Penny Hardaway picked up the biggest commitment of his head coaching career yesterday when Emoni Bates committed to Memphis Basketball for the 2021-2022 season. Just weeks after reeling in 5-star center Jalen Duren, the Tigers now have the makings of one of the most exciting teams in the entire country next year.
This isn’t the first time Hardaway has built a roster with elite talent – he landed the #1 ranked recruiting class in the country in 2019, headlined by James Wiseman and Precious Achiuwa. But great recruiting classes haven’t translated to success on the court – the Tigers haven’t finished higher than 3rd in the AAC under Hardaway and haven’t made the NCAA Tournament in three seasons.
Last season, the team failed to make the NCAA Tournament, despite having another former five-star prospect in Moussa Cisse, as well as a big-name transfer in Landers Nolley. They salvaged things with an NIT postseason title but the expectations will be far higher now.
The late additions of Duren and Bates make Memphis a must-watch spectacle next season. And there’s more to like than just the dynamic freshman duo – for the first time in Hardaway’s tenure, he will have an abundance of riches with a mix of experienced veterans, incoming transfers, role players and talented future pros.
Now it’s Hardaway’s turn to show what he can do with a roster worthy of making some noise in March.
Here’s a look at the depth chart for the Tigers in 2021-2022.
Point Guard
Starter: Alex Lomax
By far the biggest positional concern for Memphis is at the point, where the only two pure point guards on the roster include Alex Lomax and incoming transfer Tyler Harris.
Lomax seems the most likely to benefit from Bates’ scoring prowess. The Tigers’ multitude of talented scorers on the wing need somebody who is a natural facilitator to get them the ball, and that’s where Lomax gets the edge.
Lomax started only four games last season, but he enters his senior year with 85 games played at Memphis under Hardaway. He is the most veteran presence on the roster and the most gifted passer on a team with a lack of ball-sharers.
Last season, Lomax averaged 6.0 points, 4.2 assists and 1.8 steals in 21.6 minutes per game. He shot 45% from the field and 35% from three on just under one attempt each contest. It’s reasonable to think he could replicate those numbers, and even improve his assist totals into the 6-7 per game range if he earns 25+ minutes per night.
Bench: Tyler Harris, Emoni Bates (!!!)
Harris returns to Memphis, where he played the first two seasons of his career before transferring last year to play one season at Iowa State. Harris is an extremely undersized, inefficient score-first guard.
Memphis’ lack of options at the point will force him into the rotation, but if the Tigers’ season is a successful one, it’s likely Harris takes a back seat. With career averages of 36% shooting from the floor and more turnovers than assists per game, there’s not a lot he brings to the floor that the Tigers couldn’t find from someone bigger or more efficient.
There is one extremely fun other option at point guard, and that would be Emoni Bates. Bates has mentioned publicly that part of what appealed to him about Memphis was playing the same position that Penny Hardaway did.
While Bates may view himself as a point guard, the tape on him says otherwise. He’s one of the most gifted shot creators at the high school level in recent memory, but an Emoni Experiment at point guard likely wouldn’t result in much except for lots of bad shots and some eye rolls from teammates.
That said, I expect Hardaway to play with lineups in a variety of ways. There will be many times next season that Lomax and Harris are both on the bench, and whether it is a point guard by committee approach or The Emoni Experiment comes to fruition, it will be must-see TV from start to finish.
Shooting guard
Starter: Landers Nolley
Nolley was Memphis’ best player last season and will be a stabilizing force in the lineup entering into his junior year. He led the team in scoring (13.1 PPG), threes made (2.4 3PM) and minutes played (27.4 MPG) last year.
His role may change a bit on the floor, but Nolley’s veteran presence will be extremely valuable on a team set to rely heavily on freshmen. Nolley may need to initiate the offense more, and he may also need to get comfortable being off-ball while Bates operates in the late shot clock.
If Nolley can get comfortable alongside the freshmen, it will bode extremely well for him individually and the team. Early in the season, there might be some “Am I Batman or Robin?” moments, but ultimately Nolley is too good of a player to not contribute in a major way.
Bench: Lester Quinones
Quinones will battle for a major role, and it won’t shock me one bit if he is a day one starter. He has started 51 of 54 games in two seasons at Memphis and has typically been one of the best backcourt options Hardaway has had.
Quinones is one of the best sharpshooters on the roster. He made 40% of his three-point attempts last season on 3.9 attempts per game.
If he is making shots, he will force his way onto the floor in a big way. His shot has been streaky in his career so far (31% from three as a freshman). If the threes aren’t falling, he will need to find other ways to impact the game the way Lomax’s playmaking and Nolley’s all-around production can.
It’s a good problem to have, and it will be interesting to see Penny Hardaway attempt to pull the right strings.
Small forward
Starter: Emoni Bates
Yet another wing position at which the Tigers have an abundance of options. Emoni Bates enters college without the “once in a lifetime” billing he once had years ago, but with an arsenal of scoring moves that can help Memphis win.
Bates is a 6’8″, 200-pound tough shot taker with the ability to scorch the earth at a moment’s notice and a full bag of step-back jumpers, crossover drives, and post-fadeaways.
When he gets going, he and Chet Holmgren are the only two freshmen in the country capable of dominating a game by themselves.
But with the bag comes the baggage, and Bates may bring both. His stock took a slight dip nationally this year, after a poor stretch of shooting on the national circuit. He played for a handful of teams and had moments where he carried his team to wins and moments where he shot his team out of games.
Bates will start every game and could easily lead Memphis in scoring, but it will be fascinating to see how he is used. In prep ball, Bates hasn’t played in a very structured offense, and that might not change in college under Hardaway.
Whether that’s a perfect fit or a poor one will be anybody’s guess.
Bench: Earl Timberlake
Behind Bates is Earl Timberlake, a former top-30 recruit in the country who transfers to Memphis after just one season at Miami.
Timberlake appeared in just seven games for the Hurricanes before succumbing to shoulder injuries and being shut down for the season.
In his short stint on the floor, he showed flashes of being able to do a bit of everything, averaging 9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.7 steals in 27.4 minutes per game.
Along with Nolley, Quinones, and Bates, Timberlake solidifies the Tigers’ wings as arguably the best group in the country. The competition will be fierce, but all four will get their chances to make an impact.
Power forward
Starter: Deandre Williams
Williams stuffed the stat sheet in the frontcourt for Memphis last year, finishing second on the team in points (11.7), assists (3.4), and rebounds (5.8), and first in three-point percentage (45.5%) and steals (2.2) per game.
Williams’ playmaking and unselfishness will be a blessing for the Tigers next season. He can be relied upon to finish plays, make the extra pass, and initiate offense out of the post and from the perimeter.
There are some intriguing possibilities utilizing Williams as a small-ball 5 next season alongside Bates in the front court that I suspect will be given time to flesh out.
Bench: Chandler and Jonathan Lawson
Chandler Lawson arrives to Memphis after two seasons at Oregon, where he mostly served as a utility forward. As a former top 100 recruit with a good frame, he won’t look out of place when he finds himself on the floor alongside the talented Memphis wings.
His brother Jonathan is an incoming true freshman, the 99th ranked player in the 247 composite.
At 6’6″ and 160 pounds, Jonathan is better served at the 2 or the 3-spot, but it’s unlikely there will be playing time available there next season.
Hardaway has been known to play large rotations, and I expect both Lawsons to see the floor especially early in the season. After that, it feels like a stretch to project anything more than 10 minutes per game for them once conference play begins.
Center
Starter: Jalen Duren
After reclassifying into the 2021 class, Duren committed to Memphis and altered the course of next season for the Tigers.
Duren arrives on campus as one of the more physically-ready front court prospects in years. At 6’10”, 230 pounds, Duren has shown the ability to completely dominate the paint at the prep level and also switch onto perimeter scorers and lock them down.
It was actually Duren who overtook his future teammate Emoni Bates for the #1 spot in the 2022 recruiting class after Duren’s Team Final defeated Bates Fundamentals in a game in which Duren took the challenge of guarding Bates and made some critical game-clinching plays.
Duren will be productive as a college center because of his motor and stature alone. It remains to be seen if his skill level will be able to dominate against more bruising collegiate centers. 20-25 minutes per night seems like the floor for Duren, as there isn’t a ton of competition for the spot on the roster.
Bench: Malcolm Dandridge
Dandridge is a prototypical backup center at the college level. In 50 appearances in two seasons at Memphis, he has started only four games and played 20 minutes or more only five times.
Dandridge is a catch and finish big who has shot 60% from the floor on his career. He can make an impact when he isn’t asked to do too much, and with Duren in the fold and all the scoring talent on the wing, Dandridge is set up for success in the same primary backup role he has played for two seasons.
Memphis’ talent is that of a top five team in the country heading into next season. But there are legitimate questions such as:
- is there a quality point guard?
- how can the five best players on the team play together?
- are there too many cooks in the kitchen?
And maybe most importantly, can a Penny Hardaway-led team reach its ceiling?
There’s simply too much talent on the roster to miss the NCAA Tournament again, but I also believe there will be headaches at times throughout the year.
An AAC championship should be attainable and a 3-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament seems likely.
I’ll set the way too early over/under at 1.5 NCAA Tournament wins, and I’ll be taking the under.