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AAC Basketball: Tournament preview and predictions

By Steven Massucci

Mar 15, 2015; Hartford, CT, USA; The Southern Methodist Mustangs celebrate after defeating the Connecticut Huskies during the final round of the American Conference Tournament at XL Center. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports at XL Center.
Mar 15, 2015; Hartford, CT, USA; The Southern Methodist Mustangs celebrate after defeating the Connecticut Huskies during the final round of the American Conference Tournament at XL Center. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports at XL Center. /
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Nov 13, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats forward Octavius Ellis (2) dunks the ball in the second half against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Fifth Third Arena. The Bearcats won 97-72. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 13, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats forward Octavius Ellis (2) dunks the ball in the second half against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Fifth Third Arena. The Bearcats won 97-72. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

1. Cincinnati Bearcats

Mick Cronin and the Bearcats finished the season at 22-9 and 12-6 in the conference. Six of their nine losses were by four points or fewer, with five of those being by a single basket.

In Cronin’s 10th year in Cincinnati, he runs out a very experienced squad every game. They return all contributors from last year’s 2nd round loss to undefeated Kentucky in the NCAA tournament.

Their backcourt is led by junior Troy Caupain, who is trying to make it to his 3rd straight NCAA tournament. He leads his team in scoring and has the most assists per game of any point guard in the AAC tournament.

Senior shooting guard Farad Cobb is lights out from behind the arc, making 40% of his threes. He has a killer instinct and has put games away simply by catching fire.

The Cinci frontcourt compliments their solid guard play. Senior Octavius Ellis is a beast down low at 6’10”, averaging 10 points and eight rebounds per game. Standout sophomore Gary Clark averages 11 points and nine rebounds per game.

Senior Shaq Thomas is a key starting forward for the Bearcats, trying to get to his 4th straight NCAA tournament. Thomas missed the last three games of the season with a groin injury. Coach Cronin fully expects him to be back in the lineup for the start of the tournament, but it is surely something to keep a close eye on.

UC boasts the best defense in the American conference and one of the most stifling in the entire nation. They rank 5th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Furthermore, Ellis and Clark are the anchors of one of NCAA basketball’s premier shot blocking teams.

Prediction:

Quarterfinals Win vs. UConn – In a matchup that pits the conference’s two best defenses, Cincinnati leads the season series 2-0. Thomas was injured early on in the last game between these teams, but freshman Jared Evans and senior center Coreontae DeBerry stepped up nicely and the Bearcats didn’t miss a beat.

UConn is at its best when they run the floor, but the Bearcats league best rebounding margin and slow pace usually prevent this from happening.

Unless the Huskies get hot from beyond the arc, this is Cincinnati’s game to lose.

Semifinals Win vs. Temple – Cincinnati demonstrated that they can be vulnerable to good three point shooting teams this year and that showed in a couple early season losses to Temple.

Since then, the Bearcat offense has vastly improved and the defense has become even more consistently dominant. Temple’s outside shooters simply don’t make shots at an efficient enough rate to score enough to beat UC, who should avenge their losses and show that they’re playing their best basketball in March.

AAC Championship Win vs. Tulsa – Tulsa is as perfect a matchup as any for this Cincinnati team. The Golden Hurricane guards must penetrate the paint in order for their offense to hum. The Bearcats imposing frontcourt simply won’t allow that to happen.

In a 19 point win on January 3rd, Cinci forced the Tulsa guards to hit perimeter shots to win. Tulsa only hit 19% of their threes on 4-of-21 shooting. Tulsa avenged this loss with a two point overtime win at home on February 18th.

Expect a neutral site game to tip Cincinnati’s way, giving the Bearcat’s an American Athletic Conference championship.

More busting brackets: Big Ten Tournament preview

A win would secure an automatic bid for this already tournament tested team and might even set them up nicely for a little run in the Big Dance.