One thing I love about college basketball is that it is always changing. Unlike the NBA, where you can get Steph Curry or Giannis Antetokounmpo and be great for 15 years, college programs have a limited window with each player. The best college coaches are constantly restocking the cupboard with fresh talent, and that makes each season and each NCAA Tournament unique.
Still, it can be fun to look to the past when analyzing your bracket to find throughlines between last year’s teams and those that will vie for their own shining moment in the coming weeks. So put on your geneticist cap (note: I don’t think scientists usually wear hats) and join me as we find the teams that share DNA with last year’s Final Four squads.
Every season is unique, so just because a team appears here doesn’t mean they’ll reach the Final Four. Heck, they may not make it out of the first round! It’s called March Madness for a reason. I will, however, take credit if any of these teams do make a run of their own. If they flame out earlier than 2022’s Villanova, Duke, Carolina, or Kansas, we can just blame it on the refs.
I once had a friend that liked to bet on every horse in a race because “it feels good to win.” While this is obviously the logic of a madman, I’m going to borrow a bit of that energy to also give four honorable mentions to increase my chances of looking like I know what I’m talking about. Think of these as second cousins on the basketball family tree; squint a little bit and you can see the resemblance.
This year’s Villanova – UCLA
The 2021-22 Villanova Wildcats reached the Final Four on the strength of a dominant senior star with an old school game and previous Final Four experience, plus a respected, well-dressed head coach that endured years of critics saying he couldn’t win the big one. A 2-seed, one of their most important players was lost to a late-season Achilles injury. Sound familiar?
This season’s UCLA Bruins are very reminiscent of those Wildcats. Whereas Villanova was powered by Collin Gillespie, UCLA goes where Jaime Jaquez takes them. Both ball-dominant players are the faces of their respective teams, and they each excel at the kind of moves that you might see at the local Y. Gillespie, despite being a 6’3″ guard, loved to play in the post, initiating offense by backing his man down. Jaquez is a master of pump fakes, up-and-under, and midrange turnarounds.
Prowling the sidelines for Villanova, in all his sartorial splendor, was Jay Wright. Long considered the best-dressed man in college basketball (though I will die on the Roy Williams hill), Wright left coaching after last year’s run as one of the most accomplished coaches of his generation. People forget, though, that Wright didn’t always have such an unimpeachable reputation. For years, he led Villanova to the tournament only to watch them fall short, finally breaking through in 2016 when Kris Jenkins drilled one of the greatest shots in NCAA Tournament history against North Carolina. Fun fact, this also doubled as the worst moment of my life. Wright further solidified his legacy two years later with a second title.
With Wright out of the coaching game, UCLA coach Mick Cronin has inherited the mantle of the game’s most finely tailored fellow. While Wright had reached two Final Fours before reaching the top of the mountain, Cronin has been to one, and he was also present (though on the wrong end) for one of the Final Four’s greatest moments, Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs’ running banked three from the logo at the overtime buzzer.
Both teams have had to contend with losing one of their most important players to an Achilles tear in March. In Villanova’s case, star guard Justin Moore suffered the injury in the final minute of the team’s Elite Eight win over Houston, leaving the Wildcat faithful wondering what might have been when the team fell short to Kansas one game later. For UCLA, they’ve been without Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark since he suffered his injury in the regular season finale against Arizona.
The teams do have some differences, namely that Villanova was a prolific three-point shooting team while this UCLA squad is in the bottom 7% of teams nationally in threes attempted. Both teams were rated in the top 25 according to KenPom’s adjusted offense and adjusted defense metrics, though Villanova was rated higher offensively, while UCLA sports the country’s top-ranked defense.
Could UCLA make a Villanova-like run to the Final Four? It may be more difficult considering that they’re already without Clark, but much like Wright and Gillespie, the team is in good hands with Cronin and Jaquez.
Honorable mention
This year’s Xavier team also shares some similarities with last year’s Wildcats. Senior guard Souley Boum leads the Musketeers in threes and assists, much like Gillespie did for Nova. Both teams hail from the Big East and rely heavily on their perimeter scoring to win, and Xavier head coach Sean Miller has had a similar track record to early Jay Wright, bringing highly ranked teams to the tournament but falling short of the summit.
This year’s Duke – Alabama
Tell me if you’ve heard this one before. A stacked team loaded with young, NBA-level talent, led by a future top-three pick, enters the tournament as one of the betting favorites after enduring constant media attention at the end of the regular season. Last year that team was the Duke Blue Devils. This time around? The Alabama Crimson Tide.
Last year’s Duke team was led by future #1 pick Paolo Banchero. The freshman was the top option on a squad that included fellow first-round NBA picks Mark Williams, A.J. Griffin, and Wendell Moore, Jr. All season the team was under the spotlight thanks to Mike Krzyzewski’s yearlong farewell tour, ultimately being vanquished, to my unending delight, by Carolina in the Final Four.
Alabama has faced a different kind of scrutiny, thanks to star forward Brandon Miller‘s alleged involvement in a shooting that left one person dead. Though Miller hasn’t been charged with anything, a cloud has hung over the program and how they’ve handled the incident. Miller, who might have had a shot to be the #1 pick if not for French Monstar Victor Wembanyama, is, like Banchero, an athletic freshman forward that few, if any, college players are capable of defending. Though it got overshadowed in the Coach K retirement tour, Banchero also dealt with some legal issues of his own for his role in a DWI earlier in the season.
Just as Banchero was aided by fellow freshman draft picks A.J. Griffith and Trevor Keels, Miller has 6’10” freshman Noah Clowney by his side. Clowney is projected to be a late first-round pick if he comes out in this June’s draft.
Alabama faces a similar path through the tournament that Duke faced last year. A possible Big Ten opponent could await Nate Oats’ team in the second round in Maryland, just as Duke had to go through Michigan State last year. And just as Duke had to beat a tough, defensive team in Texas Tech in the Sweet Sixteen, Alabama would have to most likely grind it out against either San Diego St. or Virginia.
One advantage Alabama has over Duke is upperclassman leadership in the backcourt, with junior All-SEC second-team guard Mark Sears and senior SEC co-Sixth Man of the Year Jahvon Quinerly. Will this be enough to allow Alabama to surpass the Blue Devils’ Final Four berth?
Honorable mention
Coach K was the story of the tournament last year, at least until Caleb Love said no he wasn’t. Going out with a title would have been a storybook ending for the legendary coach, and though Jim Boeheim and Mike Brey couldn’t be bothered to get their teams to the tournament this year to pursue a similar storyline, there is one coach that stands to benefit most from cutting down the nets.
Gonzaga’s Mark Few has long been considered one of the very best in the business, but he hasn’t yet reached Valhalla. I very much doubt he would ride off into the sunset if the Zags can win six straight, but Few has the most to gain from a title. And just as Coach K dragged Duke into “blue blood” status, Few has built Gonzaga from the ground up into a truly elite program.
This year’s North Carolina – Duke
Before I begin this section, I just want to send a personal note to my family and friends that no, I am neither kidnapped nor in danger, because what I’m about to write would usually be interpreted as a cry for help.
With that out of the way, let’s talk about last season’s Tar Heels. Led by a rookie head coach and former four-year letterman in his first year at the helm, after being elevated from his assistant position following the retirement of a legendary predecessor, Carolina played their best basketball at the end of the year, beating their arch-rival twice.
I’m fighting my gag reflex as I type this, but the easy comparison for this is none other than the team eight miles down the road from Chapel Hill. Yes, heaven help me, I’m talking about the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke spent much of this season underwhelming, but that all changed after back-to-back losses against Miami and Virginia in early February. Since then, the Blue Devils have won nine straight to enter the Big Dance as one of the hottest teams in the country. Two of those victories came against the rival Tar Heels, one of which spoiled UNC’s Senior Night in the Dean Dome. First-year coach Jon Scheyer has pressed all the right buttons after a middling start to the year, giving the Cameron Crazies hope that they’ve found the right successor for Coach K.
Last year’s Tar Heels followed a very similar blueprint. The Heels were led by rookie coach Hubert Davis following the retirement of Roy Williams, and though the team struggled for much of the year, the Heels kicked into gear in late February on their way to a title game appearance, notably beating Duke on Senior Night in Cameron, then again in the Final Four.
Both teams, when playing their best, were led by dominant big men. For UNC, Armando Bacot was the man, racking up double-doubles on his way to a second-place finish in the ACC Player of the Year race. For Duke, freshman Kyle Filipowski has gotten better and better as the year has gone on, earning ACC Rookie of the Year honors and a spot on the All-ACC second team.
Carolina and Duke will never escape constantly being compared to one another, and that will only continue, especially if Scheyer leads the Blue Devils on a deep run these next few weeks. Will he have a sophomore slump next year the way Davis and his Tar Heels did this year? Can Davis bounce back and get the Carolina faithful believing again? Will Carolina take my diploma after they read this article? There are too many questions, and too few answers.
Honorable mention
Last year’s Heels made the title game as an 8-seed, a feat accomplished only three times previously: by 2014 Kentucky, 2011 Butler, and the only team to win it all, 1985 Villanova. So which 8-seed this year has the goods to make a run?
My money is on Memphis. The Tigers, just like the Tar Heels, are led by an alum, Penny Hardaway, and they have the talent to beat anyone, as evidenced by their AAC title game victory over the #1-ranked Houston Cougars.
You could argue that the most important player for last year’s Tar Heels was Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek. The sweet-shooting big man wasn’t the focal point of Carolina’s attack, but his ability to stretch the floor was the biggest thing missing from a team this year that went from preseason #1 to missing the NCAA Tournament. Even more important for Memphis is SMU transfer Kendric Davis. Like Manek, Davis will be essential to any hope Memphis has to make a deep run.
As a bonus link, those Memphis State throwback uniforms are on the top tier along with Carolina’s classic argyle threads.
This year’s Kansas – Arizona
Let’s finish it off with last year’s champs, the Kansas Jayhawks. That team earned a 1-seed, shaking off the disappointment of the previous season, which saw them get blown out in the second round of the tournament by a lower-seeded USC team. With Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun on the perimeter and David McCormack providing the muscle inside, the Jayhawks’ versatility led them to the title. Arizona State transfer Remy Martin added a crucial scoring element that the previous year’s team lacked, and he helped turn the tide and erase a big halftime deficit in the national championship game.
I see a lot of that Kansas team in this year’s Arizona Wildcats. This team has multiple ways to hurt you, whether it’s Kerr Kriisa and Pelle Larsson on the wings, or Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo down low. Like Kansas, Arizona has bounced back following the sting of a disappointing finish the previous season. That team was the #2 overall seed in the tournament but got beaten in the Sweet Sixteen by Houston. Like the Jayhawks, Arizona added an impact transfer of their own, former Texas guard Courtney Ramey. Ramey made the game-winning shot in the Pac-12 Tournament championship game.
Though Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd doesn’t yet have the track record that Bill Self has spent decades cultivating, he’s one of the most highly regarded coaches in the country. Both teams won their conference title games against teams with the #1 ranked adjusted defense according to KenPom, an ability that is usually indicative of upcoming NCAA Tournament success.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Arizona is going to win its first national title since 1997, but they are on the shortlist of contenders.
Honorable mention
The Big 12 was the best conference in the nation this year, and the same was true last year, when Kansas split the regular season series with defending national champion Baylor. The Jayhawks then went on to win the Big 12 Tournament title, and both teams earned top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Who did the same thing in the same conference this year? That’s right, the Texas Longhorns. Rodney Terry’s bunch even added a second win over defending champion Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament final. The committee gave Texas a 2-seed, but I would argue that they should have gotten the final 1 over Purdue. Like Kansas, the Longhorns have all the ingredients to make a title run.
Every tournament is different, and everything we think we know almost always ends up being totally wrong. That’s what makes March Madness so great. The teams that make a magical run etch themselves in our minds. Who will it be this year? We don’t have long left to find out.