The 2023 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament may have just begun, but 16 teams have already been eliminated. One of those teams is Arizona Basketball after suffering a 59-55 loss to the Princeton Tigers. After finishing second in the PAC-12 regular season with a 14-6 record, Tommy Lloyd’s squad finished eighth in the final AP Poll and earned a No. 2 seed in the South Region.
Despite having the seventh-highest scoring average in the country at just under 82 points per game, the Wildcats were outscored by Princeton in the paint, on the boards and off the bench. Now, as Princeton moves on into the tournament, everybody in Tucson is left looking forward to next season and wondering “what’s next”? for their beloved Wildcats.
Coaching Staff
Despite underachieving in the tournament, Head Coach Tommy Lloyd’s job at Arizona is safe. With a combined 61-11 record over two years and multiple Coach of the Year Awards at the culmination of the 2021-22 season, Lloyd will be back to continue the 19-million-dollar contract he has through to 2027.
If anybody was to move on from the Wildcats’ coaching staff it would be Associate Head Coach Jack Murphy. Murphy not only has experience as a head coach at Northern Arizona, he was also Associate Head Coach under Sean Miller. While there is no guarantee an Athletic Director will come calling, nobody should be surprised if one does.
Ramey, Henderson and Tubelis
After four seasons at Texas and one with Arizona, 5th-year guard Courtney Ramey will not be in the backcourt for Coach Lloyd next season. The former No. 41 prospect started all 32 of his games this season as he averaged over ten points, three assists and almost four rebounds per game. Ramey also brought outside shooting as he connected on five or more three-pointers three times including connecting on 8 of 16 versus Stanford. The 31 minutes Ramey averaged per game is the biggest indication of how important Coach Lloyd considered Ramey.
Another fifth-year senior is 6’6″ Cedric Henderson, who averaged just over eight points and twenty-three minutes per game. Henderson arrived in Arizona after three seasons at Campbell where he averaged close to 14 points per game. Henderson started 20 of his 35 games but was inconsistent with his offensive production. The Memphis native opened the PAC-12 tournament with a season-high 23 points and then 14 points in a victory over versus Arizona State. Henderson then managed just one basket in the conference final victory over UCLA as well as one basket versus Princeton.
The most intriguing and interesting decision lays in the lap of leading scorer Azuolas Tubelis. The 6’11 junior currently sits in the top 45 on NBA Big Boards thanks to his almost 20 points and over nine rebounds per game. After being awarded the Pac-12 Tournament MVP, his stock may be at its highest, which makes it no surprise he was asked about his future following the game and even less of a surprise he did not give a definitive answer. While starting all 32 games this season Tubelis scored double digits in all but one game, with a season-high of 40 versus Oregon.
There will be ample opportunity for Tubelis to play professionally, it will all depend if he want to go to Europe, sign a late second-round NBA contract, or return to Arizona for his estimated NIL value of $786,000.
Commits and (potential) transfers
After unsuccessful visits by five-star players Cody Williams (Colorado) and Kwame Edwards Jr (Oregon) the Wildcats have secured the commitment of four-star small forward KJ Lewis. The forward from Duncanville Texas currently ranks 56th on the RSCI. Despite his listing as a small forward on his high school team, at 6’4″ Lewis will strengthen the Wildcats’ backcourt as he has great vision as a passer and range from a distance. On the defensive end, Lewis has demonstrated the ability to apply pressure full court as well as defend in the half court. Cody Williams was not the only in-state player the Wildcats missed out on, as Coach Lloyd did not even extend an offer to Tru Washington who ranks No. 96 on the RSCI.
Coach Lloyd will have to replicate the success he had in the transfer portal last season when he secured the services of the aforementioned Courted Ramey and Cedric Henderson Jr. Currently the early transfer portal is thin on impact players that have ties to the state of Arizona. Phoenix native Carson Basham has entered the portal after leaving Pepperdine after two seasons and averaging over seven points last season. At 6’10” he would be an additional big body, but not the difference maker needed.
Lamin Sabally grew up in Scottsdale, but has only played a total of 458 minutes for UTSA over two seasons. Andrew King who attended Bella Vista Prep and averaged nine points with Houston Christian in 20 starts is a three-star point guard that could be a good depth player. The biggest local attraction is Nate Calmese who averaged over 17 points as a freshman in Lamar’s backcourt. The Wildcats are not thin on guards under 6’5″ but Calmese would be an upgrade over Kylan Boswell
Rotation
After the starting lineup, Coach Lloyd does not have a lot to rely on off the bench, making the transfer portal all the more important. At point guard, Kerr Kriisa will have to improve upon his 37 field goal percentage in order to start averaging double digits while maintaining his over five assists per game. Pelle Larsson who averaged just under 10 points as a junior will have added responsibility as well after starting 18 of his 35 games in 2022-23, all of which occurred prior to January 19. Rounding out the three-guard front will be newcomer KJ Lewis.
Center Oumar Ballo should return for his fourth season (third with Arizona) to occupy the post and continue to average over 14 points per game as he did last season. His 64 field goal percentage and over 8 rebounds per game were the perfect compliment, on the offensive end, to Tubelis to create an effective high-low offense as well as freeing Tubelis from having to guard big bodies on the defensive end. The final piece of the starting lineup is star forward and 2023 PAC-12 Tournament MVP Azuolas Tubelis. If Tubelis returns he will continue to be the focal point of the Arizona offense and will be looked upon to increase his scoring average to over 20 per game.
The best-case scenario is that Tubelis returns, but even if that is the case the Wildcats’ depth is lacking. The 2023 PAC-12 Tournament Champions had just seven players average double-digit minutes, as Adama Bal and Henri Veessar averaged under 10 minutes and fewer than three points to round out the nine-player rotation.
Perimeter defense and free throws
Many will point to the fact that the Princeton Tigers connected on just four of twenty-five three-pointers on their way to eliminating the Wildcats. Many would be amiss to look past the whole season sample size in favor of one game. The Wildcats averaged just six steals per game on the season and despite outscoring Princeton 12-11 in points off turnovers, the Wildcats managed only five steals in their loss. With just Tubelis and Ramey averaging above a steal (and slightly at that) per game, the Wildcats were still a top 100 team at creating turnovers, but it is the on-ball defense that could bring a different dynamic to the team.
Taking into account that the Wildcats attempted just seven free throws versus Princeton (when they average 21 per game) there is no guarantee the additional free throws would have been enough to change the outcome of the four-point loss. The fact is, Arizona connects on under 71 percent of their free throws. When you are among the top fifty in the nation in attempts, it is not a surprise if you come up on the wrong end of close games with a poor free throw percentage.
These talking points that need to be addressed in the off-season are only important if Azuolas Tubelis returns. If the 6’11 forward does not, the Wildcats lose their top scorer, top rebounder, and top field goal shooter. Without Tubelis, the Wildcats’ problems are a lot bigger than just perimeter defense a free throw shooting. Tubelis’ decision may come down to what he values more, name-image-likeness money or an NBA second-round entry contract.