A little research can go a long way towards you winning your bracket challenge. Researching past national champions, you will find that most of them have a few things in common.
There is no perfect blueprint for predicting which of the sixty-eight teams will be crowned national champions, but according to Joe Boozell of NCAA.com looking at the last ten title winners will give you some guidelines on which to base your choice.
In his article, Boozell lists the following five elements that make the criteria of a national champion:
- “They’ve had top-seven offenses…. Or their name is Connecticut”
- “They’ve had a top-20 defense”
- “They’ve had at least one senior who was a valuable contributor (but usually more)”
- “They had a really good point guard”
- “They had an awesome crunch-time scorer”
As Boozell mentions, in the two years that Connecticut was crowned champions their offenses were ranked 19th and 39th, respectively.
Scouring this year’s bracket and you will only find one that meets all five elements of this criteria.
However, it’s never a smart idea to put all of your eggs in one basket, and if you are in a bracket challenge with a small number of people, making a contrarian selection can set you apart from the rest of the participants.
For those reasons, we will look just outside of the offensive,
and defensive rankings mentioned to examine four teams that are the closest to meeting all five standards.
*Spoiler Alert* Only one of the four teams is a number one seed.
Villanova, the lone one seed boasts the top offense in the country and seem to have the easiest path to the final four.
The Wildcats are one of the most well-rounded teams in the country topping the KenPom rankings in adjusted offensive efficiency.
However, the Wildcats are not the team that meets all of the aforementioned criteria. They fall short in two measurements, ranking just outside the top twenty in defensive efficiency, coming in at twenty-second and not having any contributing seniors.
The latter of which does not worry me about the Wildcats.
Villanova might not have any seniors, but they do have three experienced players who were contributors on the 2016 national championship team in Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Phil Booth.
Those three players along with Donte DiVincenzo will have no trouble leading the Wildcats, should they find themselves in a dogfight with a scrappy team such as West Virginia or Wichita State.
Having an elite point guard is a must to contend for a national title and Wooden Award candidate Jalen Brunson might be the best in the country.
Crunch time is an area where Villanova can excel. Brunson is undoubtedly the leader and first option in end of game situations, but they have a plethora of weapons that don’t allow opponents to key in on one player defensively.
Purdue has fallen out of the spotlight over the last few weeks of the season, but the numbers say they have the potential to bring a title to West Lafayette.
Purdue hasn’t received much attention since enduring a three-game skid late in the season and bowing out of the Big Ten tournament against eventual champion, Michigan.
The Boilermakers come into the Big Dance ranked second in offensive efficiency and twenty-eighth defensively according to KenPom.
Close enough to the established criteria that they are serious contenders.
While they don’t have much tournament experience, the Boilers biggest strength might be their senior-laden lineup.
Seniors Isaac Haas, Dakota Mathias, Vincent Edwards, and PJ Thompson led Purdue on a school record nineteen-game winning streak not losing a single game in the months of December and January.
Throw sophomore point guard Carsen Edwards into the mix and Purdue is an offensive juggernaut.
Carsen Edwards, while not as well-known as other players around the country checks off the “Have a really good point guard box.”
Per sports-reference.com, Edwards ranked second in the Big Ten in points scored, and both offensive and total win shares.
When Purdue finds itself in dire straights, they find their answer in Dakota Mathias.
Mathias finished third in the Big Ten sinking ninety three-pointers this season, but no one shot it at a better rate. Mathias hit the three at a 46.4% clip this season good for first in the Big Ten and ninth nationally, per sports-reference.com
There’s a possibility that Purdue could meet up with Villanova with a trip to the final four on the line, which would certainly be a viewers delight.
Possibly the most talented team in the country, Duke is the one team that meets the criteria in each area. Don’t expect an early exit from the Blue Devils this year.
After suffering through the new bracket reveal format, one of the first potential eye-catching matchups viewers noticed was a sweet sixteen game between Duke and Michigan State.
After fixing some early season defensive problems Duke is a top ten team in KenPoms offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, coming in at third and seventh.
Grayson Allen, the lone senior on Duke’s roster this season, checks off two boxes for the Blue Devils.
Allen contributed 17.9 points per forty minutes this season, the lowest mark of his career.
However, he ultimately transformed this Duke team halfway through the season when he took over as the primary ball handler.
We know that Duke has a plethora of options, Marvin Bagley III and low post mate Wendell Carter Jr. make up one of the most dynamic freshman duos in recent memory, but when the game is on the line put the ball in familiar hands.
As a freshman in the 2015 title game against Wisconsin, Allen came off the bench to score sixteen in the Blue Devils win.
Duke has had their share of letdowns in March, and their path to San Antonio is daunting, but these Blue Devils have the makeup quintessential champion.
Historically the North Carolina has not fared well the year after winning a title. Nevertheless, these Tar Heels should not be taken lightly and are my personal pick to be the last team standing.
The Tar Heels know how to spread the love offensively ranking fourth in KenPoms efficiency rankings, with four players averaging double figures.
The player facilitating the ball for the Tar Heels, Joel Berry II is possibly the best floor general in the nation.
Berry won’t blow you away statistically, but he knows when to take the game over and gets plenty of help from fellow seniors Theo Pinson, Cameron Johnson, and juniors Luke Maye, and Kenny Williams.
The Tar Heels do not lack in the clutch department; Berry II is not shy about rising for a shot with the game on the line and the name Luke Maye still sends a shudder of fear through Kentucky fans.
Next: Three teams with momentum that you should avoid picking
North Carolina does have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of the four teams ranking thirty-fourth and there are a few high-powered offenses the Tar Heels could run into on their way to San Antonio.
If the North Carolina happens to run into either Xavier or Gonzaga who boast top fifteen offenses, it will ready for a shootout.