The situation an NBA Draft prospect lands in is often just as important to their success as their individual talent. These 5 new rookies are headed to the toughest situations from the NBA Draft.
The NBA Draft is a time of promise for every team in the league as each thinks – or hopes – they are getting a future star or someone that can help them win a championship. However, as we know, not every prospect is destined for success. Some of the 60 players selected on Thursday night will end up being labeled as busts.
Scouts tend to overvalue or overestimate a certain player’s talent in some of those scenarios, but often times players don’t work out because of the situation they were drafted into. Ben McLemore came into the league with the potential to be the next Ray Allen (according to some comparisons) but toiled in obscurity and dysfunction in Sacramento which ended up stunting his growth. And he’s only one of many similar stories across the league.
The team you go to is just as important as where you get drafted, and while some players are headed to great situations, others were not as fortunate on Thursday night. Here are the 2018 NBA Draft prospects are headed to the toughest situations.
PG Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks – Round 1, Pick 5
For the record, I love Trae Young as a prospect and think he’s going to be a multi-year All-Star in the NBA. Atlanta, who acquired him in a trade with Dallas, is not going to give him a good start, however. Young already enters the season with sky-high expectations thanks to his incredible freshman season at Oklahoma and the enormous amount of press and attention that came with it. He’ll be one of the prospects people follow very closely from this draft and, initially, it’s not going to be good for him.
The Hawks are going through a full-on rebuild and have no real top-level players. On one hand, that will allow Young to take the reins of the team right away. On the other, he’ll be playing with lesser talent around him on what is projected to be one of the worst teams in the league.
Sound familiar?
This is the problem Young ran into last year at Oklahoma. He carried a lesser Sooners squad to national prominence by mid-season thanks to his magnificent play before tiring out and struggling over the final two months of the season. Unsurprisingly, the rash of criticism surrounding him came during those two months.
Young will get the freedom to work through the bumps that come being a rookie, but those bumps are going to be dissected by the national media. And, with the amount of losing the Hawks are projected to do, it’s not going to make for a good situation.
PG Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers – Round 1, Pick 8
Sexton is another prospect that I love and is someone I think will be very successful in the NBA…with his second team. He’s an extremely competitive and athletic player who is a good defender and is great at attacking the basket. However, he’s not much of a playmaker (just 3.6 assists per game) and is not a good shooter, making just 33.6 percent of his three-pointers last season.
Why are those two factors particularly backbreaking?
If LeBron James stays in Cleveland, Sexton could have a hard time sticking on the court. He needs the ball to be effective and won’t be seeing much of it as long as James is in town. And, considering he won’t be able to space the floor as a shooter, he would provide virtually no value offensively.
If LeBron James leaves Cleveland, Sexton will be the face of the franchise moving forward – something I don’t think he’s cut out to be. He’ll have the ball in his hands, yes, but he’ll be surrounded by players who need him to create for them, which Sexton couldn’t do at Alabama.
In reality, whoever was selected with this pick would be stuck in this terrible situation. It just happened to be Sexton.
CG Josh Okogie, Minnesota Timberwolves – Round 1, Pick 20
No. 20 was a reach for Okogie and, while he has some upside, does not fill any of Minnesota’s needs. The Timberwolves already had a logjam of depth in the backcourt which means that, from a sheer numbers standpoint, he’ll have trouble finding ways to get consistent minutes.
Despite having the physical tools and the look of an NBA player, Okogie largely lacks the skill necessary to make an impact. He really struggles to create shots for himself and, even though Minnesota is hoping he can become a 3-&-D wing, he is not anything close to being a reliable shooter.
So, without any one skill he can rely on and considering where he’ll likely be buried on the depth chart, Okogie will spend a vast majority of the upcoming season in the G-League. Whether or not he develops into a rotation player down the road remains to be seen but this is a puzzling pick. Minnesota has a long and winding road left to reach the top of the Western Conference due to Golden State and Houston but this pick likely will not immediately help with that quest.
CG Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers – Round 1, Pick 24
What in the world are the Blazers doing?!?
Portland is in position to win now after getting the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference last season and, despite picking late in the first round, still had the chance to land a player who could make an immediate impact for them at a position of need. Instead, the Trail Blazers chose to reach for Simons, who is perhaps the biggest project in this class.
Oh, he’s also a guard, which is a position Portland is pretty much set at with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Simons does have plenty of upside and was the No. 7 overall prospect in the 2018 recruiting class (he was committed to Louisville before Rick Pitino was fired) thanks to his athleticism, but opted to enter the draft straight from prep school.
That lack of maturity shows itself both in his game and in his body. Simons really needs to get stronger, improve his jumper, and get much better defensively. Can Simons turn into a quality player? Absolutely. But that’s several years in the future, which could be several years too late for Portland.
PF Moritz Wagner, Los Angeles Lakers – Round 1, Pick 25
Wagner is a skilled offensive player who can stretch defenses with his excellent shooting ability, and his scoring helped spur Michigan to the national championship game. That positive in his game – his shooting – fits into the Lakers’ small-ball system and will help a team that ranked 29th in 3-point shooting last season. However, the negatives in his game make him a bad fit.
Los Angeles wants to get up-and-down the court quickly because they play small-ball and Wagner lacks quickness. That inability really shows itself on the defensive end and, given the way all players in today’s NBA have to be able to defend on the perimeter, Wagner may have a hard time finding consistent minutes.
Wagner can also play a bit soft at times which is reflected in his rebounding – he had 11 games with five or fewer rebounds last season. The 6-11, 231-pounder will find a place in the NBA because of his shooting ability but it’s everything else that could make the Lakers a bad fit for him.
Next: Which prospects are heading to the best situations?
Despite these seemingly difficult situations, though, these are all players that have the potential to be successful. If things go according to plan for them and their respective teams, then they can disregard the potential “bad fit.”