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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images) /
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DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – JANUARY 11: Jones of Duke laughs. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – JANUARY 11: Jones of Duke laughs. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Duke.

Safely in the field: Florida State, Louisville.

Some perspiration: Virginia Tech.

Double the deodorant: NC State, Virginia, Miami-FL, Pittsburgh

Duke Blue Devils (15-2, 5-1 ACC)

NET: 3 | KPI: 1 | SOR: 3 | BPI: 1 | KP: 1 | Sag: 1

Q1: 3-0 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 3-0

Duke’s impressive nine-game winning streak over the past month made many media members forget about its awful home loss to Stephen F. Austin. During this past week, though, the Blue Devils suffered yet another head-scratching loss as they dropped a road game to Clemson. While I am still listing Duke as a “lead-pipe lock” to reach the NCAA Tournament, it is difficult to determine how much we can trust this team as a national title contender considering its propensity for an off-game.

Duke has already dropped two games to sub-par opponents this season. It also has a ton of great wins and should be the favorite to win the ACC. On the whole, I think the Blue Devils are still one of the best teams in the country and this loss to Clemson is just another blip on the radar. If they lose another questionable game or two, then I will start to question their deep run potential. Not yet, though.

Florida State Seminoles (14-2, 4-1 ACC)

NET: 15 | KPI: 7 | SOR: 8 | BPI: 17 | KP: 14 | Sag: 7

Q1: 3-2 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 5-0

Florida State has been rolling to begin this season. Ever since dropping their season-opener on the road to Pittsburgh, the Seminoles have won 14 of their last 15 games and emerged as a fringe Top 10 team in the entire country. They also can boast wins over Florida, Tennessee, Purdue, and Louisville  – all away from home. Head coach Leonard Hamilton is one of the best in the country and his team is dominating on the defensive end once again this season. Florida State should already be a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament and appear to be destined for another deep run. I love this team.

Louisville Cardinals (14-3, 5-1 ACC)

NET: 14 | KPI: 14 | SOR: 22 | BPI: 9 | KP: 9 | Sag: 18

Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 5-0

Louisville has dropped a little bit in recent weeks with losses to Texas Tech, Kentucky, and Florida State to fall to 1-3 in Q1 games. Thankfully, though, the Cardinals did respond well in their most recent game by adding a fringe Q1 win (might not be one by the time you are reading this) by taking down Pittsburgh in a controversial overtime game. This squad has not exactly dominated as a Top 5 team in the country this season as many expected but it has been quite solid. The Cardinals are balanced with strong defense and an offensive star in Jordan Nwora. Head coach Chris Mack’s team should compete right near the top of the ACC.

Virginia Tech Hokies (13-4, 4-2 ACC)

NET: 38 | KPI: 62 | SOR: 23 | BPI: 43 | KP: 57 | Sag: 49

Q1: 1-4  | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 0-0 | Q4: 8-0

Virginia Tech was not expected to be an NCAA Tournament team this season. In fact, many predicted that this would be a rebuilding year due to it being head coach Mike Young’s first season with the program. Yet, the Hokies are right in the thick of the early-season bubble race with quality metrics and one high-quality neutral-site win over Michigan State. Virginia Tech’s resume is pretty loaded with Q4 wins, which is not a good thing, but its metric rankings are solid and there will be opportunities to rack up Q2/3 wins in ACC play. Color me intrigued by Virginia Tech as a future tournament team. Freshman guard Landers Nolley II is an absolute stud that everyone should know about. Getting it done in a variety of ways.

NC State Wolfpack (11-5, 2-3 ACC)

NET: 55 | KPI: 56 | SOR: 59 | BPI: 40 | KP: 50 | Sag: 51

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 7-0

NC State features solid metric rankings across the board (all Top 60) and that warrants plenty of attention for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. With that said, though, the Wolfpack are just 4-5 in Q1/2/3 games this season as the majority of their victories have come in Q4. Because of this, NC State will likely need to put together an above-.500 record in ACC play in order to make the Big Dance. This team is absolutely exceptional on the offensive end and it will be able to simply outscore a lot of opponents in the coming months. The key will still be improving on their No. 130 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency, though.

Virginia Cavaliers (11-4, 3-2 ACC)

NET: 73 | KPI: 54 | SOR: 57 | BPI: 39 | KP: 42 | Sag: 56

Q1: 0-1 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 4-3 | Q4: 4-0

Virginia has been incredibly disappointing this season. The defending national champions have clearly felt the impact of their offseason personnel losses as they are struggling to find any sort of offensive consistency. The Cavaliers’ defense has still been arguably the best in the country but their inability to score at even a mediocre rate has killed them. Virginia has already suffered three Q3 losses and does not have a Q1 win. I really want to believe in head coach Tony Bennett’s team but it just doesn’t have the resume right now. The ACC does not feature a ton of elite opponents this season, though, so Virginia might be able to collect enough conference wins to dance.

Miami-FL Hurricanes (10-5, 2-3 ACC)

NET: 82 | KPI: 33 | SOR: 38 | BPI: 90 | KP: 88 | Sag: 64

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 4-0

Miami-FL most recently secured a home victory over Pittsburgh during this past week to pick up its fourth KenPom Top 100 win of the season. It wasn’t a necessarily dominate home performance but still a solid win to add to a resume that ranks far better than its predictive-metric counterparts. In order for the Hurricanes to improve their chance at a bid, they have to be a bit more convincing in their play on the court. Sub-80 rankings in the BPI and KenPom are unlikely to cut it in a couple of months. The ACC features several teams that would classify as “good not great” wins this season and the Hurricanes need to show out against those squads.

Pittsburgh Panthers (11-6, 2-4 ACC)

NET: 74 | KPI: 66 | SOR: 74 | BPI: 86 | KP: 75 | Sag: 74

Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 5-0

Pittsburgh appears to be a bit of a longshot to reach the NCAA Tournament. While I had some high hopes for the Panthers to make a run a couple of weeks ago, they have now dropped three of their last four games, including a home game to Wake Forest. Considering this recent stretch, head coach Jeff Capel’s team has a tough road ahead to reach the Big Dance. They are already behind the eight-ball without a single Top 60 metric and they have two Q3 losses. There is still hope but a win over the “Big 3” of the conference (Duke, FSU, Louisville) might be mandatory. The team also just missed a big chance as it dropped a controversial overtime game to Louisville during this past week.

Lots of work to do: Clemson, Notre Dame, and Syracuse.

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