A big year looms for Kansas State basketball as they look to exit the Big 12 cellar.
The Kansas State Wildcats have a tall task ahead of them. They finished just 5-13 (8th place finish) in the Big 12 last year. They graduated three guys and lost a third to the transfer market. Most of their primary rotation still returns with the goal of winning a few more games and saving head coach Bruce Weber’s job.
Last year’s team went about 10 deep most nights. They return 73 percent of their scoring and 72 percent of their rebounding. The guys remaining from last season also formed a top 30 adjusted defensive unit.
Clearly, there are a lot of pieces left in Manhattan to try to climb up the standings. How the remaining eight guys combine with six freshman (two redshirts) will go a long way in determining how this season goes for KSU.
Kansas State has the potential to be more competitive with an intact rotation, but I am not sure the talent gets them a better finish when the dust settles. They have some intriguing pieces, but a number of freshman might make up a large part of the rotation.
The Wildcats are one of the bigger wildcards in Big 12 play this year.
Next: Point guard - Kamau Stokes
Point guard: Kamau Stokes
There are a few options at point guard, but sophomore Kamau Stokes seems to be the likely candidate right now. He was Kansas State’s best distributing guard and three point shooter a year ago. His development will be huge if the team wants compete against multiple NBA-ready Big 12 floor generals.
The 6’0″ guard averaged 9.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.0 steals a game last year. He shot a sub par 34 percent from deep and 36 percent overall. He was one of the least efficient players to see regular time, though he missed the last two months of the year with a knee injury.
If he starts, it will be important to see if his injury has affected his defense at all. His scoring will likely be secondary to improved assist numbers and a steady presence on the ball.
He is one of three important sophomores on this roster.
Next: Backup point guard - Barry Brown
Backup point guard: Barry Brown
If Kamau Stokes can’t start right away or struggles early, look for fellow second-year guard Barry Brown to take the reigns. He showed some serious potential in his first year that could give fans hope for his upcoming season.
The 6’3″, 195 pound guard averaged 8.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.2 steals per game in year one. His shooting was about as good as Stokes’ – 34 percent from three point range and 35 percent overall.
He played the fourth most minutes and took the third most shots on the team out of sheer necessity. The lack of production elsewhere forced Weber to play the freshman a lot when he may not have been completely ready.
Having a year to work on his game has me intrigued as to what Brown will do differently this year.
25-30 minutes per game is where I peg Brown right now. A scoring bump to around 12-13 points seems possible as well.
His shooting and distributing will be the most important aspects to improve upon if he is to avoid becoming a one-dimensional slasher. He was an Big 12 All-Newcomer pick last year and will get plenty of opportunities to do even more in 2016-17.
Next: Shooting guard - Wesley Iwundu
Shooting guard: Wesley Iwundu
Senior swing man Wesley Iwundu is perhaps the best Wildcat coming back this year. He was one of the few bright spots in the rotation last year en route to a Third Team All-Conference selection.
The 6’7″ small forward averaged a well-rounded 11.9 points, 4.5 boards, 3.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Iwundu was a complete player last year who did just about everything except block or shoot threes (he shot just 20 percent from distance on 30 attempts).
Even without the range, I am putting Iwundu at shooting guard as he is the best player with the most experience on the perimeter. He was also the best distributor, which was one of the team’s weakest statistic aside from pure scoring.
I can see a similar or even better stat line this year as Iwundu pushes for a Second Team All-Conference selection or better. He is the linchpin of the entire Kansas State rotation and his play could determine how the team performs most nights.
Next: Backup shooting guard - Brian Patrick
Backup shooting guard: Brian Patrick
The backup unit needs an infusion of energy. For this reason alone, I’ll go with freshman Brian Patrick from Fort Lauderdale, FL as an important member of the second unit.
The 6’5″ 180 pound freshman wasn’t highly recruited, but has a good frame for his age that will help him compete at the Big 12 level. Patrick averaged nearly 18 points a game in his final season of high school basketball, while shooting 52 percent from the field and 42 percent from deep. He will likely not shoot that well in his first year against experienced defenders, but is a solid offensive prospect on the wing.
Patrick could play very few minutes to start the season. The other options to using a freshman is to go with Barry Brown as the backup at this position. The team could also go big outside with a few guys yet to be mentioned.
Next: Small forward - Dean Wade
Small forward: Dean Wade
Dean Wade is another one of the key Kansas State sophomores. The Saint John, KS native was a pleasant surprise for last year’s squad as a freshman. He is likely to be an even more integral part of the rotation in 2016-17.
Related Story: Kansas State bringing in the reinforcements
The 6’8″ forward put up fine averages of 9.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He was the team’s best scorer after Wesley Iwundu and the now-graduated Justin Edwards.
Wade had several strong performances last year that contributed to wins that the team might not have gotten otherwise. His development is one of the most important on KSU, especially if he pairs with Iwundu to go very big on the outside. He can’t shoot particularly well from deep, but he hit just enough threes to prevent teams from letting him stand outside and fire.
Wade played just over 26 minutes a night last season and I think he will play at least that much this year. He was the team’s other All-Newcomer selection, an accolade that likely has fans excited in Manhattan.
Next: Backup small forward - Xavier Sneed
Backup small forward: Xavier Sneed
Kansas State’s lack of talented depth on the perimeter is such that yet another freshman could see major minutes. Xavier Sneed is the highest rated recruit in Kansas State’s 2016 class and has more potential than the experienced reserves.
The three-star small forward had a tremendous high school career in Missouri, where he averaged 20.2 points on 53.4 percent shooting as a senior. He has a solid frame at 6’5″ 180 pounds. He might be a bit light to guard Big 12 wings, but he looks like he might play an important scoring role going forward.
Adjusting to high-major basketball is always a crap shoot, so maybe pencil in 10-15 minutes for Sneed until he gets his feet under him. 5-to-7 points as a freshman seems likely, unless he really comes out hot.
Next: Power forward - D.J. Johnson
Power forward: D.J. Johnson
D.J. Johnson is someone I’m very excited to see this year. He was the team’s best shot blocker a year ago and shot the best percentage of any Wildcat. Getting him more touches in the post is likely a big priority for coach Bruce Weber.
The 6’9″, 250 pound bruiser averaged 9.3 points and 5.2 boards per game as one of the more efficient and consistent Kansas State threats. Johnson also swatted 29 shots, tops on the team. He is one of the most experienced forwards left in the Big 12, so he could feast upon some of the new youth in the league.
11-to-13 points and 6-to-7 rebounds is my initial projection for Johnson. Blocks still are his primary focus, but he will do plenty of other things well in the front court.
Next: Backup power forward - James Love III
Backup power forward: James Love III
The front court could be a major struggle unless this team goes small. D.J. Johnson is the only player taller than 6’8″ returning from last year. With the relative lack of height coming back, freshmen might just have a chance to edge him.
James Love III is a promising forward that could see time.
Love, out of Miramar, FL has the size to be a factor early on. He is listed at 6’10”, 220 pounds, which gives him a strong frame to try and defend Big 12 posts.
He averaged around five blocks a game as a high school senior. Love likely needs to add weight and a more polished offensive game, but he looks like a potential rim protector. He will also need to rebound somewhat effectively as the team was just average in this area in 2015-16.
Next: Center - Dante Williams
Center: Dante Williams
Dante Williams is listed as a freshman, but he has the benefit of a redshirt year with the program. That “year off” gave him experience practicing against high major talent. Williams might need to start right away with a lack of big men on roster.
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The Arlington, TX native stands a massive 7’0″, 255 pounds. He averaged 10.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game as he garnered accolades in Texas. Like James Love III, Williams’ calling card early will be defense.
The majority of the team’s punch will come from the perimeter, so the big men will be asked to just stop opponents at the hoop. Williams’ size alone is going to be a serious deterrent for some guards.
Like many Wildcats, Williams poses possible question marks. The Wildcats don’t even have a true backup at the center position, which means they will likely have a rotation depending on who is on the court at the power forward position.
Next: Projecting Syracuse's rotation
Overall, several of the returners are going to be fine, but their backups are an enigma. As many as four true freshman could play, or none. Bruce Weber has a tall task ahead of him to integrate all the pieces to try and save his increasingly precarious job in Manhattan.