Cincinnati Basketball: Projecting new-look Bearcats for 2019-20 season
Jarron Cumberland – Elite Scorer
Cumberland has had a knack for putting the ball in the basket his whole career, but he turned into one of the better scorers in the nation last season. The 6’5 senior guard can score from both inside-and-out, shooting efficiently from long-range and consistently getting to the free throw line (89th in fouls drawn rate). He did all this while being relied on heavily to create offense, posting the 35th highest usage rate in the country.
In 2018-19, only seven players met the following statistical criteria: field goal attempts per game >= 14.6, 3-point percentage >=38.8%, 3-point attempts per game >= 5.9 AND free throw attempts per game >= 6.0. Only 44 players have met the criteria since the 1992-93 season, including J.J. Redick, Kevin Durant and Jimmer Fredette.
Jarron Cumberland – Cincinnati
Markus Howard – Marquette
RJ Cole – Howard
Cameron Young – Quinnipiac
Bubba Parham – Virginia Military Institute
Martaveous McKnight – Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Bryce Aiken – Harvard
Areas of Improvement
No one doubts the senior’s scoring ability, but there is some uncertainty as to whether Cumberland can be the lead ball-handler/playmaker Cincinnati needs to take the offense to the next level. It remains to be seen whether he will be heavily relied on in this capacity, or if others will fill this role in the wake of Jenifer and Broome.
To be fair to Cumberland, he definitely improved as a playmaker last season, posting a career-high in assists per game and the 171st best assist rate in the nation. He still functions better as a “scorer,” however, and playing off-the-ball helps his 3-point game (78.8% of his 3’s were assisted last season).
In terms of areas of improvement, the senior could stand to improve his efficiency and shot selection inside the arc. Cumberland only shot 41.5% on 2-point attempts, something partially driven by his reliance on “2-point jump shots.” These shots accounted for 42.4% of his total field goal attempts last season per hoop-math, and he only made 35.5% of them.
Two seasons ago, only 22.8% of his attempts were 2-point jumpers (made 37.7%), and his increased offensive role last season might explain the shift. As Cumberland became the team’s number one option and had defenses focus on him, it likely became harder to get quality shot attempts. This may explain both the increased reliance on the 2-point jumper and his decline in percentage of shots at the rim (24.6% to 17.4%).
Not only are 2-point jump shots only worth two points (duh), they’re not easy to make. Only four college teams last season shot better than 45.0% on 2-point jumpers: Liberty (51.2%, led by Caleb Homesley), South Dakota State (50.4%, Mike Daum), Tennessee (52.3%, Grant Williams) and Gonzaga (52.8%, Brandon Clarke).
To be fair, it’s likely that some of the shots recorded as “2-point jumpers” were closer to “floaters” than “mid-range” shots. Cumberland seems to take a lot of these “floaters,” and although they’re better than mid-range shots due to their closer proximity to the basket, they’re still difficult to make at a high percentage. At the same time, any downsides to these shots might be outweighed by the benefits of Cumberland consistently driving towards the basket. Most of his “floaters” come off of drives, something he should be encouraged to keep doing (produce layups/free throw attempts).
Perhaps Cumberland’s shot selection isn’t a major issue, but he still shouldn’t be overly reliant on floaters and mid-range jumpers. Attempts from beyond the arc or at the rim are just much more efficient (even if they’re not always easy to generate).
Cumberland went through the NBA Draft process but ultimately opted to return to school. He will be the most important player for the Bearcats as the team looks to get the John Brannen era off to a strong start.