Bracketology 2020 Bubble Watch: Breaking down at-large contenders
Lead-Pipe Locks: Maryland, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan
Safely in the field: Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota
Wisconsin Badgers (16-10, 9-6 B10)
NET: 30 | KPI: 30 | SOR: 25 | BPI: 26 | KP: 28 | Sag: 29
Q1: 7-8 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 6-0
Wisconsin just can’t be stupid down the stretch. The Badgers have a superb number of high-quality wins and great metrics. Just winning two more games (including the conf. tournament) should do the trick. I’m only leaving Wisconsin on this bubble watch because the Big Ten is challenging enough where losing a bunch in a row is a possibility. Wisconsin has won three straight, though. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 8 seed.
Illinois Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-6 B10)
NET: 34 | KPI: 52 | SOR: 24 | BPI: 33 | KP: 31 | Sag: 38
Q1: 6-7 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 6-0
Illinois was in the midst of a major slide and in danger of falling to the double-digit seed line earlier this week when it dropped its fourth straight game. The Fighting Illini managed to recover, though, with a massive and well-timed road win over Penn State. This pushed the team into safe standing heading into matchups with conference bottomfeeders Nebraska and Northwestern. With Ayo Dosunmu back and already dominating, Illinois is fine. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 9 seed.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (18-8, 9-6 B10)
NET: 28 | KPI: 44 | SOR: 33 | BPI: 34 | KP: 29 | Sag: 33
Q1: 3-6 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 6-0
Rutgers is the Big Ten team currently in the majority of projected fields that I am most worried about. The Scarlet Knights still boast a strong record and quality metrics but have been absolutely putrid on the road. Their closing schedule is also quite daunting as they will have to face Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue all away-from-home. Their lone remaining games at the RAC will come against Michigan and Purdue – not easy to beat those squads even at home. Rutgers is still in a position to land a single-digit seed but can’t afford major stumbles down the stretch. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 8 seed.
Indiana Hoosiers (16-9, 6-8 B10)
NET: 63 | KPI: 48 | SOR: 31 | BPI: 48 | KP: 47 | Sag: 45
Q1: 4-7 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 6-0
Indiana has lost five of its last six games and finds itself clinging to the last available at-large spot in my projected field at the moment. The Hoosiers still have six games remaining on their schedule and they could easily be underdogs in each of the next four. Indiana definitely has some work to do in order to solidify a spot in the field but it is trending in the wrong direction. All but one remaining game would classify as Q1 at the moment, though, so opportunities are everywhere. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 12 seed.
Purdue Boilermakers (14-13, 7-9 B10)
NET: 33 | KPI: 57 | SOR: 50 | BPI: 13 | KP: 25 | Sag: 23
Q1: 4-10 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 4-0
Purdue needs to win games. It’s that simple. The Boilermakers have absolutely ridiculous efficiency metrics for a bubble team yet are somehow only one game above-.500. That will not cut it on Selection Sunday. Purdue has four regular-season games remaining and thankfully three of them will come at home. The Boilermakers need to likely finish at least 3-1 and then add a win or two in the conference tournament to dance. They’ve backed themselves into a corner and it’s time to fight out of it. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-12, 6-8 B10)
NET: 44 | KPI: 55 | SOR: 54 | BPI: 36 | KP: 32 | Sag: 43
Q1: 5-10 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 4-0
Minnesota is in a similar situation as Purdue. The Golden Gophers are exactly .500 for the season and in danger of falling completely out of the bubble picture. They do have six regular-season games left on the schedule, though, so there are plenty of opportunities remaining to make a run. Defending their home court against Indiana in their next game is essentially mandatory. I find it hard to believe that Minnesota could recover if it drops that game to fall to 12-13. Gophers need a winning streak in the worst way. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.