Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status
Lead-Pipe Locks: Oregon.
Safely in the field: Colorado, Arizona, Stanford.
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Washington, USC, Oregon State, Utah, ASU
Oregon Ducks (14-3, 3-1 P12)
NET: 13 | KPI: 8 | SOR: 11 | BPI: 11 | KP: 17 | Sag: 12
Q1: 5-2 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 4-0
Oregon has lived to the hype as a Top 25 team in the country so far this season. The Ducks can already boast five Q1 wins and they are deserving of being regarded as a lock already. Payton Pritchard emerging as a legitimate early National Player of the Year contender is a major reason for this but his supporting cast has been pretty solid as well. The Ducks are a potent offensive squad and will only continue to improve as N’Faly Dante grows more accustomed to the collegiate level. Oregon should be the favorite to win the Pac-12.
Colorado Buffaloes (13-3, 2-1 P12)
NET: 21 | KPI: 16 | SOR: 28 | BPI: 30 | KP: 24 | Sag: 25
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 5-0
Colorado has recently won six of its last seven games to put itself firmly in the field at this moment. The Buffaloes are 6-3 against quality opposition and are ranked in the Top 30 in every single major metric. The team has simply been very good this season while living up to expectations as a fringe Top 25 team in the country. Head coach Tad Boyle’s squad has been rock-solid defensively and looks the part of being a potential second-weekend squad. Their road trip to the two Arizona schools starts next and coming away with one W would be nice.
Arizona Wildcats (11-5, 1-2 P12)
NET: 18 | KPI: 34 | SOR: 56 | BPI: 10 | KP: 18 | Sag: 39
Q1: 0-4 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 4-0
Arizona needs to find a way to right the ship. The Wildcats are young but have plenty of talent and should be a clear-cut NCAA Tournament team. They are have been trending in the wrong direction a bit as of late, though. High metrics are keeping them afloat but they need quality wins.
Arizona is 2-5 since early December with its only wins coming at home over Omaha and Arizona State. Lone win over a KenPom Top 80 team came on Nov. 10th.
— Lukas Harkins (@hardwiredsports) January 15, 2020
Stanford Cardinal (14-2, 3-0 P12)
NET: 11 | KPI: 22 | SOR: 30 | BPI: 62 | KP: 41 | Sag: 43
Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 6-0
Stanford hasn’t played the toughest competition in the country so far this season but it has been handling its business. The Cardinal boast an excellent record and their only two losses to date came to current “locks” in Kansas and Butler. It’s hard to be too upset with their defeats and the team also has three semi-quality wins over Oklahoma, Washington, and San Francisco. Stanford’s resume might not be incredible due to its lack of signature victories but the team deserves to be rewarded for consistently dominating its competition. It has soared past its preseason metric expectations already and is a dark-horse Pac-12 contender, in my opinion. Tyrell Terry – remember the name.
Washington Huskies (11-6, 1-3 P12)
NET: 50 | KPI: 65 | SOR: 95 | BPI: 82 | KP: 44 | Sag: 53
Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 6-0
Washington is in a tough place right now. The Huskies’ metric rankings aren’t great, their resume is sub-par, and their point guard (Quade Green) is academically ineligible. That pretty sums up the current situation for the team. Oh, and they have also lost four of their last five games. Without a massive turnaround, Washington will be off of the Bubble Watch very soon.
USC Trojans (13-3, 2-1 P12)
NET: 68 | KPI: 29 | SOR: 25 | BPI: 67 | KP: 73 | Sag: 66
Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 5-0
USC’s resume is one of the toughest in the country to figure out. The Trojans have a strong overall record, are 5-2 in Q1+2 games, and rank in the Top 30 in resume metrics. That seems like a clear-cut NCAA Tournament team to me. Yet, the Trojans are sub-60 in all efficiency-based rankings and that is absolutely pulling them down. Improving those ratings with some convincing wins in the coming weeks will hopefully help people realize this is an underrated group. Onyeka Okongwu is a flat-out stud.
Oregon State Beavers (12-4, 2-2 P12)
NET: 45 | KPI: 63 | SOR: 78 | BPI: 64 | KP: 58 | Sag: 57
Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 8-0
Oregon State’s record to this point is quite inflated by eight Q4 wins but the team also has a couple of signature Ws over Colorado and Arizona worth boasting. The Beavers might not be an NCAA Tournament team right now but they belong in the conversation and that is a step in the right direction. Maybe this will finally be the year where star forward Tres Tinkle receives the credit he deserves as one of the best players in all of college hoops. The road trip to the Washington schools comes up next and a sweep of the Huskies/Cougars would open some eyes nationally.
Arizona State Sun Devils (10-6, 1-2 P12)
NET: 59 | KPI: 48 | SOR: 62 | BPI: 85 | KP: 85 | Sag: 73
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 5-0
Arizona State has only won two of its last six games and that includes a victory over Texas Southern. The Sun Devils are not playing exceptional basketball right now but they still belong on the bubble. Head coach Bobby Hurley’s team is yet to suffer a bad loss and features good enough metrics to remain on the fringe of dancing. All it would take is a mini-winning streak to move onto the right side of the early cutline. ASU’s upcoming three-game homestand could help with that. Fans need to be thinking about picking up at least two wins if not all three during this stretch.
Lots of work to do: Utah.