Creighton Basketball won the Big East regular-season title last year? Can they repeat the feat this upcoming season?
Creighton basketball and underrated should be synonyms. The Bluejays are one of the most underrated teams in the nation as they’ve been led by two all-time great coaches (Greg McDermott and Dana Altman) in recent years. They’ve had one losing conference season since 1995, and had their most conference wins last season since Doug McDermott was on the team.
The Bluejays are known for their offensive prowess as they’ve averaged over 75 PPG for each season since joining the Big East except the forgettable 2014-15 campaign. The 2019-20 team was 9th in the nation in three-point percentage (at 38.6%) and 27th in assists with almost 16 a game.
However last season, the Bluejays defense showed why they were an elite team. Buoyed by Tyshon Alexander who averaged 1.3 STL per game, the Bluejays only allowed 69.7 PPG overall (191st in the nation) and 71.1 PPG in conference, which was above average in the Big East.
All these statistics I throw out lead to the same conclusion, Creighton was really well last season. And they return quite a few guys from that team, that leads to the question about whether Creighton can repeat as the top dog in the Big East.
We’ll take a long at a possible replacement for Ty-Shon Alexander, the depth and newcomers to the team, and whether Marcus Zegarowski can be the superstar the Bluejays need.
So, let’s jump into three key storylines for the Creighton Blue Jays headed into the 2020-21 season, before analyzing the team’s expectations.
1. Who will replace Ty-Shon Alexander for Creighton Basketball?
Ty-Shon Alexander was the star of the Creighton Bluejays last season; he averaged 16.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG and made the All-Big East 1st Team. The former Oak Hill Academy standout was also a phenomenal defensive player holding Marquette star and First Team All American Markus Howard, who averaged 27.6 PPG, to 13 and 18 points in their two matchups. Meanwhile, he also held Big East Player of the Year and First-Team All-American Myles Powell, who averaged 21 PPG, to 12 and 15 respectively. Alexander is an elite player, so who can Creighton look to fill the void.
In terms of offensive production, I’d expect Mitch Ballock and Damien Jefferson to step up. Ballock averaged 11.9 PPG and shot over 45% from three; Jefferson only averaged 9.4 PPG but shot 53% and is much more of a slasher than a shooter. With both playing widely different styles offensively, they’ll be the main two expected to fill the void at the SG/SF positions, while Marcus Zegarowski plays a similar style to what he did this season. There are some other younger guards that could play a role, but we’ll elaborate on the next slide.
In terms of defensive production, neither Jefferson nor Ballock have shown themselves to be star defensive players, but rising sophomore guard Shereef Mitchell did average 0.7 STL while only playing 13.8 minutes per game. He could be the expected defensive stopper in the backcourt.
Next up, we look at the newcomers and depth of this Creighton squad next year.
2. Creighton Basketball’s New Recruits and X-Factors
Creighton has made some waves this off-season, but not much of that will impact the 2020-21 season. They landed Duke transfer Alex O’Connell and four-star guard Ryan Nembhard, but as of right now neither player can play next season.
Instead, we can look at the team’s most promising commit and some of their bench depth. We start with four start recruit and Georgia international Rati Andronikashvili. At 6’4, I’d expect Rati to be one of Creighton’s ball handlers and compete with Shereef Mitchell for the backup point guard role. However, the backcourt will be quite crowded next season.
However, even if Creighton plays small, they severely lack in frontcourt depth. Out of the Blue Jays top 11 scorers last season, the only ones above 6’7 was Christian Bishop, who still is only 6’7, and center Kelvin Jones who’s graduating.
One of the x-factors in the front court will be former top-100 recruit Jacob Epperson. The center sat out last season with a broken tibia, and could be a major difference maker if fully healthy.
The Bluejays also added three-star forward Modestas Kancleris from Lithuania. At 6’8, the second best recruit from Lithuania, according to 247Sports, will get an opportunity for playing time
And lastly, we look to freshman forward Nic Zeil. Zeil only played 46 minutes last season with eight points and nine rebounds total, but he could earn some playing time as Kancleris is unproven and Epperson’s injury is still looming.
I predict Epperson and Bishop to be the two forwards with Creighton trying a lot of small ball lineups and Bishop as the center. However, Epperson, Kancleris, Zeil and Rati should all be players in the rotation next year.
Next, we look to see if Marcus Zegarowski can make the jump into stardom next year?
3. Will Creighton Basketball’s Marcus Zegarowski become a star?
With Ty-Shon Alexander going pro, Creighton’s highest returning scorer is Marcus Zegarowski (16.1 PPG). Despite some injury troubles, Zegarowski becoming a star could be the difference between an underwhelming season and a run to the Final Four.
Zegarowski still has two years of eligibility left, but was fantastic last season season as he shot 42.4% from three, had a PER of 20.7 and 4.4 Win Shares along with the 16.1 PPG. His play making is okay as he averages five assists per game, but also 2.7 turnovers.
The All-Big East Second Teamer also averaged over a steal a game last season, showing he can be valuable on the defense end too. However, Zegarowski’s scoring is usually an indicator of how Creighton will play. The Bluejays went 8-1 when Zegarowski scored over 20 points in a game last season; this is compared to the 3-4 record the Bluejays held when he scored under ten points in a game.
It isn’t ground breaking to say a team’s record hinges on a star’s performance, but with no Alexander next season, Zegarowski must provide more consistency.
So how do I think Zegarowski will do? I’ll leave that to the next slide where I look at Creighton’s ceiling, floor, and how I believe the team (and Zegarowski) will perform next season.
Creighton Basketball’s Ceiling, Floor and Realistic Expectations
Now is the moment of truth, as I’ll divulge the ceiling, floor and realistic expectations for this Bluejays team.
So what is this Creighton teams ceiling? The team starts off hot, as they return a majority of their players, and Zegarowski admirably fills the offensive void left by Alexander. Ballock and Jefferson contribute well offensively, while Mitchell, Rati, and Kancleris all provide valuable bench depth for the Bluejays. Creighton beats Villanova to the Big East Regular Season title and enters March Madness as a top four seed, primed to make a deep tournament run.
On the other hand, there is quite a bit that could go wrong for Creighton. Zegarowski struggles or deals with injuries, along with Epperson. Without the production of these two, the team falls apart. Ballock and Jefferson can’t handle all of the offensive load. Mitchell and Rati aren’t ready to play serious minutes in the Big East; furthermore, teams with quality big men exploit Creighton’s lack of size. The Bluejays end up on the bubble, but I still believe they make the tournament unless someone is seriously injured.
So, what do I think will actually happen to Creighton? I think Zegarowski will make the step up to be a 20 PPG scorer, and Ballock and Jefferson will compliment him quite well. Mitchell and Rati will be proficient in the back court behind Zegarowski, but still a major drop off.
However, the front court does worry me, and it’s why I think they’ll finish 2nd or 3rd in the Big East. In the tournament, their depth in the front court could be the biggest difference between a first round exit and a Final Four run.
How do you think Creighton will do this season? Leave your comments below!