NCAA Basketball: Evaluating “blue bloods” and “new bloods” heading into March

The New Bloods like Gonzaga, Baylor, and Villanova are thriving this season and all three have a legitimate chance of capturing an NCAA Basketball national championship in 2021. Villanova is currently ranked No. 8 and in first place in the Big East. Gonzaga is undefeated and No. 1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.

Baylor is doing very well as they are ranked No. 2 in the nation, first place in the Big 12, and are currently undrafted as well. Any of the three New Bloods have a good quality chance to win the national championship this season.

The Blue Bloods programs have had more adversity and obstacles this season. Some would argue that they were in disarray like Michigan State who struggled mightily in early Big Ten play. Another blue blood program Duke had lost six out of eight games in ACC play at one point this season. Kentucky a very well know blue blood struggled mightily, starting this season 1-6.

Another Blue Blood program was not in dire shape as the three mentioned above but  North Carolina struggled early this season going only 5-4 and struggling against ranked competition.  However, things are starting to look up for the Blue Bloods as of late.

Before an in-depth discussion begins about the possibilities of it not being a guarantee that one of New Bloods wins the NCAA tournament this season or that it is not a forgone conclusion that a Blue Blood program can’t qualify and make a run in the NCAA tournament this season, there are other teams in the mix.

There are schools that are playing very well that don’t necessarily fit the mold of a New or Blue Blood program. Teams like Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois who are currently ranked No. 3, 4, and 5 nationally have a legit opportunity to contend for a national championship in 2021.

Other programs playing well like Oklahoma and West Virginia have an outside shot as well as both teams are currently ranked in the top 10. However, let’s focus and take a look at the New and Blue Blood programs.

New Bloods

Villanova

Record: Overall: 15-3 Conference: 10-2

Rankings: Net: 10 KenPom: 11 AP: 8

Key Victories: Arizona State (neutral court), Texas (away), Seton Hall, and UConn

Losses:  Virginia Tech, St. John’s (away), and Creighton (away)

Baylor

Record: Overall: 18-0 Conference: 10-0

Rankings: Net: 2  KenPom: 2 AP: 2

Key Victories: Illinois (neutral court), Oklahoma, Texas Tech (away), Kansas, Oklahoma State (away), and Texas (away)

Losses: None

Gonzaga

Record: Overall: 22-0 Conference: 13-0

Rankings: Net: 1  KenPom: 1 AP: 1

Key Victories: Kansas (neutral court), West Virginia (neutral court), Iowa (neutral court), Virginia (neutral court), and BYU (Sweep)

Losses: None

Baylor, Gonzaga, and Villanova have a ton of momentum right now and they are not worried about qualifying for the NCAA tournament, they are focused on securing a No. 1 or 2 seed in the tournament this year.

They do have some teams from the Big Ten for example competing with them for the top seeds of the tournament but either way, all three of the above-mentioned teams are not worried about the same things that the Blue Bloods are having anxiety about. However, the season is not over and nothing is guaranteed as March Madness always has a surprise upset or two.

Blue Bloods

Duke

Record: Overall: 11-8 Conference: 9-6

Rankings: Net: 48 KenPom: 29 AP: NR

Key Victories: Notre Dame (away), Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and Syracuse

Losses:  Michigan State, Illinois, Virginia Tech (away), Pitt (away), Louisville (away), Miami (away), North Carolina, and Notre Dame

https://twitter.com/cbbonfox/status/1364030516429660160?s=21

Kentucky

Record: Overall: 8-13 Conference: 7-7

Rankings: Net: 65 KenPom: 47 AP: NR

Key Victories: Florida (away), LSU, and Tennessee (away)

Losses: Richmond, Kansas, Georgia Tech (away), Notre Dame, North Carolina (neutral court), Louisville (away), Alabama (swept), Auburn (away), Georgia (away), Missouri (away), Tennessee, and Arkansas

https://twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1363216636329615362

Michigan State

Record: Overall: 12-9 Conference: 6-9

Rankings: Net: 75 KenPom: 64 AP: NR

Key Victories: Duke (away), Notre Dame, Rutgers, Indiana (away), and Illinois

Losses: Northwestern (away), Wisconsin, Minnesota (away), Purdue (swept), Rutgers (away), Ohio State (away), and Iowa (swept),

The three above-mentioned teams are playing right now just to secure an NCAA tournament bid. Usually, they are riding the momentum of a conference regular season or tournament championship and looking to at minimum make it to the Sweet Sixteen. They all have uphill battles moving forward but all three teams have talented players and veteran coaches so don’t count them out.

The Month of March

From a quote from a Roman Emperor, “Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.” -Marcus Aurelius

Many college basketball analysts, bracketologists, and sportswriters have all but penciled in Gonzaga and Baylor to the Final Four and have Michigan State, Kentucky, and Duke missing the NCAA tournament. However, Blue Bloods are who they are for a reason. The Blue Devils, Spartans, and Wild Cats all have Hall of Fame coaches with talented rosters who can beat most teams on any given night due to the players they are able to put on the court.

The New Bloods are not unproven by any stretch of the imagination but it is not a guarantee that they are going to sleepwalk through the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament and are certain to earn an Elite Eight appearance either.

Out of the three New Bloods discussed here, Baylor plays in a very competitive conference in the Big 12 and has defeated some very good teams like Oklahoma and Kansas at home and away from home quality teams like Illinois and Texas. The Bears have very good guard play which is almost always a strong indicator of a deep NCAA tournament run.

However, I see Baylor losing to a team like Michigan in the Final Four after an impressive tournament run. Villanova with no disrespect to them and their Hall of Fame coach will probably be defeated by a team like Iowa or Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen. The Wildcats are a good, quality team, but teams like the Razorback and Hawkeyes have too much depth and will find a way to defeat them. Gonzaga will more than likely make it to the Elite Eight before losing to a team on a hot streak like Texas or Ohio State.

However, these are all just educated guesses but the Bulldogs are hurt by not playing quality competition in the WCC and their three quality wins are not the signature wins as they were thought of at the time. Gonzaga has great players on their front line but can their guard play lead them to a Final Four is the real question.

Albert Einstein once said, “In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.” For Duke, Michigan State, and Kentucky, earlier losses forced all three programs to have a sense of urgency. All three have responded with recent victories as proof. The Blue Devils have won their last for games that include two road victories and a win over ranked Virginia. The Wildcats have won their last three games that included two road wins as well as an impressive 15 victory over ranked Tennessee.

The Spartans have won four of their last six games that include a road win over Indiana and a victory over No. 5 ranked Illinois. Even though the road is difficult, all three teams have a path towards qualifying for the NCAA tournament.

Duke based on their NET rankings has the best chance. The Blue Devils’ three remaining scheduled games are winnable and if they can win a game or two in the ACC tournament, they will qualify for the NCAA tournament. Duke more than likely will make it into the Big Dance and even win a game in the tournament.

Michigan State has their NET rankings as an obstacle but they have many opportunities to boost their resume by hosting Ohio State, Michigan, and Indiana. They also have road games against Maryland and Michigan as well. If the Spartans can beat Ohio State, defeat Michigan at home, and either beat Indiana or Maryland, they have a good chance of keeping the consecutive NCAA tournament streak alive. Michigan State then wins at least one game in the Big Ten tournament, they can qualify as a No. 9 seed and get one win in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky has a rough road ahead of them but no disrespect to the SEC, it is more of a football conference than a basketball one. Meaning, the Wildcats have three very winnable remaining scheduled games before SEC tournament play. If Kentucky can win all three and make it to the SEC tournament finals, they can get in as a No. 11 seed which is more possible than many would give them a chance for. The Wildcats are talented and have momentum and they will use grit and heart to make it to the NCAA tournament.

If 2020 taught us anything, nothing really can be predicted for the future. The same is true of college basketball and sometimes there are too many assumptions and overreactions in the month of February. What makes March Madness and college basketball so great and amazing this time of year is that it is so unpredictable. Time will tell and we shall see.