Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status
Lead-Pipe Locks: Auburn.
Safely in the field: Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU.
Some perspiration: Florida.
Double the deodorant: Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
Auburn Tigers (15-0, 3-0 SEC)
NET: 6 | KPI: 4 | SOR: 5 | BPI: 14 | KP: 15 | Sag: 6
Q1: 1-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 4-0
Auburn hasn’t played the toughest schedule in the country this season but is undefeated through 15 games. That is impressive and warrants plenty of attention as a Top 25 squad. Head coach Bruce Pearl has done a nice job with this roster after losing a ton of talent in the offseason. The Tigers have been excellent on both ends of the floor so far this season and they have been able to avoid a slip-up as a result. This team should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament even without any signature wins. Adding top-tier victories, though, could propel the Tigers into the No. 1 seed conversation.
Kentucky Wildcats (12-3, 3-0 SEC)
NET: 26 | KPI: 25 | SOR: 37 | BPI: 23 | KP: 20 | Sag: 11
Q1: 3-1 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 6-1
Kentucky’s home loss to Evansville isn’t going to simply disappear this season. That is going to remain a black eye on the Wildcats’ resume throughout the year as a Q4 defeat. Yet, the Wildcats still belong in the extremely safe category of the NCAA Tournament. They are very talented, well-coached, and have proven that they can win big games with a 3-1 record in Q1. I am hesitant to believe in UK as a national title threat due to its lack of 3-point shooting but it will dance with ease.
Arkansas Razorbacks (13-2, 2-1 SEC)
NET: 24 | KPI: 13 | SOR: 17 | BPI: 33 | KP: 27 | Sag: 27
Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 5-0
Arkansas has not played a rigorous schedule to this point but has mostly held serve as a very good team. The Razorbacks have only dropped two games all year and have risen into the Top 35 of every single metric. The team has clearly bought into what head coach Eric Musselman is selling and could be a contender in the SEC. Arkansas defends at a high level and features two of the most dangerous perimeter scorers in the country with Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones. They only need a split-second to get their shots off. Arkansas is safely in right now.
LSU Tigers (12-4, 4-0 SEC)
NET: 28 | KPI: 19 | SOR: 43 | BPI: 25 | KP: 31 | Sag: 22
Q1: 3-1 | Q2: 1-3 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 3-0
LSU has been quietly sneaking up the rankings in recent weeks. Behind an elite offense, the Tigers are 4-0 in SEC play so far this season and this hot start has propelled their metric rankings up. LSU should now be regarded as a clear-cut at-large team for every bracketologist. The Tigers are in the midst of a five-game winning streak and are yet to suffer a truly bad loss. They absolutely dominate the paint inside and will have an advantage over most teams in that area.
Florida Gators (11-5, 3-1 SEC)
NET: 53 | KPI: 39 | SOR: 45 | BPI: 21 | KP: 37 | Sag: 40
Q1: 0-3 | Q2: 5-2 | Q3: 0-0 | Q4: 5-0
Florida entered this year facing incredibly high expectations as a preseason Top 10 team in the nation. Through the first two months of the season, the Gators have shown flashes of that potential but have been incredibly inconsistent. Still, head coach Mike White’s team should be able to stay on the right side of the bubble. They are yet to secure a Q1 win but are 5-2 in Q2 with solid metric rankings across the board. If the young squad is able to put it together over the last two months, they will be a very very dangerous No. 7-10 seed.
Tennessee Volunteers (10-5, 2-1 SEC)
NET: 71 | KPI: 55 | SOR: 68 | BPI: 47 | KP: 52 | Sag: 50
Q1: 3-5 | Q2: 0-0 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 6-0
Tennessee has three Q1 wins and relatively solid metrics. That pretty much summarizes why the Volunteers are under consideration for an at-large bid right now. With that said, though, they are trending down since the loss of Lamonte Turner. He was such a huge piece of the team that will not be easily replaced even with the midseason addition of Santiago Vescovi. Tennessee still has a shot at an at-large bid but it has a hard journey ahead to make that happen. It starts with three of the team’s next four games coming on the road.
Georgia Bulldogs (10-5, 0-2 SEC)
NET: 54 | KPI: 40 | SOR: 65 | BPI: 108 | KP: 78 | Sag: 61
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 0-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 5-0
Georgia efficiency metrics are poor and it only has one Q1 win. Even though its NET and KPI warrant consideration, I am not yet on the bandwagon for this squad from a bracketology perspective. Anthony Edwards is a great leading star, though, so it is worth keeping tabs on this team in case of a big run. There will be opportunities for quality wins in SEC play and he could carry them to a few of them. Consistently winning in Athens will be Step 1.
Alabama Crimson Tide (8-7, 1-2 SEC)
NET: 61 | KPI: 75 | SOR: 91 | BPI: 74 | KP: 53 | Sag: 47
Q1: 0-4 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 4-2 | Q4: 3-0
A crucial stretch awaits for Alabama. The Crimson Tide might only sit at 8-7 on the season but their metric rankings are relatively solid and they have been playing much better basketball as of late. It appears as though the roster has bought into what head coach Nate Oats and it is starting to excel offensively. Alabama plays at a frenetic pace and is extremely fun to watch. At a certain point, though, the Tide will need to win games in order to stay on the bubble. Alabama will play three of its next four games at home and it absolutely has to perform at a high level in those contests.
Lots of work to do: Missouri, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss.