Bracketology Bubble Watch: Arizona State, Stanford trending oppositely
Lead-Pipe Locks: Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State
Safely in the field: Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Some perspiration: Rutgers, Purdue
Double the deodorant: Indiana, Minnesota
Illinois Fighting Illini (16-8, 8-5 B10)
NET: 34 | KPI: 42 | SOR: 22 | BPI: 31 | KP: 27 | Sag: 25
Q1: 4-5 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 6-0
I said last week that Illinois was just on the fringe of joining the “lock” category and then the team dropped back-to-back games to move their losing streak to three in a row. It is also important to mention that two of those losses came at home. I still believe that the Fighting Illini are very firmly in the field and would have a hard time falling out, but they can’t afford to let this slide continue for too much longer. Road games against Rutgers and Penn State come next, so the streak could hit as many as five very feasibly. It won’t be time to freak out unless they lose six straight. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 7 seed
Ohio State Buckeyes (15-8, 5-7 B10)
NET: 22 | KPI: 35 | SOR: 30 | BPI: 13 | KP: 12 | Sag: 28
Q1: 4-6 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 6-0
Ohio State dropped a road game to Wisconsin in its only contest of the week and that doesn’t hurt too much. The Buckeyes are in a similar position as the Illini. They are safely in the field and just can’t afford to lose too many games down the stretch. The Big Ten is a gauntlet and a long skid could happen to just about anyone. Ohio State, though, should dance with ease. It will play five of its final eight at home. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 7 seed
Wisconsin Badgers (14-10, 7-6 B10)
NET: 33 | KPI: 26 | SOR: 32 | BPI: 29 | KP: 32 | Sag: 30
Q1: 7-7 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 0-1 | Q4: 6-0
Wisconsin loses some head-scratching games but also turns around with some dominant performances as well. Over the past week, the Badgers were absolutely dismantled by Minnesota on the road only to return home and eviscerate Ohio State. This team is very difficult to figure out considering some of its “bad losses” but also its seven Q1 wins. Wisconsin’s resume is pretty rock-solid and deserving of being in the NCAA Tournament, but it is important to keep tabs on their loss column. The Badgers have already suffered double-digit defeats and they need to stay solidly over-.500. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 8 seed.
Michigan Wolverines (14-9, 5-7 B10)
NET: 32 | KPI: 43 | SOR: 29 | BPI: 28 | KP: 24 | Sag: 19
Q1: 6-8 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 5-0
Michigan has seemingly rediscovered itself a bit in recent weeks by winning three of its last four games. This has moved the Wolverines into pretty safe territory considering their high number of quality wins, lack of bad losses, and solid metric rankings. Michigan will be tasked with playing the majority of its closing stretch on the road, though, and that could prove to be very difficult. Winning their contests against Northwestern (A on Feb. 12) and Nebraska (H on Mar. 5) would help as those could simply increase their winning percentage. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 8 seed.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (17-7, 8-5 B10)
NET: 31 | KPI: 40 | SOR: 33 | BPI: 36 | KP: 33 | Sag: 37
Q1: 3-5 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 7-0
Rutgers only competed in one game this week and narrowly came away with an overtime win over Northwestern at home. This was far from the Scarlet Knights’ best performance of the season and they dropped just a tad on efficiency metrics as a result. This team is still in very good shape to reach the NCAA Tournament but a grueling closing schedule awaits. Each of Rutgers’ final seven opponents is currently ranked in the KenPom Top 35. While these display great opportunities for the team to improve its seed, it could also rack up losses in a hurry. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 9 seed.
Purdue Boilermakers (14-11, 7-7 B10)
NET: 26 | KPI: 46 | SOR: 39 | BPI: 12 | KP: 14 | Sag: 10
Q1: 4-8 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 4-0
Purdue was once in danger of falling below-.500 for the season but has now rattled off three wins in four tries to move safely into the projected field. The Boilermakers’ ridiculously high rankings on efficiency metrics are buoying their resume tremendously well and they could be slotted even higher than my current No. 8 seed as a result. Purdue will play each of its next two games on the road against Ohio State and Wisconsin, though. Winning at least one will be critical as losing both would drop them dangerously close to .500 again. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 9 seed.
Indiana Hoosiers (15-8, 5-7 B10)
NET: 62 | KPI: 56 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 45 | KP: 44 | Sag: 52
Q1: 3-7 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 6-0
Indiana has dropped four consecutive games and the future does not look all that bright as a result. With that said, though, the Hoosiers are still hanging onto a spot in my projected field at this moment and some of their non-conference wins are aging nicely. Most notably, beating Florida State at home is a true signature win and Notre Dame has picked up its play as of late as well. Still, it will be impossible for Indiana to make the Big Dance if it does not improve its current level of play. The Hoosiers will play four of their next six games on the road and they could easily slip out of the tournament if they aren’t careful. This is a delicate stretch in which IU could rise into safe standing on the bubble or fall off completely. Trending down right now, though. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 12 seed.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-11, 6-7 B10)
NET: 40 | KPI: 55 | SOR: 46 | BPI: 34 | KP: 31 | Sag: 36
Q1: 3-10 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 4-0
Minnesota remains only one game over-.500 and can boast just a 3-10 record in Q1 games. To put it simply, the Golden Gophers have been given an abundance of opportunities to prove that it is a good team and it has barely won those contests. While Minnesota’s metrics are solid and it hasn’t suffered a bad loss, it is impossible to make the Big Dance without actually winning games. The key for the Gophers down the stretch is simple: win some games and build a better-than-.500 record. That’s easier said than done but they have a relatively favorable closing schedule. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.
Lots of work to do: None.