NCAA Tournament 2023: Top 10 most likely 1st round upsets to happen

2. 10 Boise State over 7 Northwestern

You could argue that these 7-10 games are close enough that they shouldn’t really be considered upsets, especially when you’re facing a Northwestern program that has only made one previous appearance in the NCAA Tournament. We’re focused here on Boise State because the Broncos actually opened as the betting favorite in this matchup. These players were here in the NCAA Tournament last year and have already beaten some impressive competition this season.

This is another team where the scoring comes from multiple places. Sophomore Tyson Degenhart and senior Marcus Shaver were big parts of last year’s success, while Max Rice, coach Leon Rice’s son, took a major step forward this season a senior. Both Rice and Chibuzo Agbo, a transfer from Texas Tech, shoot greater than 40% from outside the arc, but it’s not all about offensive prowess. The Broncos sit 14th in defensive efficiency, showing that talent in wins over Tournament teams like Texas A&M and San Diego State earlier in the year.

Their matchup finds them against a Northwestern team that also plays top-level defense but is a bit slower on the offensive end. When you boil it down, the Wildcats might have more talented playmakers than the Broncos, but Boise State is more likely to get hot down the stretch or hit their shots, even against a tough Northwestern defense. The Mountain West didn’t win a single game last year in the Big Dance, but Boise State has a phenomenal shot to pull this small upset early.