Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status

Lead-Pipe Locks: Michigan State, Maryland

Safely in the field: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State

Some perspiration: Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois

Double the deodorant: Purdue, Minnesota

Michigan State Spartans (13-4, 5-1 B10)

NET: 12 | KPI: 17 | SOR: 14 | BPI: 3 | KP: 5 | Sag: 13

Q1: 3-4 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 5-0

Michigan State is always a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament. Under head coach Tom Izzo, the Spartans are seemingly always a threat in March and this placement should come as no surprise. Even after getting obliterated by Purdue during this past weekend, MSU still firmly belongs in the lock category. The Spartans rank in the Top 20 in every metric and can boast six Q1+2 wins without any bad losses. Nothing to worry about here except wondering if MSU can string enough victories together to land on the No. 1 seed line.

Maryland Terrapins (13-4, 3-3 B10)

NET: 17 | KPI: 9 | SOR: 12 | BPI: 13 | KP: 11 | Sag: 14

Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 4-0

Maryland is 0-4 on the road and that makes me worry about the team’s long-term potential in the NCAA Tournament. With that said, though, the Terps are still a lock for the Big Dance considering their high number of Q2 wins and ability to dominate in front of their home crowd. Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith are a dangerous duo (in the Xfinity Center) and the team should be a lock to dance even if it does not finish near the top of the Big Ten standings. Maryland has a major cushion between themselves and the bubble and there aren’t enough chances for bad losses in Big Ten play to change that.

Ohio State Buckeyes (12-5, 2-4 B10)

NET: 16 | KPI: 28 | SOR: 33 | BPI: 8 | KP: 7 | Sag: 30

Q1: 2-5 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 5-0

It might not yet be time to panic for Ohio State but it is getting relatively close to that point. The Buckeyes still rank quite well in most metrics and would easily make the Big Dance right now based on resume alone but they are stumbling in real-time. Head coach Chris Holtmann’s team has four of its last five games with the only win coming at home over Nebraska. Considering Ohio State went on a massive losing streak about this time last year as well before being selected for the Big Dance as a double-digit seed, doubt might be creeping in. Ohio State is a far better team than it has shown recently – it just needs to rediscover itself. Another few losses, though, and it becomes danger time…

Michigan Wolverines (11-5, 2-3 B10)

NET: 29 | KPI: 38 | SOR: 21 | BPI: 24 | KP: 21 | Sag: 23

Q1: 2-5 | Q2:  3-0 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 5-0

Michigan is another Big Ten team that has struggled a bit as of late. After starting the season at 7-0 with an impressive run for the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament title, the Wolverines are just 4-5 in recent weeks with two of those victories coming over sub-250 opponents. Playing without Isaiah Livers as of late has definitely hurt but the team is simply struggling a bit on both ends of the floor. With that said, though, head coach Juwan Howard’s team is yet to suffer a bad loss and mostly ranks among the Top 40 in committee-used metrics. Safely in the Dance right now.

Penn State Nittany Lions (12-4, 2-3 B10)

NET: 35 | KPI: 26 | SOR: 31 | BPI: 29 | KP: 35 | Sag: 34

Q1: 3-3 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 5-0

Many expected that Penn State would be able to compete on the bubble this season with Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins leading the way. Few would have predicted, though, that the Nittany Lions would be safely in the field at this point with a 6-4 record in Q1+2 games. Head coach Pat Chambers has had his team playing at a relatively high level throughout the year and that has resulted in Top 40 rankings across the board. While back-to-back losses during this past week might seem a bit concerning, I’m not overly worried. Winning at Rutgers is tough and the Nittany Lions weren’t going to go undefeated at home (lost to Wisconsin as well). They do need to get back on track quickly, though, to avoid a major slide.

Iowa Hawkeyes (12-5, 3-3 B10)

NET: 31 | KPI: 36 | SOR: 32 | BPI: 22 | KP: 19 | Sag: 19

Q1: 3-3 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 4-0

Iowa is one of the most potent offensive units in the country in the nation. With Luka Garza leading the way, the team boasts a National Player of the Year and contender and spaces the floor remarkably well around him. The Hawkeyes are a fairly young squad once again this season but are getting tremendous underclassmen contributions to belong as an NCAA Tournament team if Selection Sunday occurred right now. It is also important to mention that Iowa is one of the few Big Ten teams that played well during this past week as it picked up two solid wins over Northwestern and Maryland. The Hawkeyes’ road loss to Nebraska still stings but the rest of their resume is quite solid.

Indiana Hoosiers (13-3, 3-2 B10)

NET: 40 | KPI: 27 | SOR: 19 | BPI: 41 | KP: 34 | Sag: 35

Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 5-0

Indiana has played one of the easiest schedules of any Big Ten team so far this season but it is performing at a high level. The Hoosiers have avoided a land-mine loss to this point in the year and have steadily risen in efficiency metrics by consistently handling their business against lower-level competition. Freshman big man Trayce Jackson-Davis has been absolutely superb as a two-way leader for the team and it feels as though IU will be heading to the Big Dance. With that said, though, two road games approach in the coming week so we will find out just where the Hoosiers belong in the bubble hierarchy. They are yet to win a true road game this season.

Wisconsin Badgers (11-6, 4-2 B10)

NET: 25 | KPI: 20 | SOR: 44 | BPI: 18 | KP: 22 | Sag: 21

Q1: 4-3 | Q2: 2-3 | Q3: 0-0 | Q4: 5-0

Wisconsin started this season very slowly at 5-5 with a couple of head-scratching losses. The Badgers have now won six of their last seven games to move firmly into the current field, though. Even though Micah Potter was not all that impactful at Ohio State, it appears as though he is a budding star in Madison while helping carry the team to the next level. Wisconsin’s backcourt has disappointed for long stretches this season but the Reuvers/Potter duo up front is dangerous. The Badgers are 4-2 in the toughest conference in the country with two road wins. Easy to see the appeal in Wisconsin even with six losses.

Illinois Fighting Illini (12-5, 4-2 B10)

NET: 32 | KPI: 46 | SOR: 34 | BPI: 28 | KP: 29 | Sag: 31

Q1: 3-3 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 6-0

Illinois started this season quite slow with a 9-5 record and only one quality win in the mix. Since then, though, the Fighting Illini have rattled off three consecutive wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and Rutgers to assert itself as an NCAA Tournament caliber team. While its resume might not be elite, there is no doubt that Illinois would belong in the Big Dance right now. The Illini have high quality wins, only one bad resume loss, and above-average metrics. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn have both been excellent as underclassmen leaders of the squad.

Purdue Boilermakers (10-7, 3-3 B10)

NET: 34 | KPI: 60 | SOR: 63 | BPI: 15 | KP: 16 | Sag: 20

Q1: 2-5 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 4-0

I’ll just leave this here to summarize my thoughts on Purdue:

Could this just be a coincidence? Yes. Could Purdue be starting to figure it out after a hard-fought road loss (they were really bad away-from-home earlier in the year) to Michigan and a blowout home win over Michigan State? Possibly. Carsen Edwards is not walking through that door but I trust Coach Painter.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-7, 3-3 B10)

NET: 41 | KPI: 57 | SOR: 71 | BPI: 37 | KP: 36 | Sag: 32

Q1: 2-6 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 4-0

Minnesota has really struggled to secure victories against top-tier competition this season with just a 3-7 record in Q1+2 games. With that said, though, the Gophers’ tough strength of schedule is keeping them on the bubble for the time being. Additionally, the team ranks well in predictive metrics and that could be a sign of some victories coming in the future. Defending “The Barn” will be crucial throughout the rest of conference play as the Big Ten features plenty of Q1/2 games at home. Daniel Oturu is a stud and the nation will take more notice once Minnesota starts to win with more consistency. Arguably the Gophers’ toughest stretch of schedule is approaching over the next couple of weeks, though. That makes their next game (vs. Penn State) very important.

Lots of work to do: None.