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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Providence rising, Rutgers in trouble

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: A reflection of the stadium can be seen in the bubble as it bursts ahead the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: A reflection of the stadium can be seen in the bubble as it bursts ahead the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 22: Big Blue reacts (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 22: Big Blue reacts (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Gonzaga, San Diego State, BYU

Safely in the Field: Saint Mary’s

At-Large Contenders: Utah State, East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa

Saint Mary’s Gaels (23-6, NET: 32)

Saint Mary’s is very close to being a lock. The Gaels have great metrics and a solid enough resume to belong as a single-digit seed at the moment. They do close their regular-season schedule with a pair of tough road games against Santa Clara and Gonzaga, though. Losing both *could* make things interesting heading into the WCC Tournament, but I’m not too concerned. I don’t think enough bubble teams could pass Saint Mary’s. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 9 seed.

Utah State Aggies (23-7, NET: 35)

Utah State is currently in the midst of a six-game winning streak and it has also won nine of its last 10 games. The Aggies’ only loss during this stretch came on the road against projected No. 1 seed San Diego State. This team has clearly found its rhythm with only one regular-season game left to be played (at New Mexico) before the MWC Tournament. Utah State is hovering right at the cutline right now and the best thing it can do is defeat the Lobos then at least made the MWC Tourney final. The MWC Tournament will end prior to the start of high-major tournaments so Utah State will likely be scoreboard watching for a week. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 11 seed.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers (25-4, NET: 39)

East Tennessee State has a sensational record and a true road win over LSU. The Buccaneers’ resume might not look all that fantastic on paper but not many teams could make it this far with only four losses (one coming at Kansas). ETSU shouldn’t leave anything to chance, though, so winning the SoCon auto-bid is the best path. If they are unable to take that title, the Bucs will need to have won their last two regular season games (at Wofford, vs. Western Carolina) and likely made the SoCon finale in order to snag an at-large bid. Such is the life of a mid-major, sadly.

UNCG might also have an at-large shot if it wins out until the SoCon Tournament title, but I don’t think it is in a strong enough position at the moment to make that happen. East Tennessee State is in the best spot for the SoCon to get two bids. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 11 seed.

Northern Iowa Panthers (23-5, NET: 46)

Northern Iowa needs to win its last two regular-season games (vs. Evansville, at Drake) and then make the Missouri Valley Tournament championship game in order to reach the NCAA Tournament. If they win that title, the Panthers would obviously snag the automatic bid. Even with a loss, though, I would find it hard to see the committee leaving out a six-loss MVC team with quality metrics and a true road win over Colorado. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 12 seed.

Next. Bracketology Projected Field. dark

That concludes this edition of my bracketology bubble watch with Selection Sunday closing in. Check back again next Wednesday for another update.

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