NCAA Tournament 2023: Top 10 most likely 1st round upsets to happen

6. 10 Utah State over 7 Missouri

If you look solely at the metrics, you could begin an argument that Utah State should’ve been much safer than a 10-seed that likely avoided the First Four based on their final few weeks of the season. This Utah State team plays great offense and finished 18th in both KenPom and the NET, but their 2-5 mark in Quad 1 games likely sealed their fate closer to the bubble. Still, you have plenty to worry about when facing the Aggies.

Five Aggies average double-digit points per game, though no one is as important as Steven Ashworth, a point guard who can score buckets in a hurry from all over the court, shooting nearly 44% from outside the arc. Ashworth alone can kickstart a postseason victory but he’s far from alone. They’ll get great contributions from leading rebounder Dan Akin, the first man off the bench, and from Taylor Funk, another sharpshooter who helps the Aggies sit 5th in the nation in 3-point percentage.

That figure alone is why Utah State can go on a run in March Madness; if they can hit their outside shots, they can beat any team. Their matchup with Missouri will be really interesting because the Tigers have really seen the tires come off at times this season, suffering a huge blowout to Auburn just a month ago in one of those performances. These are two strong offensive teams and the team that makes more shots will likely see Arizona in the next round.