Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do teams stand relative to the field?
Atlantic Coast Conference
Firmly in the field: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Louisville.
Some perspiration: Florida State, NC State, Syracuse
Double the deodorant: Pittsburgh, Clemson.
Virginia Cavaliers (17-1, 5-1 ACC)
NET: 1 | KPI: 4 | SOR: 2 | BPI: 1 | KP: 1 | Sag: 2
Q1: 4-1 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 7-0
Virginia has easily been one of the top teams in the country so far this year. With a ridiculous record and outstanding rankings in predictive metrics, the Cavaliers have proven they are more than deserving of a potential No. 1 seed. And while many might be skeptical of the Cavaliers due to their performance in the NCAA Tournament a year ago, this is a team that nobody will want to see in March. Virginia’s defense is tremendous as always and their offense is playing at a highly-efficient level. With Kyle Guy, DeAndre Hunter, and Ty Jerome leading the way, this team can score with the best of them even if their pace of play is quite slow.
Duke Blue Devils (16-2, 5-1 ACC)
NET: 2 | KPI: 2 | SOR: 3 | BPI: 2 | KP: 2 | Sag: 1
Q1: 6-1 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 5-0
Another extremely dominant team, Duke has somehow met the astronomically high expectations set for them headed into this season. The Blue Demons hold a great record on the whole and their only losses have come at the hands of top-50 teams. They also hold a great collection of wins, especially when you consider that their victory over Kentucky in the season-opener looks better and better by the day. This is a national title contender and everyone knows it.
North Carolina Tar Heels (15-4, 5-1 ACC)
NET: 9 | KPI: 10 | SOR: 8 | BPI: 6 | KP: 7 | Sag: 5
Q1: 5-4 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 4-0
Despite many remaking that North Carolina has not lived up to expectations this season, they do not have a bad loss on their resume. With a great record and strong positioning in quality metrics, it is reasonable to assume that the Tar Heels will land a protected seed in the Big Dance. The team is seemingly just hitting its stride and can be extremely dangerous due to their pace and elite offensive play.
Virginia Tech Hokies (15-3, 4-2 ACC)
NET: 11 | KPI: 34 | SOR: 17 | BPI: 7 | KP: 11 | Sag: 11
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 7-0
With one of the most efficient offenses in the entire nation, it is easy to see why Virginia Tech is rated highly by just about every metric. Their defense has some room for growth but they can hang their hat on creating a ton of turnovers on that end of the floor. The Hokies play at a fairly deliberate pace but get it done on the offensive end. They are definitely in the mix for a protected seed in the Big Dance but need to start defeated top-tier opposition again. They have only one win over a KenPom top-40 win all season and it came on Nov. 18 (over Purdue).
Louisville Cardinals (14-5, 5-1 ACC)
NET: 13 | KPI: 15 | SOR: 24 | BPI: 20 | KP: 16 | Sag: 18
Q1: 4-5 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 4-0
Louisville, in my opinion, has quietly put together one of the best resumes in the country. Aside from one overtime slip-up on the road against Pittsburgh, the Cardinals do not have a bad loss and their top collection of wins are hard to top. To put it simply, not many teams can boast victories over Michigan State and North Carolina, among other KenPom top-50 wins. Head coach Chris Mack has done a tremendous job in Year 1 with the program and they will be in the hunt for a protected seed.
Florida State Seminoles (14-5, 2-4 ACC)
NET: 34 | KPI: 26 | SOR: 28 | BPI: 26 | KP: 32 | Sag: 28
Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 5-0
Florida State entered conference play as one of the under-the-radar favorites to win the league but that has not been the case in recent weeks. The Seminoles began ACC play with four losses in five games, including defeats at the hands of Pittsburgh and Boston College. And while they did secure a home win over Clemson in their last game to possibly get back on track, FSU is still struggling a bit. They have fallen down seed lines in recent weeks and many see them as a No. 7/8 seed at this point in time.
NC State Wolfpack (15-4, 3-3 ACC)
NET: 27 | KPI: 62 | SOR: 26 | BPI: 18 | KP: 31 | Sag: 26
Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 0-1 | Q4: 9-0
NC State is firmly in the NCAA Tournament field at this point in time but their resume is not all that impressive. Despite playing in the ACC, they only one hold one win over a KenPom top-50 team (Auburn) and have lost one disastrous road game to Wake Forest. On the whole, their resume is fairly weak for a team boasting a 15-4 record from a Power 6 conference. Their poor NCSOS will likely come back to haunt them in regards to seeding if they do not start to heat up in conference play. Thankfully, though, the Wolfpack are about to enter a three-game homestand that includes big-time matchups with Virginia and Virginia Tech.
Syracuse Orange (14-5, 5-1 ACC)
NET: 50 | KPI: 29 | SOR: 51 | BPI: 33 | KP: 34 | Sag: 34
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 4-2 | Q4: 5-0
You might not have thought Syracuse would be firmly in the field two weeks ago but yet…here we are. Now 5-1 in ACC play with a road win over Duke, it is impossible to ignore how impressive the Orange have been as of late. In addition to their usually stout defense, ‘Cuse’s offense is starting to pick it up as well and this can be a very dangerous team. On the whole, their three losses to teams outside of the KenPom top-50 hurt their seeding a bit but this is a team that nobody will want to see in March. Syracuse is starting to realize the potential many saw when they were a preseason top-25 team in the country.
Pittsburgh Panthers (12-7, 2-4 ACC)
NET: 58 | KPI: 65 | SOR: 78 | BPI: 74 | KP: 66 | Sag: 65
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 7-1
Pittsburgh is a long-shot to reach the NCAA Tournament but they deserve to be in this bubble watch for how well they have played this season. Head coach Jeff Capel is doing a tremendous job with this team and it is clear that the Panthers are trending in the right direction. After securing early conference wins over Louisville and Florida State, Pittsburgh moved really close to the cutline but back-to-back losses to Syracuse and Duke have them back in a tough spot. Their weak overall rankings are holding back NCAA Tournament potential.
Clemson Tigers (11-7, 1-4 ACC)
NET: 59 | KPI: 56 | SOR: 57 | BPI: 45 | KP: 49 | Sag: 40
Q1: 0-6 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 5-0
Clemson started this season relatively strong at 10-3 but they have really suffered as of late. The Tigers have lost four of their first five ACC games and it is hard to see them turning around the ship anytime soon. With that said, though, they are still rated relatively highly by most metrics and therefore belong near the bubble. With how many elite opportunities are left on the schedule, the Tigers could quickly move into the projected field with just a couple of wins. I’m not sure I see that happening, though.