Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing cutline as Selection Sunday nears

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ST. LOUIS, MO – MARCH 5: Coach en Jacobson of the Panthers looks on. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Gonzaga, San Diego State, BYU, Saint Mary’s, Bradley, Belmont, Utah State, Belmont, Liberty, Winthrop, East Tennessee State.

Some Perspiration: None.

Double the Deodorant: Northern Iowa.

Long Shots: Stephen F. Austin.

Northern Iowa Panthers (23-6, NET: 48)

Bracketology Average: OUT (8.3% of brackets)

Northern Iowa needs help. As much as I would love to see the Panthers hear their name called on Selection Sunday, that is not looking likely at the moment. This team lost early in the Missouri Valley Tournament compared to expectations and suffered a big drop in bracketology projections as a result. They are now on the wrong side of most projected cutlines and will not get another chance to prove themselves to the committee. Bubble teams failing to win games – or even being upset by bottom-feeders – will be what UNI is watching for over the next few days.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (25-3, NET: 77)

Bracketology Average: AUTO (100% of brackets) – 12.28 seed

Stephen F. Austin is still the overwhelming favorite to land the auto-bid for its conference and that should make this paragraph irrelevant. If the Lumberjacks do fall, though, they will be a four-loss team with a road win over Duke. Almost all of their metrics indicate that this team would have no chance of an at-large bid but it’s hard to think that many other teams could roll through SFA’s schedule quite like it has. If SFA loses, I wouldn’t think that it dances, but that record and top-tier win are hard to ignore.

In short, dear SFA: Just win.

Next. Daily Bracketology Field. dark

That concludes this final edition of my bracketology bubble watch with Selection Sunday closing in. I hope that you enjoyed and that your favorite team will avoid sweating out the final week of the year.

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