NBA Draft 2021: Final Big Board of top 60 prospects before draft night
21. Davion Mitchell – Baylor
Senior – 6’1, 205 lbs – September 1998
I saw Mitchell live in December and was stunned he wasn’t viewed as a bonafide NBA player. That changed as the season progressed and Mitchell soared up draft boards. He culminated the season with a dominant NCAA tournament run and is now seen as a lottery pick.
Despite my early Mitchell love, I’ve cooled a bit in regard to the consensus. He’ll be 23 by the start of his NBA career, and he’s undersized for a guard. Mitchell has an undeniable burst and a great change of pace to beat defenders. He impressed as a shooter this year, particularly off the dribble. Defenders couldn’t go under ball screens. Mitchell shot 44% from deep last season, but I am a bit skeptical that sustains considering he was sub 32% in his previous two seasons.
Even with his lack of size, Mitchell is still a plus defender. He’s a harasser at the point of attack with his quick feet and hands. His plus wingspan is a positive off the ball.
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I don’t doubt Mitchell can come into the league and make an immediate positive impact as a role player. But his age and height make me ponder how high his upside is. These guards that are 3-4 years younger should conceivably be as good as he is now at the same age. Mitchell is a super hard worker and winner but I just have reserves about 23-year-old lottery picks.
22. JT Thor – Auburn
Freshman – 6’10, 205 lbs – August 2002
Thor is an uber-athletic four, with some shooting and handling flashes. He had some moments of self-creation, particularly out of wing spot-ups. He shot just 29% from deep in the season but was at 35% with Sharife Cooper in the lineup to create for him. He’s got a smooth-looking lefty jumper that should translate.
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Thor used his athletic tools to sky for some impressive dunks. He also had a 5.8% block rate. He was the only freshman who had a block rate over 5.5% and 20 made threes. There’s potential for Thor as a weak-side rim protector.
The Alaska native is definitely still a project. He lacks strength, particularly in his lower body. He was noticeably gassed after basic drills at the combine. He often floated on both ends, and still needs to process the game better. A year of G-League development could be good for him.
Continued growth for Thor could lead to him being a modern, starting four in the NBA. There’s enough to be optimistic about given his length, leaping, and shooting potential.
23. Tre Mann – Florida
Sophomore – 6’4, 190 lbs – February 2001
An offseason growth spurt and a statistical leap as a shooter boosted Mann to a first-round prospect. Mann is one of the best off-the-dribble space creators in the class. His start and stop moves and step-backs make him extremely hard to guard. Mann has terrific ankle flexibility that helps him stop on a dime. He shot 41% on off-the-dribble threes.
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When he creates an advantage, Mann reads the floor well. He finished in the 88th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Mann’s lack of strength causes issues at the rim, where he was sub 60% finishing. He can get bumped off his spot easily, and that makes it harder to get paint touches.
Mann’s shooting versatility and reasonable size for a guard will help him stick in the league, and an NBA weight room could help him fill into his body. He’s not a plus athlete and that limits his ceiling, but I feel confident Mann will play for a while as a rotational guard.
24. Alperen Sengun – Besiktas (Turkey)
6’9. 240 lbs – July 2002
Sengun is another one of my tougher evals, and ultimately, is another player I finished lower on than most. On one hand, it’s uber-impressive how productive Sengun played against grown men. He averaged 19.2 points and 9.4 rebounds on 64% shooting. He’s got a mature post-game, with great footwork and the ability to position himself inside.
But, Sengun has glaring warts. I’m highly concerned with his defense. He’s small compared to NBA fives and lacks the footspeed to stick with guards and wings on switches. He’s not much of a rim protector and it’s hard to envision him becoming one. Sengun is also not a three-point shooter at this stage. He did shoot the ball well from the free throw line and has good touch (indicators of a good shooter). But if he can’t shoot consistently, he won’t be as impactful offensively.
Sengun’s inside scoring should translate and I believe he’ll continue to grow in that regard. However, he needs high usage to succeed which is a rarity for a non-All-Star center. The goal would be that he becomes Enes Kanter 2.0, but even Kanter is a few inches taller and a better rebounder. Sengun should stick and I would take him in the first round, I would just be hesitant about taking him in the lottery.
25. Josh Christopher – Arizona State
Freshman – 6’5, 215 lbs – December 2001
A powerful wing, Christopher had an up-and-down season in Tempe. When he gets downhill, he can finish with his strength and leaping ability and is not easily discouraged by contact. He struggled with consistency from the rest of the floor and was oftentimes too inviting of a shooter. Christopher has the ability to make tough shots, but he needs to improve at passing out of those and creating more for his teammates in general.
His defense was more bad than good. He zoned out a bunch, frequently missing a rotation or flat-out losing his man. The good came from his freakish athletic ability, allowing him to recover to plays most players couldn’t.
If put in a proper context, there are ways to maximize Christopher’s gifts, without exerting too much responsibility on him. He’s never been asked to play next to a better creator before, and my optimistic side thinks that could do wonders. Yet shedding his bad habits may take some time.