Bracketology 2020: Examining mid-major Basketball at-large profiles

Bracketology 2020: Examining mid-major basketball at-large profiles

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: The NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /

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ST. LOUIS, MO – MARCH 9: Head coach Ben Jacobson of the Northern Iowa Panthers (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Northern Iowa Panthers

23-6 | NET: 48 | KPI/SOR Avg: 52.5 | BPI/POM/SAG Avg: 66.7

UNI has been one of the mid-major darlings of this year along with East Tennessee St. These are solid programs from mid-major conferences that played decent schedules and performed well against those schedules. However, there is a reason we’re profiling UNI here and not ETSU. The top-seeded Panthers fell in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament to 8-seeded Drake, a defeat both surprising and crushing for the Panthers, whose at-large case is not quite as strong as ETSU’s.

There is nothing remarkable about UNI’s resume, nothing that jumps off the page and screams at-large bid, which could ultimately be the problem. The NCAA Selection Committee wants to see whom you’ve played and how you’ve fared. Certainly, by that standard, UNI has done a good job this season with a 51st-ranked strength of record – unremarkable but not bad. A winning record of 4-3 in Quad 1 and 2 opportunities is good. Its best win is on the road at Colorado, which is also good, but the remaining resume unremarkable but not bad. Sense a trend?

The Drake loss added a third Quad 3 loss and that might be the nail in the coffin. The best comparison to make in a vacuum is to last year’s Belmont team. Belmont was 5-3 in Quad 1 and 2 opportunities with two losses in Quad 3, none in Quad 4, 38th ranked SOR, and 74th best non-conference strength of schedule. UNI is 4-3 in Quads 1 and 2, three Quad 3 losses, none in Quad 4, 51st in SOR and 113th in NCSOS. Belmont got in. Could UNI repeat that feat?

The best thing UNI has going for it is the relative parity on this year’s Bubble. Cases can be made for any of the high-major Bubble teams and none stands out more than the others. This could open the door for a UNI squad that did well with the schedule it faced, notwithstanding the severe damage wrought by the Drake loss. Unfortunately for mid-major supporters everywhere, it seems this resume is too unremarkable making an at-large bid unlikely.

Bracketology Prediction: NIT 1-seed

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