Duke vs. UNC: 2018-19 Storylines for the Tobacco Road Rematch
By Trevor Marks
1. How will the Zion-less Blue Devils perform?
As it stands today, Duke is conveying that Williamson is doubtful to play in Saturday’s contest with UNC, but that he could potentially return in time for the ACC Tournament next week. “Doubtful,” as pessimistic as it seems, doesn’t outright mean out. It’s still possible that the team makes a decision in the eleventh hour that Williamson feels well enough to suit up—we shouldn’t rule this out of the realm of possibilities, since Williamson is supposedly in stage four of a four-stage recovery process, and, anyway, Coach K is often one to use vague timelines when it comes to guys missing time (see: Grayson Allen’s “indefinite” one-game suspension, for example).
With that said, let’s assume Duke will be without the likely first-overall NBA Draft pick. If this is to be the fifth consecutive game that he misses, the Blue Devils will have quite the uphill battle.
Among the crowd of Duke underclassmen, fellow freshman phenom RJ Barrett is the only one contributing on a consistent basis, carrying the largest of loads for the struggling Blue Devil offense. Over the past five games, Barrett is averaging 26.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists, seeing jumps in both is points (+2.9) and assists (+1.2) compared to his season average.
Outside of a 27-point outburst against UNC, Cam Reddish is struggling to convert from the field, averaging 11.8 points on 36.2 shooting from the field and 30.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc over his last four games. He’s not getting the cleanest of looks, which is a testament to the usual attention that Williamson draws when driving-and-kicking, and even when he has an open opportunity he misses the shot more often than not.
Tre Jones, not known as a scorer (8.7 ppg) or shooter (25.4 3P%) in any sense, is being treated as a non-threat, with defenders completely sagging off of him whenever he’s playing off-ball and instead sending more defenders at Barrett and Reddish, crowding the paint and creating junk traffic that hampers Duke’s offensive flow.
Jack White is still employed at the brick factory (although he is 5-of-8 from three over his last two games after a 13-game streak without a three-pointer). Joey Baker had his redshirt burned just to play a total of 11 minutes (3 GP) and grab two whole rebounds. Jordan Goldwire is seeing more minutes, but he’s primarily a defensive option that doesn’t give much on the offensive end. Alex O’Connell has been nice (11.5 ppg) over his last four games, for what it’s worth, but you don’t want a role player to be your second-best player during a rough patch whenever you still have three NBA hopefuls available to play.
Simply put, things have been rough for Duke, and it’ll be interesting to see if things will change this time around in Chapel Hill. Without Williamson in the first matchup, UNC’s Luke Maye (32 points) and Cam Johnson (28 points) saw no resistance from the Blue Devil defense, and without Williamson’s high-flying rim protection and versatile on-ball defense, the Heels scored a gaudy 62 points in the paint.
Heroic efforts from Barrett (33 points, 13 rebounds) and Reddish (27 points) weren’t enough to lift Duke to victory —and unless their supporting cast improves its play, the result may not be different come Saturday night.