Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing cutline as Selection Sunday nears

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WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 01: The Musketeers huddle. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Seton Hall, Creighton, Villanova, Butler, Providence.

Some Perspiration: Marquette.

Double the Deodorant: Xavier.

Long Shots: Saint John’s

Marquette Golden Eagles (18-12, NET: 26)

Bracketology Average: IN (100% of brackets) – 8.92 seed

Marquette should safely reach the NCAA Tournament. Not only are the Golden Eagles safely in my single-digit seed territory but they are featured in every single entry to the Bracket Matrix with a solid average seed as well. Despite this team’s massive struggles down the stretch, it should dance with relative ease. Marquette is simply way ahead of other bubble teams and recency bias shouldn’t change anyone’s mind about that. MU will get Seton Hall in its first game of the Big East Tournament and should still reach the Big Dance even if blown out.

Xavier Musketeers (19-10, NET: 41)

Bracketology Average: IN (95.2% of brackets) – 10.68 seed.

Xavier opened up the possibility of being left out of the NCAA Tournament field with how it finished the regular season. By losing their last two games, the Musketeers fell close to the projected cutline and to the No. 7 seed in the Big East Tournament. This means that Xavier will be tasked with facing DePaul on the opening night. That matchup is exactly what Xavier wanted to avoid because beating DePaul does not help its resume and losing potentially pops its bubble. This is a must-win game before facing Villanova, where a victory wouldn’t be mandatory. Xavier should be in a win-one-and-you’re-in situation unless there are unforeseen bid-stealers.

St. John’s Red Storm (16-15, NET: 67)

Bracketology Average: OUT (0% of brackets)

St. John’s could potentially get back into the at-large conversation with a run to the Big East Tournament game. In order to make that happen, the Red Storm would need to go through Georgetown, Creighton, and Butler/Providence in three days. This might sound like a long shot, and it is, but it’s also a possibility. The Big East Tournament is played right in SJU’s backyard at Madison Square Garden so there could be plenty of fan support.

SJU will have a good chance of victory over the hampered Georgetown roster. It also destroyed Creighton in the NYC area just a couple of weeks ago and the latter will be without Marcus Zegarowski for this meeting. If they are able to take those two wins (still unlikely but it’s possible), then it would come down to a matchup with Butler/Providence for a shot at reaching the BET title game. SJU’s resume is actually pretty solid considering non-conference wins over Arizona and West Virginia. I wouldn’t be holding out too much hope if I was an SJU fan, but this team is my “long shot” pick at an at-large (or as a bid-stealer).

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