Louisville will finish towards the top of the ACC once again, but how will they adjust to life without star Donovan Mitchell? Who will take a step forward and replace his production?
Louisville enjoyed a strong 16-17 regular season before ultimately bowing out in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to Michigan. While the Cardinals did not advance as far as anticipated, they flexed a dominant defense and had multiple players breakout.
One of those breakout players, Donovan Mitchell, improved so much in his sophomore season that he was selected in the lottery of the NBA Draft. Mitchell averaged 15.9 ppg, but scouts were most intrigued by his combination of improved three-point shooting, elite length, and top-notch athleticism. The talented 6’3 combo guard not only led Louisville offensively but also was a key cog defensively. His departure cannot be overstated.
Mitchell was not the only Cardinal in the regular rotation to leave the program. Mangok Mathiang has exhausted his eligibility after five years with Louisville. The 6’10 center averaged 7.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and 1.1 bpg as a senior and provided a defensive presence inside.
Jaylen Johnson has also left the program, but he surprisingly left with eligibility remaining. Johnson averaged 8.0 ppg and 5.8 rpg as a junior and paired with Mathiang to form an imposing frontcourt.
Even though Louisville lost some key pieces from last season, the Cardinals’ replacements will be more than capable of filling the necessary voids. While Louisville’s calling card was their interior defense last season, this season they will emphasize their bevy of talented wings who bring length and versatility. The Louisville defense should be as strong as ever even though they lose three quality defenders in Mitchell, Johnson, and Mathiang.
This article will analyze Louisville’s starters, reserves, and top non-conference games. It will conclude with a team overview which will include Louisville’s projected placement nationally and in the ACC.
****Update from Editors**** This was written before the FBI investigation, so keep this in mind.
Louisville Starters
Quentin Snider– Snider will be Louisville’s starting PG for the third straight season. The 6’2 senior averaged 12.4 ppg and 4.1 apg while shooting 37% from three. Snider also owned a superb 2.73:1 assist to turnover ratio which shows his ability to value possessions and take care of the ball. Expect another strong season from the talented lead guard. Snider is extremely undervalued nationally and it will be interesting to see if he takes a bigger scoring role to fill the void left by Donovan Mitchell. Either way, Snider should earn more recognition as one of the best collegiate point guards.
VJ King– King will benefit the most from Mitchell’s early entry into the NBA Draft. The 6’7 wing scored 5.5 ppg in just over 13 minutes per game but should see a much bigger role this season. King could easily eclipse 26 minutes per game and average double figures. King fits the mold of the coveted 3 and D player as he shoots a great percentage from three (42%) and has the length to be a good wing defender. However, King is not just a shooter, he can put the ball on the floor and get his own shot which is something he will be asked to do more frequently this season. The talented sophomore should be on every breakout player list and do not be surprised if he appears on draft boards in June.
Deng Adel– Adel is the most versatile Cardinal and will split time between the two forward positions. The 6’7 forward is an excellent athlete who excels in transition and has the body to finish in the half court. Adel also has shown a proficient jump shot, 35% from three on 44 makes. This skillset has earned Adel some NBA Draft buzz. The talented junior averaged 12.1 ppg and 4.5 rpg last season and should see more touches this season.
Raymond Spalding– Spalding will play both the power forward and center positions, but will likely start at PF. Spalding is an athletic 6’10 big man who will see a larger role since Jaylen Johnson and Mangok Mathiang have gone pro. He is not offensively gifted, but his mobility and rebounding ability makes him a useful piece. Spalding averaged 5.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg as a sophomore and it will be interesting to see if he developed a more polished offensive game this summer.
Anas Mahmoud– Mahmoud came on strong towards the end of last season and earned a starting role for Louisville. The mobile seven-footer has steadily improved each season and should establish himself as one of the top defensive centers in the country this season. Mahmoud is an excellent rim protector as he averages 2.1 blocks per game and was fourth in the country with a 12.1% block rate. Offensively, Mahmoud is mostly limited to lobs and dump offs, but his defensive value makes him a really appealing player. He averaged 5.7 ppg and 4 rpg last season.
Overall, Louisville’s starting lineup should have the Cardinals among the top defensive squads in the nation. Their mix of interior length (Spalding and Mahmoud) with perimeter length (Adel and King) will make their opponent’s lives extremely difficult. Expect a combination of Snider, Adel, and King to make up for Mitchell’s production, but his loss will definitely sting.
Louisville Reserves
Brian Bowen– Bowen joined Louisville late in the recruiting cycle and will likely be the Cards’ sixth man. The 6’7 wing had a wild recruitment where Arizona, Oregon, Michigan St, Creighton, and DePaul were all rumored to lead at one point during last spring. Bowen adds even more length to the perimeter rotation and will add a scoring punch off the bench. Expect Louisville to play King, Adel, and Bowen simultaneously in order to disrupt opposing teams and increase their versatility.
Malik Williams– Williams is the second elite recruit who should come off the bench for Louisville this season. Louisville will likely use Williams as the backup center and the heir to senior Anas Mahmoud. The 6’11 freshman is mobile for his size and can block shots, but also flashes a face-up jump shot. This could allow him to play with Mahmoud in bigger lineups and length of this pair would keep opposing teams completely out of the paint.
Jordan Nwora– Nwora gives Louisville a different look in the frontcourt since he has the ability to stretch the defense with his long-range shooting. At 6’8, Nwora will likely play most of his minutes as a stretch four as King, Adel, and Bowen look to be in front of him on the wing depth chart. This should be a positive for Nwora since it differentiates him from Spalding, Mahmoud, and Williams which will earn him more minutes. Expect 12-15 minutes per game for the freshman sharpshooter.
Darius Perry– Perry will operate as the backup PG behind senior Quentin Snider. The 6’2 freshman is known for his ability to score the basketball and could play alongside Snider in smaller lineups. While Perry is a top 100 recruit in his own right, he has a pair of talented 2018 guards and a five-star 2019 guard breathing down his neck. It will be crucial for Perry to make a good first impression as a freshman and it will be interesting to see how he plays with all this pressure.
Ryan McMahon and Dwayne Sutton– McMahon and Sutton are the veterans of Louisville’s bench, which could earn them some early playing time. McMahon played sporadically last season and was used when Louisville needed an additional shooter. The 6’0 sophomore should play a similar role as the sharpshooter off the bench. Dwayne Sutton is a transfer from UNC-Asheville where he averaged 12 ppg and 7.7 rpg as a freshman. The tough 6’5 wing gives Louiville no another player who can play multiple positions. Sutton should play a small consistent role off the bench.
Lance Thomas– Thomas will provide depth at both the four and the five. The 6’8 freshman looks to be a solid long-term piece for Louisville, but minutes will be hard to come by this season.
Overall, Louisville’s bench is young but talented. The Cardinals will be one of the few teams to bring multiple elite recruits off the bench in Brian Bowen and Malik Williams. Guys like Dwayne Sutton, Jordan Nwora, and Darius Perry each fill a necessary role on this deep roster. Bench play should be a major strength for the Cardinals.
Non-Conference Breakdown
Dec 29 @ Kentucky
This is clearly the most interesting and most important non-conference game for Louisville. While this annual intense rivalry game is always worth watching, the stakes are even higher as both teams should be ranked in the top 15. This matchup will also feature great perimeter length for both teams as Kentucky’s Diallo, Knox, and Vanderbilt will face off against Louisville’s King, Adel, and Bowen. If Louisville can grab a win on the road, it will set them up for a very high seed in March.
Dec 3 Seton Hall
Seton Hall is a talented veteran team, but they will not have the rebounding advantage that they are used to. This is a bad matchup for the Pirates on paper since their weakness at PG will be exposed by Louisville’s pressure defense. It will be harder to play through Delgado since Mahmoud’s shot blocking ability will alter shots inside. Louisville has another opportunity to pick up a top 15 win.
Nov 28 @Purdue
Purdue is a smaller team (even though they have 7’2 Isaac Haas at center) that could struggle on the glass against a longer Louisville team. Haas is not a great rebounder out of his area and the much more mobile Louisville bigs will take advantage. Having long athletic players like King and Adel guard Carsen Edwards should limit his scoring and hamstring the Purdue offense. Road games are always a challenge, but this matchup favors the Cardinals.
Dec 9 Indiana
Indiana looks like a NIT/Bubble team on paper, but they have some talented upperclassmen in Rob Johnson and Juwan Morgan. Sophomores De’Ron Davis and Curtis Jones will be on breakout player lists, but they would have to make a huge jump to compete with Louisville. Grabbing a borderline top 50 win would only help Louisville’s resume.
Borderline top 100 games: Nov 12 George Mason, Dec 16 N Memphis, Dec 20 Albany, Dec 23 GCU
All four of these teams have a chance to finish inside the top 100, but most likely, they finish right outside the cutoff. The Dec 23rd game against Grand Canyon has the makings of a trap game since GCU has a veteran team and the game is right before Christmas break. However, the Cardinals have much more talent and should handle the Antelopes.
Louisville Overview
Louisville has effectively reloaded and has created a talented and balanced roster from top to bottom. Their strength lies in their group of wings which gives the Cardinals versatility to play different lineups. Deng Adel can slide to the four in smaller lineups without Louisville having to worry about being exposed inside and VJ King can use his size to their advantage, at the two, in bigger lineups.
The Cardinals also have a strong group of interior players led by senior Anas Mahmoud. Between Mahmoud on the interior and the collection of long wing defenders, Louisville will undoubtedly have a strong defense.
Louisville has a legitimate chance to win the ACC regular season, but I have them finishing second behind Duke. It is hard to pick against a roster as talented as Duke’s, but Louisville will give them a close race. Louisville and Duke are in their own tier in the ACC as there is a significant margin between them and teams like UNC, Miami, Notre Dame, and Virginia who are all packed into the back half of the top 25.
Nationally, I have Louisville as the No. 5 best team, only behind Arizona, Duke, Kansas, and Michigan St. When analyzing this Louisville team, it is clear that the Cardinals will be a major factor in both the ACC race and the national championship race.
Louisville fans should be extremely optimistic about this group and, with a strong 2018 recruiting class already taking shape, the future looks just as bright.