Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status
Lead-Pipe Locks: Butler.
Safely in the field: Seton Hall, Villanova, Creighton
Some perspiration: Marquette.
Double the deodorant: Xavier, Georgetown, St. John’s, DePaul
Butler Bulldogs (15-1, 3-0 BE)
NET: 2 | KPI: 6 | SOR: 2 | BPI: 5 | KP: 4 | Sag: 10
Q1: 4-1 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 5-0
Butler has come a bit out of nowhere this season to absolutely dominate just about every opponent in its path. Despite being picked to finish eighth in the Big East alone, the Bulldogs have launched out to a 15-1 (3-0 BE) record that has placed them in the AP Top 5. While that means nothing for bracketology, the team also ranks in the Top 10 in every committee-used metric. Butler also leads the nation with nine Q1+2 wins and its lone loss came on the road to the NET’s No. 1 team on the road. This team is disciplined, elite defensively, and features a few consistent offensive threats. A legit contender for the Big East and national titles.
Seton Hall Pirates (12-4, 4-0 BE)
NET: 19 | KPI: 10 | SOR: 15 | BPI: 19 | KP: 13 | Sag: 8
Q1: 4-4 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 4-0
Seton Hall stumbled a bit out of the gates to begin this season but has found its rhythm in recent weeks. Even while playing without Sandro Mamukelashvili, the Pirates are currently riding a six-game winning streak and have opened Big East play with four consecutive victories. They feature a National Player of the Year frontrunner in Myles Powell and a sensational defense anchored by a pair of seven-footers. Seton Hall has earned respect as one of the best teams in the Big East and its seven Q1+2 wins should not be scoffed at. This is a darn good team that is knocking on the door of becoming a lock in the near future.
Villanova Wildcats (13-3, 4-1 BE)
NET: 20 | KPI: 12 | SOR: 13 | BPI: 20 | KP: 23 | Sag: 16
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0
Villanova hasn’t exactly blown the doors off of its opponents so far this season but the team is still performing at a high level. The Wildcats rank in the Top 25 in every major metric and boast a solid record featuring a pair of high-quality wins. Head coach Jay Wright is working with a young team that seemingly continues to grow with each game, though. The Wildcats are once again a legitimate threat to win the Big East and could be closing in on the “lock” category in the next couple of weeks.
Creighton Bluejays (13-4, 2-2 BE)
NET: 27 | KPI: 21 | SOR: 20 | BPI: 46 | KP: 38 | Sag: 28
Q1: 3-4 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0
Creighton’s resume is pretty rock-solid as a future NCAA Tournament team. Behind a superb trio of guards, the Bluejays are absolutely electric offensively and that has led to this strong start to the season. Creighton is yet to suffer a bad loss and ranks relatively well in most categories. Considering how huge the bubble is this season, the Bluejays are well ahead of the curve at this point. I find it hard to imagine that they would miss the Big Dance. Clear-cut fourth-best team in the conference, in my opinion.
Marquette Golden Eagles (11-5, 1-3 BE)
NET: 42 | KPI: 43 | SOR: 36 | BPI: 35 | KP: 39 | Sag: 38
Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 6-0
Marquette also appears to be a bit ahead of the rest of the bubble in terms of record and rankings but it has started conference play quite slowly with three losses in four games. The Golden Eagles have really struggled defensively over the past few weeks and that is a big issue. Markus Howard is still one of the most potent scorers in the nation and the team’s offense should be fine moving forward as a result. In order to pick up solid wins and rise off the bubble over the next month, Marquette will need to find a way to make its results match its talent on both ends of the floor. Feels like another year of underachievement so far.
Xavier Musketeers (12-5, 1-3 BE)
NET: 56 | KPI: 31 | SOR: 51 | BPI: 54 | KP: 46 | Sag: 48
Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0
Xavier is yet to impress me much this season. The Musketeers entered the season regarded as a fringe Top 25 team in the country but they have performed well below that expectation so far. The team has secured just one Q1 win and has struggled due to a complete lack of perimeter shooting. I still think that Xavier will likely hear its name called on Selection Sunday but it is in danger of falling to 1-4 in conference with its next game coming on the road at Marquette. While conference record has no impact on NCAA Tournament selection or seeding, dropping four of five games is always worrying.
Georgetown Hoyas (11-6, 1-3 BE)
NET: 52 | KPI: 37 | SOR: 50 | BPI: 57 | KP: 47 | Sag: 44
Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 5-0
Georgetown has certainly played through some turmoil this season with several players transferring out. Yet, Omer Yurtseven and Mac McClung are keeping the Hoyas afloat as a bubble-worthy squad. With that said, though, the Hoyas have started conference play a bit slow and it feels as though their lack of depth is already starting to catch up with them. Georgetown’s lone conference win so far came at home over St. John’s. Their upcoming stretch of playing three of their next four at home will be crucial in keeping them on the bubble or dropping them out of this piece altogether.
St. John’s Red Storm (12-5, 1-3 BE)
NET: 65 | KPI: 68 | SOR: 73 | BPI: 87 | KP: 80 | Sag: 69
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 8-0
St. John’s started Big East play with three consecutive losses but was able to defend its home-court for a victory over DePaul. The Red Storm desperately needed that victory to get back on track and we will see how they perform moving forward. Remember, this is the same team that can boast victories over Arizona and West Virginia. While St. John’s ranks sub-60 in every committee-used metric, those two victories are buoying their resume and keeping them afloat on the bubble. A potential mini winning streak in conference play would push them right into the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation.
DePaul Blue Demons (12-5, 0-4 BE)
NET: 64 | KPI: 69 | SOR: 63 | BPI: 89 | KP: 65 | Sag: 81
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 6-1
DePaul posted a very strong non-conference at 12-1 with a few solid wins along the way. Now, though, the team has dropped four straight to begin Big East play and is starting to fall out of bracketology consideration altogether. The Blue Demons need to regain their mojo and do so in a hurry. Taking Villanova to overtime on the road was a start but wins are what matter. I want to believe that this is the year that DePaul will return but metrics and poor losses are hurting its chances.
Lots of work to do: Providence.