Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing cutline as Selection Sunday nears

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FAYETTEVILLE, AR – FEBRUARY 15: Carter of the Bulldogs dribbles. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Kentucky, Auburn, LSU

Some perspiration: Florida.

Double the deodorant: Mississippi State, Arkansas

Long Shots: Tennessee, South Carolina

Florida Gators (19-12, NET: 28)

Bracketology Average: IN (99.3% of brackets) – 9.10 seed.

Don’t lose to the winner of Georgia/Ole Miss. It’s that simple. If Florida wins its first game in the SEC Tournament, it will be a lock. If it loses, then fans can sweat a bit more but the Gators should still be safe.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-11, NET: 50)

Bracketology Average: OUT (9.0% of brackets)

Mississippi State is right in the thick of the bubble conversation with a fairly pedestrian resume. The Bulldogs rank in the Top 60 of every single committee-used metric but none of those systems have them in the Top 40. They are also a relatively poor 2-7 in Q1 games this season as they have not proven that they can consistently beat good teams. With the SEC Tournament tipping off, Mississippi State probably needs to take two games to move onto the right side of the cutline. These victories would preferably come over Florida and Kentucky. Winning just one would keep the Bulldogs in the conversation but likely on the outside-looking-in. Not winning an SECT game would end their at-large hopes.

Arkansas Razorbacks (19-12, NET: 47)

Bracketology Average: OUT (1.4% of brackets)

Arkansas remains the toughest team on the bubble to gauge because nobody knows if the committee will deal with the “Isaiah Joe Factor”. The Razorbacks are significantly better with him on the court and their resume turned for the worst once he missed several games. Now that he is back on the court, Arkansas could make a push at the SEC Tournament but it it impossible to gauge how much work this team has to do. Their resume isn’t pretty but is within striking range, especially if the committee considers their now-resolved injury issues. Nonetheless, Arkansas will need to win at least two, probably three or more, games at the SEC Tournament to have a shot.

Tennessee Volunteers (17-14, NET: 63)

Bracketology Average: OUT (0% of brackets)

South Carolina Gamecocks (18-13, NET: 66)

Bracketology Average: OUT (0% of brackets)

Both of these teams are distant long shots that likely need to make at least the SEC Tournament semifinals or the championship game to return to receiving lots of consideration. They are not completely out of the picture, though.

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