Big East Basketball: 11 dark-horse candidates for 2019-20 Player of the Year
By Brian Foley
Second-tier Guards
Kamar Baldwin, Butler
Why he’ll win: Baldwin is arguably the best two-way player in the conference, so if he is able to pair A- offensive production with A+ defense, he will be in the POY conversation. Butler is all but locked into the eighth spot in the conference’s preseason rankings, but if Baldwin can drag the Bulldogs into the top half of the Big East and into the NCAA tournament conversation, he may garner some support as the hipster alternative to Howard and Powell.
The senior will need to get off to a hot start to build the early narrative, and Butler’s non-con schedule does feature some high-profile opportunities: Florida (H), Minnesota (H), Purdue (N), Missouri (N), Oklahoma/Stanford (N), Baylor (A), and Ole Miss (A). Baldwin got off to a hot start last season – he averaged 20/6/6 through his first six games – before settling into his expected stat line.
Why he won’t: Here are Baldwin’s numbers the past two seasons: 16/5/3 on 44/33/78 percent shooting as a sophomore and 17/5/3 on 44/31/85 percent shooting as a junior. We know who Baldwin is at this point. He is an all-conference player who can turn it on for stretches but won’t have the statistical consistency or team success required to win Big East Player of the Year.
James Akinjo, Georgetown
Why he’ll win: Akinjo posted 13 ppg and 5 apg last season, becoming the first freshman to lead the conference in assists since Notre Dame’s Chris Thomas in 2001-02. What if he ups those totals to 17 and 8? And leads the Big East in steals (he averaged 1.1 steals per game last year)? And does it all for an exciting, youthful Georgetown team that makes good on its lofty preseason expectations? There’s at least a case to be made, especially if he plays well in the head-to-head matchups against Howard and Powell.
Why he won’t: Akinjo’s efficiency metrics were the stuff of nightmares in 2018-19. He shot 36 percent from the field and finished 509th out of 555 high-major rotation players in effective field goal percentage. He doesn’t have to climb to the top of the charts – high-usage players will always have lower efficiencies by nature; Powell and Howard finished 170th and 240th respectively last year – but he does need to vault himself out of college basketball’s EFG basement.
Ty-Shon Alexander, Creighton
Why he’ll win: Alexander made a massive leap between his freshman and sophomore campaigns, and there’s reason to believe he could continue to grow in year three with the Bluejays. Creighton has always been an offensive-minded program, and with absolutely no size this year’s roster, they will be loading up on five-out perimeter lineups, leaving the lane wide open for Alexander drives (he shot 59 percent at the rim in 2018-19).
I don’t know if Creighton has the defense to actually win the Big East, but I would not be surprised if their offense paces the entire conference. Alexander will be a crucial part of that offensive success and could make a junior-year jump comparable to Powell’s performance last year.
Why he won’t: Unlike Marquette and Seton Hall, which will run everything through Howard and Powell, Greg McDermott figures to use Mitch Ballock, Marcus Zagarowski, Davion Mintz, and Alexander in an equal-opportunity offense, limiting the raw offensive numbers Alexander puts up.
LJ Figueroa/Mustapha Heron, St. John’s
Why they’ll win: Someone has to score for the Red Storm this year, so if one of Figueroa or Heron grabs the reigns early, he could end up dropping 20+ ppg.
Why they won’t: With the incredible amount of the roster and coaching turnover in Queens this offseason, it would be surprising if the Red Storm finished above ninth in the Big East standings in 2019-20. So unless Figueroa or Heron are breaking national records offensively, the Player of the Year award will be going to someone with a modicum of team success.