NCAA Basketball: Michigan/Ohio State recap, at-large hopes among key questions

3. Which team ranked in the top-10 is most likely to lose early in the Big Dance?

Brown

I have confidence in every top-10 team to make it past the first and second round of the tournament except Ohio State. I believe they have the pieces to do good things, but they’re not stronger than Illinois, who can make it to the Elite Eight at worst and Final Four if they’re lucky.

If the Buckeyes want to avoid an early tourney exit, they will depend on E.J. Liddell, Duane Washington, and Justin Sueing. They are the leading scorers, so more is required of them. For the Buckeyes to get over the hump, Kyle Young, Justin Ahrens, Zed Key, and Seth Towns will have to play the best basketball of their careers.

Outside of them, I’d also say the Iowa Hawkeyes. Their defense is atrocious. It’s not that great. If they go up against an excellent offensive team that puts up points in a hurry, they would be in serious trouble. Iowa’s offense can take them as far as it can go because of Luka Garza, Jordan Bohannon, and Joe Wieskamp.

Besides their leading scorers, I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen from Jack Nunge, Keegan Murray, and the McCaffery brothers. Joe Toussaint has been a guy for the Hawkeyes who can score but makes his presence felt more on the defensive end.

For Iowa to make a statement come tournament, their second unit needs to play just as well, if not better, than the starters.

Tineo

Due to poor defense and bad showings, I would not trust Iowa. There are teams that can neutralize a big man and outside of Garza, Iowa can become one-dimensional and are well below average on defense.

A team like West Virginia, who gave Gonzaga fits earlier in the year, is a team that can play Iowa well. The Hawkeyes have their fair share of bad losses, including a loss to Minnesota and being swept by Indiana.

I would not trust the Hawkeyes and would be surprised if they make it past the Sweet 16. It’s a very good offensive team but has glaring flaws that could see them being upset.

Zacher

It feels bizarre to say this about a team that’s sitting at 14-3, but it worries me how stagnant Villanova’s offense has looked as of late.  That is additionally bizarre to say considering Villanova has posted 96 and 84 in two of their last four games, but they struggled to get anything going at St. John’s, and – for most of the game – looked lackluster offensively against UConn.

For a program that has relied on a steady, methodical style of play, it has been a bit unnerving to see Collin Gillespie – Villanova’s floor general – look a bit out of sorts as of late.  The four points he scored against St. John’s are the lowest he has produced since February of last year, and his six turnovers in that game are tied for his most-ever, just matching what he recorded against Mississippi State last season.  It’s no coincidence that, arguably, his two worst games this season – St. John’s and Creighton – were both losses.

Villanova’s lack of depth is a bit concerning, as well.  Outside of the starting five, just two other players see time on the floor.  Three members of the starting line-up – Gillespie, Justin Moore, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl – have played in over 84% of Villanova’s minutes.

If one or two of those players get in foul trouble – and eventually foul out – at any point throughout the NCAA Tournament, that could spell ruin for the Wildcats against a really good team.  That’s not even mentioning Villanova’s awful 3P% and 2P% defense, which ranks 10th and 9th, respectively, in the Big East.

Zinkula

Prior to its disappointing loss to Kansas State, Oklahoma had been extremely impressive over its prior nine games, going 8-1 with road wins over Texas and West Virginia and a home victory over Alabama. That said, I think the Sooners are the most likely top-ten squad to lose early in March. If there’s a predictive metric that thinks Oklahoma is a top-ten team, I haven’t been able to find it.

Most have them outside the top 15. Additionally, Austin Reaves has been really solid lately, but as the team’s highest-usage player, I don’t completely trust him – particularly if he starts shooting a lot of threes. He’s one of only 3 players this season to make fewer than 17 threes on at least 71 attempts (23.9%).

Loose

When you look at the teams at the top of the rankings, anyone outside of the top 3 could falter on any given day with the way things are going. Most of these teams are battle-tested, so it’s hard to know which would lose to a 6 or 7 seed during March Madness. If I had to pick one, I’d lean towards Villanova; they’ve been far less tested and have dropped some questionable games this year.