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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do teams stand relative to the field?

By Lukas Harkins

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - NOVEMBER 21: Luguentz Dort #0 of the Arizona State Sun Devils is double teamed by Quinn Taylor #10 and Sam Merrill #5 of the Utah State Aggies during the second half of the championship game of the MGM Resorts Main Event basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena on November 21, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Arizona State won 87-82. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - NOVEMBER 21: Luguentz Dort #0 of the Arizona State Sun Devils is double teamed by Quinn Taylor #10 and Sam Merrill #5 of the Utah State Aggies during the second half of the championship game of the MGM Resorts Main Event basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena on November 21, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Arizona State won 87-82. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images) /
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VILLANOVA, PA – JANUARY 08: Simon #5 of the St. John’s Red Storm reacts. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
VILLANOVA, PA – JANUARY 08: Simon #5 of the St. John’s Red Storm reacts. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Big East Conference

Firmly in the field: Villanova, Marquette

Some perspiration: None.

Double the deodorant: St. John’s, Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton

Villanova Wildcats (15-4, 6-0 BE)

NET: 24 | KPI: 14 | SOR: 21 | BPI: 19 | KP: 23 | Sag: 12

Q1: 4-2 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0

Villanova is rising. After disappointing a bit during the first couple months of the season, the Wildcats have seriously turned on the jets in recent weeks as they have soared out to an undefeated 6-0 record in Big East play. Now easily one of the favorites to win the conference, Villanova is playing at an extremely high level and looks like a team that will compete for a protected seed in the NCAA Tournament. All of their metrics are rock-solid in the top-25 and they should only continue to win in the Big East, especially when you consider they have already dispatched Providence, Creighton, and Butler on the road.

Marquette Golden Eagles (17-3, 6-1 BE)

NET: 20 | KPI: 16 | SOR: 13 | BPI: 32 | KP: 33 | Sag: 21 

Q1: 5-3 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 7-0

Quality metrics might disagree a bit with me on this but Marquette looks the part of a darkhorse Final Four contender. They have one of the best offenses in the country, an underrated defense, and plenty of help around superstar guard Markus Howard. All three of their losses have come to potential at-large teams away from home. The Golden Eagles are a dominating force at the Fiserv Forum but have also won their last two true road games. They are seemingly an NCAA Tournament lock right now and a team nobody wants to see on their schedule.

St. John’s Red Storm (15-4, 3-4 BE)

NET: 39 | KPI: 35 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 43 | KP: 48 | Sag: 47

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 8-0

I’m not sure there is a team on the bubble that will be hurt more by their NCSOS than St. John’s. The Red Storm, who clearly have enough talent to be in the No. 5-7 seed range, have struggled to put separation between themselves and the cutline due to their weak non-conference schedule and pedestrian play during the Big East schedule. The Johnnies should finish in the top half of the conference and secure an at-large bid but nothing should be taken for granted. Three out of the next four games for St. John’s will come on the road so it is time to start bolstering up the resume.

Butler Bulldogs (12-8, 3-4 BE)

NET: 48 | KPI: 40 | SOR: 80 | BPI: 41 | KP: 44 | Sag: 39

Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 4-2 | Q4: 3-0

One of the most inconsistent teams in the country, it is hard to really determine where Butler will stand at the end of the year. As of right now, the Dawgs belong right on the cutline as one of the last few teams in or the first few out of the NCAA Tournament. They own a few quality wins (Ole Miss, Florida, Creighton, and St. John’s) and have played a rigorous schedule (top-25 KP SOS)but have not done a ton of damage away from home. Kamar Baldwin is the star player of the team but Jordan Tucker (midseason transfer from Duke) is starting to emerge as his partner-in-crime. When those two are clicking, this team is very hard to beat. In general, Butler’s metrics (except SOR) are favorable and they will have a chance to move up in the coming weeks. (For more on where Butler stands…check out the most recent episode of Hinkle Heat Check…featuring yours truly.)

Seton Hall Pirates (12-7, 3-4 BE)

NET: 56 | KPI: 33 | SOR: 49 | BPI: 57 | KP: 57 | Sag: 55

Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 5-2 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 3-0

Seton Hall has really struggled as of late. They have lost four of their last five games in Big East play and have stumbled into a tie with just about everyone in the league at 3-4. With regards to where they stand on the bubble, Seton Hall (like Butler) is right around the cutline. They have a couple of outstanding wins over Kentucky and Maryland but were also swept by DePaul in conference play. All of their metrics are in solid positioning but they still need to move up a bit in quality standards. Whether or not Seton Hall goes dancing might come down to their final two conference games, which are home matchups against Marquette and Villanova.

Creighton Bluejays (11-8, 2-4 BE)

NET: 61 | KPI: 48 | SOR: 55 | BPI: 49 | KP: 51 | Sag: 50 

Q1: 1-7 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 3-0 

Down…but not out. Despite a tremendous amount of recent struggles, Creighton’s resume is still buoyed by consistently strong metric rankings across the board. On the whole, the Bluejays’ resume is fairly bland with just one KenPom top-50 win (over No. 49 Clemson) but their SOS certainly jumps off the page. Looking ahead, Creighton’s big opportunity to play their way back into the tournament starts right now with a three-game homestand against Butler, St. John’s, and Xavier. It’s too early to call anything a “must-win stretch” but it would be huge if Creighton could go 2-1 or 3-0.

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