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Pac-12 Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Mar 3, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Christian Koloko (35) reacts after a dunk during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Coduto-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 3, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Christian Koloko (35) reacts after a dunk during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Coduto-USA TODAY Sports /
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Pac-12 Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Pac-12 Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

Team to beat: Arizona

To put it simply, when Arizona is playing to the level that they’re capable of, there are few teams that can match their pace, scoring, and rim protection. They have the three-point shooting and transition creation to boat-race teams. The question has remained, however, if freshman point guard Kerr Kriisa can protect the basketball and handle aggressive ball pressure.

Power forward Azoulas Tubelis has maintained his masterful post-play as a scorer and rebounder. Centers Christian Koloko and transfer Oumar Ballo have been one of the fiercest rim-protecting tandems in the country.

Glue guy Dalen Terry has been a difference-maker as an auxiliary scorer, tenacious loose-ball chaser, rebounder, and pressure-release valve for ball movement, averaging 7.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists. Terry has been tantamount to Arizona being elite despite not having the depth in the backcourt that you’d expect from a top 5 team. Add the All-American Mathurin and it’s easy to see why this team has surprised the country and has them as a favorite to secure a top seed.

Largest threat to upset Arizona: UCLA

It takes a consistent defensive effort to challenge Arizona, coupled with the Wildcats missing shots to steal a game from them. If there was ever a team with the coach and personnel to do it is the Bruins and Mick Cronin. They won the first game of the season’s series thanks to a frigid shooting night for the Wildcats and a terrific showing of disruption by the Bruins in passing lanes and down low.

The Bruins are such a consistent team because of the elite facilitation of point guard Tyger Campbell. The Bob Cousy Award finalist is incredibly shifty and able to protect the ball while getting to the right spot to set up the bevy of scorers on his team or supply offense himself. He also provides the on-ball defense that could spell trouble for Arizona. Campbell is averaging 11.7 points, 4.3 assists, and 1.2 steals.

What will be the difference is if perimeter scorers Bernard and Juzang are able to find their stroke against the Wildcats. In their loss in Tuscon, they combined to go 1 for 7 from three. With Koloko putting a lid on the rim they will need to boost the scoring from the perimeter.

Most upset potential: Arizona State

To say confidence is lacking in the nine teams after the big three of this conference is an understatement. Middle-of-the-pack teams like Washington State and Colorado have proven the ability to fight with higher-level teams in the conference, but it takes a significant effort on defense to help bring the upper echelon of offenses to a matchable level. This was the recipe for Oregon State’s incredible run last season.

There really is only one team that has proven to play a tough enough defense to give teams like the Wildcats issues, and maybe surprising to some it’s been Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils. Arizona State is also coming into the tournament on a four-game winning streak, beating middle-of-the-pack Colorado and Stanford. If DJ Horne and Jay Horne are able to get hot from outside the Sun Devils just might be able to play on Friday. But with the strength at the top, that’s a mighty big “might.”