Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do teams stand relative to the field?
Atlantic 10 Conference
Firmly in the field: None.
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton, Davidson
VCU Rams (13-6, 4-2 A10)
NET: 57 | KPI: 44 | SOR: 61 | BPI: 61 | KP: 58 | Sag: 68
Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 4-0
VCU has quietly put together one of the better mid-major resumes in the country. Despite not necessarily being crowned as one of the favorites in the Atlantic 10, the Rams’ resume speaks for itself. They own a few nice wins over Temple, Texas, and Dayton but also feature three losses to teams outside of the KenPom top-100. But due to lack of opportunities for quality wins and abundance of bad loss potential, it will be difficult for the Rams to secure an at-large bid. In my opinion, though, VCU clearly has the best shot in the A10.
Saint Louis Billikens (14-5, 5-1 A10)
NET: 71 | KPI: 59 | SOR: 65 | BPI: 106 | KP: 100 | Sag: 93
Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 8-0
Saint Louis has an interesting resume. Thanks to their strong overall record and two wins over Big East teams (Seton Hall and Butler), one would think that they would be in the thick of the bubble conversation. Yet, two losses to teams outside of the KenPom top-150 and a lack of truly “great” wins pushes them a little further down the list of bubble teams. And then there are their quality metrics…yikes. In order to make a serious run at an at-large bid, the Billikens need to find a way to improve in those metrics.
Dayton Flyers (12-7, 4-2 A10)
NET: 107 | KPI: 106 | SOR: 92 | BPI: 67 | KP: 72 | Sag: 89
Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 0-2 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 9-0
Dayton, on the whole, seems like a major longshot to reach the NCAA Tournament but they have a leg up on most mid-majors teams due to their already fairly solid predictive metrics. Of course, those will need to be improved towards the top-60 in the nation but that should come in time if the Flyers start winning with consistency. That, though, might be an issue as the team is just 2-7 against teams ranked in the KenPom top-150.
Davidson Wildcats
NET: 68 | KPI: 53 | SOR: 67 | BPI: 86 | KP: 83 | Sag: 78
Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 6-2 | Q4: 5-0
One of the preseason favorites to win the A10 heading into this year, Davidson has quickly started to prove why in conference play. They stand at 5-1 so far and they could easily be the top team moving forward due to a weak remaining SOS in conference. And while this ease of schedule down the stretch could hurt their metrics, on the whole, Davidson’s number of wins and presumably high NET rating due to beating up on lower teams could result in a backdoor at-large bid. Davidson is one of the A10 teams that is definitely worth a second glance from a resume perspective right now.