UCLA takes on Pepperdine in a battle of west coast programs of opposite strengths.
Headlined by two of the top guards in college basketball, UCLA and Pepperdine – two dangerous west coast programs – will battle in a huge non-conference tilt on Friday, Nov. 27, with several noteworthy storylines and future aspirations on the line.
UCLA is recovering from a disappointing loss to reigning Mountain West regular-season champs San Diego State, 73-58. Despite having three players tally double-digits, the Bruins were unable to continue the momentum that they ended last season with.
The Bruins were up-and-down last year, ending the season at 19-12 overall and, somehow, cementing themselves as an NCAA Tournament team despite an outrageously disappointing first few months of play. After beginning the season 8-9, UCLA rallied to close out the year 11-3 in their final 14 games.
Pepperdine, meanwhile, is coming off a significant season-opening victory over reigning Big West regular-season champions UC Irvine, 86-72. Multiple Waves players feasted on the Anteaters, with five players scoring double-digits and two more tallying eight apiece.
The Waves had a fairly solid season last year, going 16-16 and advancing to the WCC Tournament third round. They were led by one of college basketball’s most sensational guards and were routinely a thorn in some premier teams’ sides – most notably, Gonzaga, on two occasions.
This will be a clash of contrasting styles and incredible floor generals – and could be the start of an exceptional season for either program. Either way, there are a number of big storylines to note leading up to Friday’s match-up.
1. For the first time in their four-year careers, two of basketball’s best guards will go head-to-head
Friday’s match-up will feature two of the top guards in all of college basketball in UCLA’s Chris Smith and Pepperdine’s Colbey Ross. Both seniors who lead their team in scoring and assists, Smith and Ross are beginning the 2020-21 season in the national spotlight, with both being named to the 2021 Naismith Trophy watchlist for the National Player of the Year.
Smith‘s path to this position has been an uphill climb, to say the least. He averaged just 3.9 points his freshman season – but was the only player to average double-digits in his junior season last year. At 13.1 a game, Smith also ranked second on the team in rebounding with over five rebounds per game. His efforts garnered him Pac-12 Most Improved Player honors at the end of the year.
Smith’s leadership and production was a significant cause for UCLA’s redemption arc last season. His 30 points against Colorado – a career-high – was the catalyst for the Bruins’ turnaround season. In total, Smith tallied six double-digit performances in those ten games – including a 23-point, 13-rebound double-double display against Washington State.
Contrarily, Ross has been in the spotlight since his first year, when he led all freshmen in scoring (14.0 points) and assists (5.6 assists). After an All-WCC First Team sophomore season, Ross repeated that honor last year, cementing himself as one of college basketball’s best players by averaging 20.5 points and 7.2 assists – the only player in Div. I to average those numbers.
This past season was nothing short of sensational for Ross. He scored double-digits in 27 of Pepperdine’s 31 games, dished out double-digit assists in four games – and dished out less than five on just three occasions.
His season-ending battle against Saint Mary’s Jordan Ford in the WCC Tournament quarterfinals was one of the greatest head-to-head duels in recent basketball history. In a game that Saint Mary’s won in double overtime behind Ford’s 42 points, Ross recorded a game-high 43 points on an insane shooting clip (13-29 FG, 7-13 3PT, 10-11 FT).
This game will ultimately come down to which guard can perform better. Both have the potential of being explosive, and both will leave it all on the table for their final seasons. Do not be surprised to see a 40-point performance between both guards.
2. UCLA begins the 2020-21 season with unfinished business
Arguably, no one suffered as much of a tumultuous, up-and-down season as UCLA did last year. Without a single McDonald’s All-American for the first time since the honor’s inception in 1977, Mick Cronin struggled to begin his first season at the helm of the Bruins.
After starting the season 4-0, the Bruins suffered disappointment after disappointment. Back-to-back losses to Hofstra and BYU would be the first red flags for UCLA, followed by a 3-4 finish to the non-conference schedule – capped off by an embarrassing home loss to a Cal State Fullerton team that had lost seven in a row up to that point.
It was not any better at the start of the Pac-12 regular season. An opening win against Washington was followed by three straight losses – in all, the Bruins went 5-5 in their first ten Pac-12 games, with a solid win over Colorado but an 18-point blowout loss to Arizona State.
The Bruins turned on the gas after their defeat to the Sun Devils, however, ripping off seven-straight victories over some of the best competition in the Pac-12 – namely, Arizona twice, a road win at Colorado, and revenge against Arizona State. That streak ended with a last-second shot in the regular-season finale against USC, but UCLA’s turnaround was enough to – almost assuredly – land them a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Heartbreakingly, the Bruins never got a chance to continue their red-hot streak into the NCAA Tournament. For many, they were a sleeper pick, and there was genuine optimism that UCLA could advance fairly far into the tourney – something they have not done since the Lonzo Ball squad in 2017.
Assuming the 2020-21 season remains on, this is the perfect opportunity for UCLA to resume their unfinished business. They have already been picked to win the Pac-12 and were ranked 22nd nationally in the AP preseason poll. There is a genuine reason to believe that they can continue from last season without missing a beat – they return 86.4% of the minutes played and 88.8% of their scoring from last year’s roster.
If the Bruins hope to be taken legitimately this season, they cannot afford the missteps against mid-major foes that they endured last year. Their season-opening loss to San Diego State, albeit eye-opening and disappointing, is understandable. Their performance left much to be desired, but a win over Pepperdine would do well in righting the ship.
According to KenPom, Pepperdine (106) will be the best mid-major foe that UCLA faces this season after San Diego State. They can afford the loss to San Diego State – but a loss to Pepperdine would be deadly to their reputation nationally, and would not bode well for the Bruins after last year.
3. Pepperdine hopes to achieve something they fell short of last year: beating top competition
The Waves were so close to being so good last season. In a conference dominated by Gonzaga, BYU, and Saint Mary’s, Pepperdine finished the 2019-20 season with a dead-even 16-16 overall record – and an 8-8 mark in the WCC.
In his second head coaching stint with the Waves, Lorenzo Romar has done well to keep Pepperdine competitive in the WCC. They finished eighth in 2018-19 before improving that position to sixth last year. The issue, however, is that Romar and his crew were so close to being among the ranks of BYU and Saint Mary’s as a WCC contender.
The Waves suffered some ugly non-conference losses – namely, to California, Sacramento State, and San Jose State. However, they competed exceptionally well against most of the best teams on their schedule – among them, losses out of conference to USC (91-84), Arizona (93-91), and Providence (80-77).
In conference play, with the exception of San Francisco, no one played Gonzaga – arguably, the best team in college basketball last year – than Pepperdine. Whereas San Franciso played the Zags within four twice, Pepperdine gave Gonzaga their first scare in the WCC, losing in Spokane by just five.
In addition to falling to Gonzaga by 12 later on in February, the Waves also competed with some of the other top teams in the WCC. They lost to Saint Mary’s by nine (78-69), took San Francisco to overtime, and were swept by Pacific in one-possession games (59-56 and 79-78). The only WCC team they were blown out by was BYU.
With Colbey Ross now in his final season with the Waves, this is Lorenzo Romar’s best opportunity to make the NCAA Tournament. He has yet to be there in either stint (1996-99 and 2018-present), and this will be the first time Romar has taken on UCLA – where he was an assistant from 1992-1996 and was largely responsible for recruiting the members of the 1995 national title team – while at Pepperdine.
Defeating UCLA on Friday would be the first step in reaching the NCAA Tournament, which Pepperdine has not been to since 2002. If the Waves can close out and win close games this season unlike last year, they should be on the bubble.
4. Alongside the guards, the duel between premier posts is one to watch
Chris Smith and Colbey Ross are not the only ones who can be consistently relied on to provide scoring on the floor. Both teams sport post players who are their second-leading scorers – UCLA has, presumably, Jalen Hill, while Pepperdine features Kessler Edwards.
I say presumably because Hill’s status is currently in question. He suffered a knee injury during the preseason and has only just returned to practice in recent days. Whatever the severity of the injury it is, it is enough that it kept him out of UCLA’s season-opening game against San Diego State. The Bruins need him in order to be successful, and his absence could completely change the outcome of this game.
For UCLA, Hill was the team’s second-leading scorer with nine points a game. Again, this is a Bruins squad that only featured one double-digit scorer in Smith – meaning any other double-digit contribution was both rare and incredibly necessary in order for UCLA to win.
Hill provided that spark on several occasions, tallying double-digits on ten occasions. He was huge early on, contributing 22, 17, and 24 points against UC Santa Barbara, UNLV, and Hofstra, respectively. His clutch minutes were instrumental in UCLA’s seven-game win streak through the Pac-12, undeniably – most notably, his 13-point, game-high 8-rebound performance in a 3-point win over Arizona State.
Hill is more of a traditional post, something he differs greatly on from Edwards. In his first two seasons, he did not take a single three-pointer. His 252 shots have all come from inside the arc, where he has knocked down 137 – good for a 54.4% mark.
Pepperdine’s Edwards was not his team’s second-leading scorer last season – that honor belonged to his older brother, Kameron. However, with Kameron gone to graduation, Kessler – the team’s third-leading scorer last year at 13.8 – should slide in at the number-two slot.
Unlike UCLA’s Hill, Edwards takes three-pointers. His talent – and reliance – could not be any more evident than in Pepperdine’s season-opening win over UC Irvine. Edwards led the Waves in scoring with 20 (6-12 FG, 2-3 3PT, 6-6 FT) while tying for a team-high seven boards.
Edwards is coming off an All-WCC Second-Team season in 2019-20, where he led the conference in blocked shots (1.9) while finishing 13th in scoring (13.8) and fourth in rebounding (7.5). He is a do-it-all type of post, capable of filling out the stat-sheet in other manners, including in assists (five vs. Portland) and steals (three vs. Portland State).
5. Both teams share similarities and differences on both ends of the floor
Pepperdine and UCLA feature drastically different numbers when it comes to their offense and defense – but the clash of styles may ultimately favor UCLA.
When it comes to scoring offense and scoring defense, both squads were ranked on – almost – completely opposing sides in 2019-20. Offensively, Pepperdine ranked 45th in scoring offense (76.3 ppg), whereas UCLA was 228th (69.5). Coincidentally, both teams shot the exact same average last season, both draining 43.40% of their shots.
Contrarily, UCLA was fairly average in scoring defense at 67.1, good for 115th – but Pepperdine was one of the worst defensive teams in the country, giving up exactly ten more points per game. That 77.1 mark places the Waves at 327th nationally.
Those marks reflect in the team’s national placements in field goal percentage defense, as well. UCLA fared worse at 178th, allowing teams to shoot 42.9% – but Pepperdine, again, was one of the worst in the country at 45.8% – the 309th spot in Div. I.
For what it is worth, Pepperdine was much better when it came to those statistics in their season-opening win over UC Irvine. Despite the Anteaters ranking a stellar 12th in field goal percentage defense last year at 38.8%, Pepperdine feasted on them offensively, knocking down a dead-even 50% (32-64) of their shots.
Pepperdine’s defense numbers were solid against UC Irvine, too. Despite letting teams shoot nearly 46% against them last season, they held the Anteaters to a 39.1% (27-69) mark. Their defense in the second half, particularly, was better – after allowing 42.5% in the first half, they tightened up and allowed just 34.48% of UC Irvine’s shots.
UCLA’s stats were not nearly as stellar in their season-opening loss to San Diego State, however. The Bruins shot just 39.5% (17-43) from the floor, registering 58 points on the game. Their defense was also not up-to-par, either, allowing the Aztecs to drain 46.6% (27-58) of their attempts, giving up 73 points in the process.