Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do fringe tournament teams stand?
Pac-12 Conference
Lead-pipe lock: None.
Firmly in the field: None.
Some perspiration: Washington (9)
Double the deodorant: Arizona (OUT), Arizona State (12), Oregon (OUT).
Washington Huskies (17-4, 8-0 P12)
NET: 29 | KPI: 30 | SOR: 24 | BPI: 44 | KP: 37 | Sag: 41
Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 7-0
Washington continues to impress. On the whole, their resume is not particularly elite but they have done an excellent job of late. This team is taking care of business better than just about anyone else in the nation and that has resulted in a steady climb up the seed lines. They are undefeated in Pac-12 play to this point and have won 10 consecutive games. The Huskies are moving into solid NCAA Tournament positioning but they do play three of their next four games on the road. Could be a difficult stretch for the team so we will see what they are made of.
Arizona Wildcats (14-8, 5-4 P12)
NET: 66 | KPI: 47 | SOR: 51 | BPI: 67 | KP: 64 | Sag: 48
Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 2-4 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 5-0
After Washington, every other Pac-12 team has a lot of work to do in order to make the NCAA Tournament. This includes Arizona, who has dropped three consecutive games, all of which came against teams rated outside of the KenPom top-50. Thankfully, all of these losses came on the road so they were not necessarily unexpected but it really kills their resume that they could not snag at least one of them. Arizona’s best win to date is still a neutral-site victory over Iowa State but that is their only KenPom top-70 win. Their home matchup with Washington next week is almost a must-win.
Arizona State Sun Devils (15-6, 6-3 P12)
NET: 61 | KPI: 40 | SOR: 53 | BPI: 56 | KP: 56 | Sag: 49
Q1: 3-1 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 6-1
Arizona State, in my opinion, has easily the second-best shot at an at-large bid from the Pac-12 (behind Washington). The Sun Devils, despite their bad losses, also hold a fairly solid collection of wins and that gives them a leg up on most teams on the bubble. In addition, they are rated fairly high by most metrics. They have to avoid more bubble-bursters, though, and those are aplenty in the Pac-12.
Oregon Ducks (13-8, 4-4 P12)
NET: 64 | KPI: 70 | SOR: 89 | BPI: 50 | KP: 49 | Sag: 47
Q1: 2-5 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 4-2 | Q4: 6-1
Oregon remains in consideration because of the schedule that they still have remaining. Despite just a 4-4 record in the weak Pac-12, the Ducks have relatively solid quality rankings and still will face off against Washington, Arizona, and Arizona State once more. If they are able to roll through the rest of conference play, which is unlikely, and take two of those games, they will be right in the thick of the tournament race. That all seems quite unlikely, though, so they could be off the bubble watch soon.