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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images) /
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LUBBOCK, TEXAS – JANUARY 07: Butler of the Bears handles. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS – JANUARY 07: Butler of the Bears handles. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia.

Safely in the field: None.

Some perspiration: Oklahoma.

Double the deodorant: Texas Tech, TCU, Texas.

Baylor Bears (13-1, 3-0 B12)

NET: 1 | KPI: 5 | SOR: 4 | BPI: 7 | KP: 3 | Sag: 4

Q1: 5-1 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0

Baylor has been the best team in the country through the first two months of the season. Behind the superb backcourt of MaCio Teague and Jared Butler, the team can fill it up from inside and out while utilizing an elite-level defense to hold most opponents at bay. Ever since dropping their second game of the season, the Bears have rattled off 12 consecutive wins to move into the Top 10 in every committee-used metric. During this current hot streak, the program picked up wins over Villanova, Butler, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Kansas. It’s really hard to argue with their resume as the Bears would be a No. 1 seed right now. Scott Drew is an early favorite for National Coach of the Year.

Kansas Jayhawks (13-3, 3-1 B12)

NET: 5 | KPI: 3 | SOR: 9 | BPI: 2 | KP: 2 | Sag: 2

Q1: 7-3 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 3-0

Kansas dropped a home game to Baylor during this past week and might not be regarded as the favorite in the Big 12 moving forward as a result. With that said, though, it is no secret that the Jayhawks are also one of the best teams in the country and will be a title contender when March rolls around. Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson make up arguably the best inside-out duo in the country and that will carry this team when it matters most. Head coach Bill Self has another national title contender on his hands and that should not come as a surprise. Kansas already boasts seven Q1 wins and that is awesome.

West Virginia Mountaineers (14-2, 3-1 B12)

NET: 10 | KPI: 2 | SOR: 7 | BPI: 16 | KP: 10 | Sag: 5

Q1: 5-2 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 2-0

“Press Virginia” might be in the past but West Virginia is once again one of the best defensive teams in the country this season. With an outstanding frontcourt capable of stuffing opponents in the paint and a blossoming scoring guard, the Mountaineers have been excellent so far this season. They rank in the Top 20 in every major metric and their only two losses came in Q1. West Virginia’s nine combined Q1+2 wins is among the most in the country and the team belongs in the “lock” category as a result. Head coach Bob Huggins is working with a relatively young team centered around a pair of freshmen in Oscar Tshiebwe and Miles McBride, but they are excelling on both ends of the floor. I’m a believer.

Oklahoma Sooners (11-5, 2-2 B12)

NET: 46 | KPI: 23 | SOR: 27 | BPI: 66 | KP: 48 | Sag: 45

Q1: 3-5 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 3-0

Oklahoma has an intriguing resume that pushes me in the direction of keeping it in the field for the long-term. While the Sooners have already suffered five losses this season, all of them have come in Q1 and they are a combined 5-5 in Q1+2 games – a solid record. Additionally, only their BPI ranks outside of the Top 50 nationally and their resume ranks are strong. Oklahoma has played relatively solid ball so far this season but I am a bit worried about losing its last two games. The Big 12 is an absolute gauntlet and it would be easy to get left behind on the bubble with an extended losing streak. Kansas State at home is arguably the only “easy” game in the conference and the Sooners already handled their business in that game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-5, 2-2 B12)

NET: 36 | KPI: 77 | SOR: 80 | BPI: 27 | KP: 28 | Sag: 29

Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 0-0 | Q4: 8-0

Texas Tech should always be given the benefit of the doubt as long as head coach Chris Beard is roaming the sidelines. He is that good. With that said, though, the Red Raiders’ resume at this point in the season is very difficult to analyze. For starters, the team has struggled mightily against top-tier competition with a 1-5 record in Q1. That definitely hurts Texas Tech moving forward because its non-conference schedule featured a ton of cupcake victories (8-0 in Q4). While the Red Raiders’ high predictive metric rankings suggest an emergence in the coming weeks as a top-tier Big 12 team, we are yet to see that truly come to fruition. The Red Raiders will remain a bubble team until they are able to build a record better than just 3-5 in Q1+2+3 games.

TCU Horned Frogs (12-4, 3-1 B12)

NET: 51 | KPI: 64 | SOR: 75 | BPI: 65 | KP: 45 | Sag: 42

Q1: 0-1 | Q2: 3-3 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 6-0

TCU was obliterated on the road by West Virginia in its most recent game and that is a cause for concern. While the Mountaineers are a darn good team, the Horned Frogs had to be hoping for a better performance in their first Q1 opportunity of the season. There will, though, be plenty more chances for high-quality victories over the coming months so it is far from time to panic yet. The Horned Frogs have impressed me early this season as I did not have high hopes for their bubble potential. Head coach Jamie Dixon has done a nice job with this squad and that is evidenced by Top 75 rankings in every single major metric. With four of their next six games on the road, we are about to learn a lot more about the Horned Frogs. They are 1-1 in true road games so far this year with the lone win coming over Kansas State.

Texas Longhorns (11-4, 1-2 B12)

NET: 66 | KPI: 53 | SOR: 54 | BPI: 69 | KP: 65 | Sag: 72

Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 0-3 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 6-0

Texas has won one game in Q1+2 and it came all the way back on Nov. 9th. That isn’t necessarily indicative of a team that has been rolling as of late to land on the bubble. In fact, the Longhorns have won just two of their past five games and that includes taking down High Point (No. 345 on KenPom). Texas is certainly a strong defensive team this season but its inability to score consistently worries me in Big 12 play. Head coach Shaka Smart’s team deserves to sit firmly on the bubble with its middling metric rankings but it needs to secure some high-quality wins moving forward. A home matchup with Kansas this weekend is worth monitoring as a potential building block for the Longhorns’ resume.

Lots of work to do: Oklahoma State (show me you can win again) and Iowa State.

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