamson can use his versatile size to frustrate the Bears in their third meeting.
Even if Drake pulls it out over the seven-seed, they will get to play a potentially dominant Evansville team in the quarterfinals as their reward. One tourney win is all this team gets this year.
Next: 8: Missouri State Bears
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8: Missouri State Bears
The Bears managed to finish seventh in the MVC at 8-10 and open against the aforementioned Bulldogs. Missouri State is only marginally better than Drake, ranking 238th in KenPom, 272nd in adjusted offense, 200th in adjusted d, and 236th in RPI.
Like Drake, the team also features three double figure scorers with Dequon Miller, Chris Hendrix, and Camyn Boone. The team shoots much worse than Drake, but still get the edge in their matchup due to better rebounding numbers.
Assuming the Bears can prevent Drake from heating up, their slightly better numbers on defense and the boards will keep them from dropping their opening game. Camyn Boone (pictured) will need to be the workhorse as the squad’s best rebounder and shooter.
Next: 7: Loyola Chicago Ramblers
7: Loyola Chicago Ramblers
The Loyala Chicago Ramblers started rough, but won four of their last seven to finish 7-11, good for eight in conference play. Their first game is against Bradley, who split the regular season contests. Interestingly enough, the two teams won on each other’s homecourts, so anything goes in the rubber match.
Loyola starts to represent the conferences mediocre teams. The Ramblers finished 184th in KenPom overall, 284th in AdjO, 98th in AdjD, and 231st in RPI. Another three players average double figures, Montel James, Milton Doyle, and Devon Turk lead the team in scoring. They are average shooters, bad rebounders, but good at slowing down the pace to an almost slovenly 65.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
Against a horrible offense team like Bradley, Loyola should have little trouble in keeping the Braves from dictating pace, though both teams prefer to play snail ball.
Nobody stands out as a leader among the Ramblers, but senior Earl Peterson is one of the team’s best outside shooters and scored 15 points in a near upset over Evansville in the team’s regular season finale.
Next: 6: Illinois State Redbirds
6: Illinois State Redbirds
Illinois State will be the big letdown for this year’s tournament. The Redbirds finished third in the regular season at 12-6 after losing their finale against Wichita St. They will square off against the Indiana State Sycamores on the tournament’s second day.
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The team sits 114th in KenPom, 168th in AdjO, 73rd in AdjD, and 109th in RPI. ISU has four players in double figures, led by DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell‘s 14.1 per contest. Overall, the team doesn’t shoot well from the floor, but they are exceedingly deep (9 players averaging 16+ minutes) and play fine defense.
I’m picking the Redbirds for my opening round upset because these games are on a neutral court. Something crazy typically happens in intense tournaments and Illinois State losing to start is the likeliest thing happening that I can see.
This squad can win if they can keep the Sycamores from dictating a higher tempo and shoot better than 34% as a team.
Next: 5: Southern Illinois Salukis
5: Southern Illinois Salukis
The Southern Illinois Salukis finished fifth in the conference at 11-7 after beating Missouri State in the team’s finale.
Their first game is against Northern Iowa in what might be the most entertaining game of the first round. SIU is 146th in KenPom, 123rd AdjO, 190th AdjD, and 129th in RPI. The team only has two guys in double figures, but feature a pure scorer in Anthony Beane. The guard averages 19.4 ppg on 43% shooting, including 38% from range.
Beyond Beane-ball, the other seven rotation players shoot an average 45% from the floor and have ok rebounding statistics.
The Salukis will be the final team to lose their opening game, but in a high-scoring affair. They split the regular season, so there isn’t the pressure of a third win or loss, but I’m not sure SIU can shoot well enough from distance to overpower the Panthers. This game will largely depend on who gets hot and in that regard, I don’t trust the Salukis.
Next: 4: Indiana State Sycamores
4: Indiana State Sycamores
The Sycamores from Terra Haute, IN finished sixth in the MVC after finishing 8-10. As mentioned above, I believe this team will upset Illinois State in their first game to probably play Evansville in the semifinals.
Indiana State is 177th in KenPom, with the 265th AdjO, 105th AdjD, and 182nd in RPI. The team does posses the 71st best adjusted tempo, averaging around 71 possessions a game. Devonte Brown, Brenton Scott, and Kristian Smith lead the team in scoring.
As with many mid-majors, this team plays a lot of bodies and go about nine deep, but nobody shoot particularly well. The team compensates with solid rebounding numbers, 93rd in American per ESPN.
The dangerous part of Indiana State’s game is, aside from just 40% shooting as a team, is that they play a lot of hero ball. The Sycamores are one of America’s worst distributing teams, so they are in big trouble if shots don’t fall with their pace. I believe they have enough firepower to upset the Redbirds, but there aren’t enough numbers to indicate more than one win, especially over the second-seeded Evansville Aces.
Next: 3: Wichita State Shockers
3: Wichita State Shockers
Wichita State is the clear favorite. They have one of America’s best backcourts in Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, one of the conferences top newcomers in big man Anton Grady, and a promising shooter in former Jayhawk Connor Frankamp.
The Shockers will take on the winner of Loyola-Bradley and will win that game handily before playing the winner of UNI-SIU. WSU is 8th in KenPom, 57 in AdjO, 1st in AdjD, and 41st in RPI. Baker and VanVleet are the only two double figure scorers for a squad that plays nine guys most nights. Howver, only Vanvleet shoots above 36% from the three-point line. The rest of the team rebounds very well, so opponents have to hit tough first shots with few second chance opportunities.
All signs would point to WSU claiming their second tournament title in three years, but I’m calling a UNI upset in the quarterfinals. The two split the regular season on each other’s home floor and both enter on winning streaks.
As important as guards are in tournament play, WSU-UNI will rely on how well Grady and the rest of the team can stop the Panthers from getting hot. Both teams love to slow the pace down, but I’m taking offense over defense in the first MVC semifinal.
Next: 2: Northern Iowa Panthers
2: Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Iowa overcame a horrendous 2-6 start in the Missouri Valley to finish fifth at 11-7. The Panthers closed out their regular season by winning three straight to snag the fourth seed, where they will play Southern Illinois.
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UNI will more than likely win that opening game and upset Wichita State in the semis to reach the title game. Norther Iowa won this tournament a year ago and will be itching to repeat despite longer odds. The Panthers are 88th overall on KenPom.com, 124th in AdjO, 69th in AdjD, and 94th in RPI.
Compared to the eight and nine deep teams in this tournament, Northern Iowa’s bench seems short at only seven consistent contributors. Four players, Wes Washpun, Matt Bohannon, Paul Jesperson, and Jeremy Morgan, carry the team through most situations. All are fine shooters and good rebounders even though none of them are taller than 6’6″. UNI shoots the conferences best three point percentage at 38%.
While the Panthers have played disappointingly at times this year, the hold the edge in wins over the RPI top 50 at 3-1 over WSU’s 1-5, though WSU did have an injury to VanVleet that kept him out for several of those games.
I still like UNI to pull the shocker and advance to the title game because when they hit shots, almost no team in America can stop them. North Carolina and Iowa State were unfortunate recipients of such performances in December. The balance that UNI has shown at times gives me enough reason to pick them over somewhat top-heavy Wichita State. Unfortunately, I don’t think the team has enough firepower to overcome who I think will win the conferences automatic bid.
Next: 1: Evansville Aces
1: Evansville Aces
Evansville is my pick to win this year’s MVC tournament for the first time in school history. They finished second in conference play at 12-6.
The Aces won four of their last five, but dropped their home final to UNI to get swept in the season series. Evansville will open play against the winner of Missouri State-Drake. The Aces should win that game and defeat the winner of ISU-ISU to take on UNI in the championship.
Evansville finished the regular season at 89th in KenPom, 131st in AdjO, 65th in AdjD, and 92nd in RPI. Balentine and Mockevicius are the two leading scorers, with Jaylon Brown in double figures at 10.5 per game. The team only plays six guys, but manage to shoot an efficient 50% as a team and rebound well with so few bodies.
I like Evansville over UNI here because none of the Panthers will be able to stop Mockevicius. He’s the best big man in the entire tournament without question. He also averaged 14 points and 14.5 rebounds in the two previous matchups. He’ll need help from Balentine, Adam Wing, and Mislav Brzoja from the arc to prevent UNI from clogging the paint too heavily.
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If the three sharpshooters can keep UNI honest, the inside outside game Evansville possesses means that they should hoist their first Missouri Valley trophy in a potential barn burner.