Bracketology Losers: Lumps of coal this Christmas for the Pac-12 and SEC

MID-MAJORS

After months of mostly smooth sailing, the ATLANTIC 10 finally hit rough waters just before the holidays. Dayton, with one of the best offenses in the country, was rolling all the way up toward the Top 10 after wins over Saint Mary’s and Virginia Tech, as well as a near-miss against Kansas. But the Flyers weren’t so handsomely rewarded when they fell to Colorado in overtime. Dayton is still in great shape for a bid, but they may fall closer to the 5-range if they stumble in A-10 play.

Elsewhere in the league, VCU fell to fellow former Final Four contestants Wichita State. It’s been up and down so far for the Rams. They are clinging to a win over LSU and not much else. They may be in more trouble than was expected. Richmond was starting to turn heads after a 10-1 start, but the Spiders were squashed by Radford. Duquesne’s magical undefeated run ended abruptly when the Dukes were slain by UAB. The A-10 should still put in at least two teams and it seems like as many as four or five could be very possible, with the teams above all looking good and others like George Mason and Saint Louis throwing their hat in the ring, too.

Out in the MOUNTAIN WEST, the Aztecs of San Diego State have taken the league by storm and Utah State, though they have struggled at times, remains in the top two. But things were a little dicey beneath them in the MWC.

New Mexico came into the week as the league’s third-best team by most metrics, and while they actually pushed their winning streak to seven games with two victories last week, they got some bad news over the weekend. The Lobos will be without starters Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell after the players were both suspended for separate incidents. That off-court drama hasn’t caused any on-court losses yet, but it doesn’t bode well for the league’s chances of getting a third bid.

Those chances were also damaged when Nevada failed to steal a big win away from Saint Mary’s. The Wolf Pack played a great game and could easily slide into the Lobos’ #3 spot in the league if Paul Weir can’t guide UNM through this storm. But the question remains whether Steve Alford did enough in the non-conference season to get into the Big Dance in his first season in Reno. So far, their best win is against Santa Clara. Without multiple wins over SDSU and Utah State, it’s almost surely conference tournament or bust for Nevada.

The same fate likely awaits the entire CONFERENCE USA, as the league is still likely to be resigned to its usual fate as a one-bid league. That distinction was further cemented when Western Kentucky fell to Rhode Island. Still, even though the Hilltoppers gave Arkansas their first loss, defeats from Bowling Green and Wright State probably already sealed WKU’s fate. Another dark horse to come out of the C-USA was UTEP, but those dreams are likely dashed after the Miners’ poor showing at the Diamond Head Classic. Rodney Terry’s team lost to both Houston and Hawaii before barely surviving a thriller against Ball State, 71-70.

Mid-major bids are going to be tough to come by this season, and some of them seem to be getting snapped up already. Time is running out to make mistakes. None of the teams above can afford a post-holiday hangover, either. They’ve got to get right back down to business and get their season back on track.

Most of these schools will end up in the NIT or worse.

But a lucky squad may just rise up and lay claim to one of the last available bids.

One thing is for sure. We’ll be tracking those bids very closely here at Bracketology Losers, as teams continue to fall to the wayside on the road to the NCAA Tournament.