NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 predictions
Top-half of East Region
(1) Dayton vs. (16) Winthrop
Joe Weidenburner
What can we say about Dayton that hasn’t been said all year? Obi Toppin is a certified National Player of the Year Candidate, perhaps the frontrunner. Jalen Crutcher is an uber-talented lead guard. This pro-style offense installed by Anthony Grant is super-efficient ranking 2nd nationally per KenPom while ranking the best in the nation on 2-point shots and effective field goal %. Pat Kelsey’s Winthrop Eagles have had a good season, winning the Big South conference tourney on their home floor as a 2-seed (based on tiebreaker – they’ve been the best overall team in the conference this year), but this is about as unfair as it’s going to get in round 1.
Winthrop ranks 274th nationally in 2-point defense and Dayton will have a field day inside. Both teams rank top-12 in points per game this season so it should be a relatively high-scoring affair, and I predict it to be among the most entertaining 1-16 matchups we’ve seen, if just for the show that is Dayton.
Dayton 88, Winthrop 63
Connor Gluck
Winthrop had a respectable season this year, with the highlight being a 61-59 upset at then 18th ranked St. Mary’s. However, its a 1 vs 16 seed and should not be thought about too much. Dayton has Obi Toppin and no one on Winthrop comes close to him. Throw in Jalen Crutcher and one of the most efficient offenses in the nation and Winthrop just won’t be able to slow them down at all.
Dayton 81, Winthrop 65
Arden Cravalho
Let the Obi Toppin Tour begin. He’s without a doubt the star player that every March Madness fan is going to make sure to watch each time he is on TV (similar to Zion Williamson last season). The spectacular dunks, the rim-rattling jams, the strength and athleticism he uses on both ends of the floor. Every college basketball fan is going to be “oohing” and “ahhing” at anything he does at the tournament.
Winthrop had a strong season with a win at Saint Mary’s and ended up being crowned the Big South Tournament Champions but the Eagles will be nowhere near talented enough to stop Toppin, Jalen Crutcher, and the rest of the Flyers.
Dayton 88, Winthrop 55
Dayton has no issues with a 3-0 sweep
(8) Arizona vs. (9) Oklahoma
Weidenburner
I’ve been a fan of Kristian Doolittle this whole season and I think Oklahoma is better than it played for the duration of the year, with a three-headed monster of Doolittle, Austin Reaves, and Brady Manek leading the attack. On the flip side, I think Arizona’s NET and predictive ratings tended to outpace significantly the actual performance on the court, and while many of the pieces individually (Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji) are very good, I never got the feeling that this team jelled to the point of reaching the collective potential the individual pieces suggested it might.
Arizona endured two separate difficult stretches this year losing six of eight earlier and finishing the regular season losing four out of five. I think a balanced offensive attack from the Sooners does just enough to get past an efficient Arizona defense, and I think Arizona’s shooting woes from down the stretch of the season extend into this matchup.
Oklahoma 75, Arizona 70
Gluck
This is a fun 8 vs 9 game. Both teams had their ups and downs through the year, with Oklahoma basically only securing their tournament spot with a late win at then 20th ranked West Virginia and Arizona doing their best to try to lower their somehow still impressive NET ranking. Both teams have a trio of double-digit scorers, but the Wildcats are led by three young freshmen and the Sooners by a trio of upperclassmen. Look for Arizona’s superior NBA talent (all three scorers are projected first-rounders) to overcome the Sooners’ experience. Nico Mannion has been looking to fully break out all year, and Oklahoma doesn’t have anyone to slow Zeke Nnaji down low.
Arizona 75, Oklahoma 68
Cravalho
Both of these teams didn’t live up to their preseason expectations and have been rather disappointing. I’m not really high on either of these teams and I don’t think this matchup will be too entertaining.
Although, Nico Mannion won’t be ending his Arizona legacy with a one and done entrance from March Madness. Mannion will attack Austin Reaves of the Sooners and the Wildcat’s offense will simply overpower a very inconsistent Oklahoma defense. The fact that a 12-loss team (could’ve been 13 if their matchup versus West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals wasn’t canceled) is playing in the Big Dance is kind of embarrassing. I mean, the Sooners only have two solid wins over West Virginia and a win over a struggling Texas Tech squad standing out from their resume.
Arizona 76, Oklahoma 68
Zona gets the 2-1 edge
(4) Butler vs. (13) North Texas
David Ackert
This Butler Bulldog team has had quite the year. One full of extreme highs and awful lows. Climbing to as high as #5 in the AP Poll, to falling completely out of the rankings after losing 5/7 to start February. While the Mean Green has been fairly consistent in conference play only dropping four games all year. This game will depend on if the Mean Green guard duo in Javion Hamlet and Umoja Gibson can go for their averaged 15pts a piece and shoot lights out from three each over 39% on the year! But, UNT has failed to beat a quality opponent all season and I think Butler rights the ship in time for March and returns to November form… at least for today. Kamar Baldwin heats up and drops 21pts and the Bulldogs move on.
Butler 72, North Texas 63
Stu Luddecke
Butler is just a team that has more than handled business all year against non-p5 competition. If you just go down their schedule and look at every game against low-mid major squads: 33-point win over IUPUI, 26-point win against New Orleans, 19-point win against Wofford, etc. etc. etc. If the Bulldogs had been struggling of late I might give North Texas and the Hamlet/Gibson tandem a chance, but they ended the season on three straight wins. Can’t see the upset here.
Butler 77, North Texas 59
Jacob Salcido
Butler had an incredible non-conference run before stumbling a bit in Big East play. The Bulldogs made a solid effort to right the ship towards the end of their season. Meanwhile, North Texas ran through the Conference-USA, posting a 14-4 record. This match-up is a good one, and one can expect a dogfight between these two teams. The Mean Green has played close games against tough teams, especially in the non-conference part of their schedule. However, they often found themselves on the losing side of these games. This game is no different – North Texas keeps it close all-throughout, but Kamar Baldwin and a hungry Bulldog squad prove to be too much to handle down the stretch.
Butler 75, North Texas 61
Butler gets the 3-0 sweep
(5) Auburn vs. (12) Yale
Ackert
Each of these teams has played in five overtime games this season. Yes, FIVE… each! Yale was an early-season pick for me to be a sleeper in March, and here we are. They find themselves in the coveted 12 vs 5 game looking for a chance at an upset. The Tigers have boasted one of college basketball’s best records all season, keeping them fairly high in human polls. But the computers have failed to be so hot on Auburn in 2019-20, despite jumping out to a 15-0 record then respectively 22-2. Maybe the predictive metrics were on to something as Pearl’s squad has won just 3 of their last 7 games to end the regular season.
Expect this to be close, very close. In fact, so close it will be each team’s SIXTH overtime game of the year! Despite Samir Daughty and Isaac Okoro’s 20 point games, there will be no back-to-back Final Four appearances for War Eagle nation. The Bulldogs pull away in overtime, thanks to Jordan Bruner’s double-double and Azar Swain’s 25 points!
Yale 88, Auburn 80
Luddecke
Auburn is an interesting team in that they have a Final 4 type of ceiling, but they’re also incredibly streaky and therefore vulnerable when they’re not playing their best hoop. Yale has been hot of late, winning 5 of their last 6, and as an upperclassmen-heavy squad, I like them to come in unintimidated by the big bad p5 team. I think the ultimate difference, in the end, is Yale’s ability, between Atkinson and Bruner, to take advantage of their size mismatches down low.
Yale 82, Auburn 76
Salcido
Auburn is a difficult team to figure out. One year removed from a Final Four appearance, the Tigers rolled their way through a relatively weaker non-conference schedule, en route to a 12-6 showing and second-place finish in the SEC. Yale posted an impressive 23-7 record this season, even boasting a win over Clemson in their non-conference play. These two offenses have shown the capability to score big throughout the season. That being said, this game is an offensive tug-of-war. Yet, getting pitted against an SEC team for their second straight NCAA tournament in a row, the Yale Bulldogs fare better, besting a Tigers squad that simply runs out of enough gas to prevent the first-round upset.