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Bracketology 2020 Bubble Watch: Breaking down at-large contenders

By Lukas Harkins

BLOOMINGTON, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 08: Trevion Williams #50 of the Purdue Boilermakers takes a shot over Trayce Jackson-Davis #4 of the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half at Assembly Hall on February 08, 2020 in Bloomington, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
BLOOMINGTON, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 08: Trevion Williams #50 of the Purdue Boilermakers takes a shot over Trayce Jackson-Davis #4 of the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half at Assembly Hall on February 08, 2020 in Bloomington, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /
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AUBURN, ALABAMA – FEBRUARY 12: Petty Jr. of the Crimson Tide dunks. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
AUBURN, ALABAMA – FEBRUARY 12: Petty Jr. of the Crimson Tide dunks. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Auburn, Kentucky

Safely in the field: LSU

Some perspiration: Florida

Double the deodorant: Alabama, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee

LSU Tigers (18-8, 9-4 SEC)

NET: 31 | KPI: 20 | SOR: 42 | BPI: 32 | KP: 36 | Sag: 34

Q1: 2-6 | Q2: 8-1 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 4-0

LSU has dropped four of its last five games after starting the season extremely well. It appears as though opponents are now starting to eviscerate the Tigers’ porous defense and that is not a good sign moving forward. LSU is still in great shape with regard to reaching the NCAA Tournament and might only need 1-2 more wins to return to “lock status”. Home games against Texas A&M and Georgia should be easy victories but their other three games all come on the road. Current Bracketology Status: No. 7 seed.

Florida Gators (17-9, 9-4 SEC)

NET: 35 | KPI: 36 | SOR: 45 | BPI: 27 | KP: 34 | Sag: 39

Q1: 3-6 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 4-0

Florida has won five of its last six games and has moved into a slightly safer position in the field as a result. While their competition level of late hasn’t been the toughest in SEC play, winning games is the most important factor for NCAA Tournament inclusion and that’s exactly what the Gators have been doing. They are still a relatively poo 7-9 in Q1+2 games but have not suffered a bad loss and rank in the Top 50 of every single metric. A huge stretch approaches as the Gators will face Kentucky (away), LSU (home), and Tennessee (away) in its next three games. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 11 seed. 

Alabama Crimson Tide (14-11, 6-6 SEC)

NET: 38 | KPI: 45 | SOR: 65 | BPI: 57 | KP: 46 | Sag: 42

Q1: 1-6 | Q2: 5-4 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 3-0

Alabama took down LSU at home in its most recent game to remain among the first teams out of most projected fields at this moment. The Crimson Tide do not have a great record or a high number of quality wins and those are both killers with regard to selection potential. There is a lot that I dislike about this resume even though Alabama is one of my favorite teams to watch in the country. The Tide need to finish very strong to dance but a favorable schedule opens up that possibility. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-9, 7-5 SEC)

NET: 53 | KPI: 46 | SOR: 58 | BPI: 41 | KP: 48 | Sag: 44

Q1: 2-6 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 6-2 | Q4: 5-0

Mississippi State similarly is right on the outside-looking-in and has been playing relatively well as of late. The issue is that the Bulldogs are 5-7 in Q1+2 with a pair of “bad losses” on their resume. It will be hard to overcome those marks even with relatively solid metrics for a bubble team. Mississippi State will be tasked with facing South Carolina (home), Texas A&M (away), Alabama (home), and Missouri (away) in its next four games. All are very winnable and could push the team back into the field if they sweep.

Arkansas Razorbacks (16-10, 4-9 SEC)

NET: 51 | KPI: 38 | SOR: 62 | BPI: 51 | KP: 50 | Sag: 66

Q1: 2-6 | Q2: 2-4 | Q3: 8-0 | Q4: 4-0

Arkansas has lost five consecutive games and has fallen out of the projected field as a result. While the Razorbacks are yet to suffer a “bad loss” this season, they are also just 4-10 in Q1+2 games and that simply won’t cut it. Their metrics are still solid but it’s impossible to overlook that putrid record against quality opposition. Arkansas still has home meetings with Tennessee and LSU left to hopefully pick up a pair of nice victories. The Razorbacks’ closing schedule is extremely favorable so don’t count this team out quite yet. It might be able to right the ship. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT. 

South Carolina Gamecocks (16-9, 8-4 SEC)

NET: 62 | KPI: 53 | SOR: 61 | BPI: 77 | KP: 73 | Sag: 56

Q1: 3-5 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 5-1

South Carolina has slowly but surely worked its way into at-large contention over the past few weeks. The Gamecocks have won six of their last seven games (and eight of 10) while pushing towards the field. This team definitely still has some work to do, especially with regard to raising efficiency metrics, but a huge week approaches with games against Mississippi State (away) and LSU (home). Not many people are considering the Gamecocks to be a serious at-large team at this point but that shouldn’t be the case. Don’t sleep on this rising resume right now. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT. 

Tennessee Volunteers (15-11, 7-6 SEC)

NET: 65 | KPI: 61 | SOR: 74 | BPI: 56 | KP: 63 | Sag: 54

Q1: 1-7 | Q2: 5-3 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 4-0

Tennessee needs to finish extremely strong to move into the projected field but this team is facing every opportunity imaginable down the stretch. The Volunteers have five games left and they will face Auburn (away), Arkansas (away), Florida (home), Kentucky (away), and Auburn (home). There might not be a single closing schedule in the country filled with more opportunities than this one. It is a longshot, but Tennessee could still dance. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT. 

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