NCAA Tournament 2023: Top 10 most likely 2nd round upsets to happen

9. 5 Saint Mary’s over 4 Connecticut

These seeds may be just one line apart, but this is still a somewhat tough matchup for Saint Mary’s. The Huskies are a big strong team that will outman them in the paint, but there’s still plenty of hope for a Gaels team coming off a 12-point win over VCU in the first round. Their defense has been electric this season, allowing just 51 points to the Rams, but can they get enough on defense to stop Connecticut’s offense.

First and foremost, Saint Mary’s is going to need a better effort from star freshman guard Aidan Mahaney, who was held scoreless and was pretty ineffective on Friday against the Rams. Leaning on freshman guards can be challenging, and he certainly buckled under the bright lights in his first postseason game, but a strong effort from Mahaney could be a world of difference for the Gaels. Additionally, after a 17-point, 7-rebound effort against VCU, center Mitchell Saxen is going to need to rise to the challenge against Adama Sanogo and the rest of his powerful Huskies front.

Fellow guards Alex Ducas and Logan Johnson both had good games and the Gaels will need the same type of performance, but will they both take a step back after playing all 40 minutes against the Gaels? Mahaney might be the key to this upset, being the only starter who didn’t play a majority of their opening-round game. If he can hit his shots and run this offense smoothly, then the Gaels have a chance to get into the Sweet Sixteen.