2022 NBA Draft: Who are the 10 best prospects in this draft class?

5. Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga Bulldogs

7-0 195 lbs. 7-6 WS

32 GP 14.1 ppg 9.9 rpg 3.7 bpg 0.8 spg 60.7 FG% 39 3P%

Shades of: Evan Mobley

Easily the most polarizing figure in all of the draft. Everyone and their mother has their own feelings on Holmgren. “He’s too skinny”, “he’s not going to last in the league”, “he can’t guard NBA centers”, are all relatable quotes or thoughts put out by those who have access to social media. Basically ignorance at this point when engaging with someone on the idea of selecting Holmgren with the top pick. A big fret on if he’s really this guy, I have my own reasons which I am going to disclose to his ranking being this low.

I first stumbled upon Holmgren when watching Team Sizzle on the grassroots level two summers ago when he was playing alongside Jalen Suggs. I originally thought this was just another skinny white kid who can block shots and shoot from expanded range, ala Kristaps Porzingis. Drawing those comparisons I waned away from calling this guy the #1 overall recruit like some recruiting sites were pegging him as. The lingering question in my mind is what can he do besides the two things I mentioned previously. Then the clip of him getting around Stephen Curry with a behind-the-back move set the social media world on fire. A new unicorn was getting glorified.

Coming into the 2021-22 college basketball season the hype was out of control. I recognized that at Gonzaga he would cover Drew Timme’s defensive flaws, be on the right side of Andrew Nembhard’s playmaking, and just benefit from eating up on lower competition. When my favorite prospect [Paolo Banchero] ended up meeting Holmgren in Vegas for a matchup I was personally dubbing it as the NBA Draft game of the century due to the fact that we can really see under the brightest lights who was the better prospect.

Banchero and Duke may have gotten the best but my narrative of Holmgren changed. No longer was there the doubt of whether he could survive at the next level against more well-built physical players. I knew he was going to make his mark on the defensive end. His early struggles scoring in the non-conference to the likes of Texas, Alabama, and Texas Tech weren’t indicators of him not being good enough. More or so I was looking for the wrong things. Holmgren isn’t going to be tasked with going to get 20-30 every night; his role is to defend, hit open shots, and provide a safety valve in some way or another.

Holmgren showed me that he has excellent blocking skills. The way he can block and alter any shot by just going straight up without fouling is impressive. A lot of shot-blocking big men are too eager to get a block that they become targets on the other end. Being prone to fouling lowers your impact on the court because you’ll be sitting eventually. Over the course of the season, I never had that worry about Holmgren being limited by foul trouble.

Whilst being an exceptional blocker due to timing, verticality, and being able to keep it in play he also demonstrated strong defensive skills. He’s a textbook rebounder and defender. On rebounds, he holds the ball strong and up so the defender can’t think about pickpocketing him. Defending wise he slides his feet well, absorbs contact in the chest area, and defends the backline like his life is depended on it.

Ranking in the 94th percentile on defending shot attempts around the basket, opponents had trouble scoring in the interior against Gonzaga. To speak more volumes on his defensive impact, Gonzaga was significantly worse when Holmgren was off the court (-4.5% FG%).

Next level he should project well as a 4 (for all you “he’s too skinny” truthers). He covers a lot of ground on the defensive end so you could pair him either with another rim protector (i.e. 2021-22 Cleveland Cavaliers) or an offensive-minded big who has trouble defending the paint. His helpside blocks are achieved due to his quick twitches, defensive acumen, and defensive IQ which processes at a rapid speed.

Holmgren showcased on the offensive end that you can stick him away from the basket during specific actions. Holmgren offers much more than a dunker-spot role. Proving he can spot cutters or kick to wing shooters. Thanks to his blessed height advantage he can see over his defender[s] which makes the passing in certain windows possible. Or even DHO action, Holmgren can be beneficial to making an offense run smoothly. He’s going to garner attention just off his size so why not use him in sets to show off his playmaking skills.

The short roll has to be in the arsenal of any playable big man. Holmgren executes it in a great fashion with timely footwork and positional awareness. He displays a soft enough touch from shooting from the outside to be a competent in between set shooter. Some of his outside shots come from trailing in transition. He’s shown the willingness and proper shot preparation to indicate going forward he’ll have a longer leash when pulling from deep.

Holmgren is this “low” on my board just because I buy offensive production more. However, I don’t doubt he can be one of the top players in this class due to his winning pedigree, confidence, and IQ on both ends of the floor. I’m not worried about the injury issues or even fit because he’s probably going to go within the top-2 picks. I trust he’ll have a long career. My only hypothetical question is if he adds strength is it possible he can develop an offensive game to where he’s an isolation player? Probably not, but one can wonder.