Baylor vs. Illinois: 5 biggest storylines for 2020-21 matchup
1. The Bears feature one of the best collection of guards in the country – but their lack of a proven post player may ail them against the Illini’s monster center
Wednesday’s game will feature two of the most proven lineups in all of college basketball, as well as a number of the most skillful individual talents in the game. Headlining the Bears is a quadrant of proven and defensive-driven guards, while the Illini are powered by, arguably, the best guard-post duo this season.
Arguably, Illinois’s Ayo Dosunmu is the best offensive talent entering this game. A preseason AP All-American honoree, the 6-5 guard has been on a tear to begin his junior campaign, averaging 25.7 points after posting 28, 22, and 27 in his first three games. Shooting 55.8% from the floor and 42.9% from beyond the arc, Dosunmu is also averaging 7.7 boards a game.
Dosunmu will score double-digits in this tilt, no question, but the real showdown for the Bears will come in the post, where 7-foot Kofi Cockburn has feasted as one of the best big men in Div. I hoops.
Why Cockburn will be such a challenge for the Bears is because Baylor does not really have a “true” post-player. Their starting center last year, Freddie Gillespie, has graduated and left a huge hole inside, having posted 9.6 ppg and 9.1 rpg averages for his senior season.
Success has come for the Bears through their guard play. Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, and Mark Vital comprise one of the most offensively and defensively gifted quadrant of guards in college basketball, and all measure between 6-2 and 6-5.
Butler, Teague, and Mitchell have supplied the offense for Baylor, averaging 18.5, 18.0, and 12.0 points per game, respectively, thus far. Additionally, Presbyterian transfer Adam Flagler has provided a boost in his first few games as a Bear, averaging 14.5 thus far in two games.
Vital has been responsible for Baylor’s success on the other end, serving as the defensive cog for one of the best defensive teams in the country. At 6-5, Vital does not score much – he averaged just 6.1 points last year – but was a force on the boards (6.2 rpg, 85 offensive and 96 defensive) while collecting 50 steals on the season.
The issue for Baylor is that their success on the floor comes from their guards – with not much reliance on their posts. Flo Thamba, at 6-10, has taken Gillespie’s starting spot inside but has also only scored six points on the young season.
The Bears do not have the skilled post needed to restrain Cockburn, who has been a monster to start this season behind a 15.0 point/11.7 rebound double-double average. Without a doubt, Vital – at 6-5 – will draw the extremely difficult task of containing Cockburn, while the remaining Baylor guards will be responsible for Dosunmu.
Undoubtedly, even without any team-centric statistics, this is already an intriguing match-up of completely different lineups. This is all without even mentioning Illinois’s star freshman Adam Miller, who has been sensational behind an 18.0 ppg average – highlighted by a 28-point showing in his season debut.
Cockburn has the opportunity to feast against the Bears, and it will take everything from Baylor to ensure that the big man does not have a career night against them. Dosunmu will score no matter what – whether or not Cockburn can produce inside will determine who wins this tilt.