Congratulations to the UConn Huskies, winners of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. In a year where there were no “great” teams, the Big East program proved otherwise, dominating everyone from start to finish in the Big Dance. At one point, there were ranked No. 2 overall in the NCAA Basketball AP poll but ended up as the last team standing.
So, it’s time to take a break until November, right? Nope. Because the battle for the 2024 national championship is already underway. The transfer portal has been open for under a month, with already over 1,000 players set to switch teams. Just about everyone is already affected and that’s even before NBA Draft decisions are set to occur.
All 361 D-I programs (Hartford and St. Francis Brooklyn are moving down) now are in the offseason and have plenty of work to do with their respective rosters. As of right now, which ones are in the best shape ahead of the 2023-24 campaign?
This piece will take a current snapshot of the rosters, listing the 25 best. There will be a few rules I use for consistency purposes:
- Players that are consensus first-round NBA Draft picks will be projected departures
- Players that are consensus 2nd-round to undrafted will be projected to stay until told otherwise
- All 4-year seniors will be projected departures regardless of eligibility until told otherwise
- All two-time transfers will be projected to sit out next year until told otherwise
- All “rumored” transfer candidates will be projected to stay until told otherwise
Even with these rules, it was still difficult to make a list. And ultimately, it’s pointless because it’s going to change completely a year from now. But hey, it’s content so let’s take a look at the NCAA Basketball teams to beat for the 2023-24 campaign.
HM – Providence Friars
2022-23 season record: 21-12 (13-7 Big East)
Expected losses: Ed Crosswell, Noah Locke, Jared Bynum, Clifton Moore
Although Coach Ed Cooley is off to Georgetown, he left new head coach Kim English with plenty of talent, including Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins. The addition of 15 ppg scoring forward Josh Odudo gives them one of the better frontcourts in the sport. Freshman guard Jayden Pierre electing to come back is big but they’ll need to add a proven ball-handler from the portal to be a threat in the Big East.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2022-23 season record: 20-13 (11-9 ACC)
Expected losses: Caleb Love, Leaky Black, Pete Nance, Dontrez Styles, Tyler Nickel, Puff Johnson
Somehow, losing three starters may be a good thing for the Tar Heels, as the current core wasn’t working. Star big man Armando Bacot is back for a 5th year, while RJ Davis remains instead of Caleb Love in the backcourt. The addition of Brown transfer Paxson Wojcik should help with the depth but the roster needs more work before being top-25 caliber.
USC Trojans
2022-23 season record: 22-11 (14-6 Pac-12)
Expected losses: Boogie Ellis, Drew Peterson, Reese Dixon-Waters
There’s a chance that leading scorer Ellis could come back for a 5th year, otherwise, they don’t have a double-digit scorer left. Having a healthy frontcourt of Vincent Iwuchukwu and Kijani Wright will be crucial, while No. 1 overall commit Isaiah Collier will determine this team’s ceiling. Watch out for a potential commitment from Bronny James this offseason as well.
San Diego State Aztecs
2022-23 season record: 32-6 (15-3 Mountain West)
Expected losses: Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell, Jaedon Ledee, Keshad Johnson, Nathan Mensah, Adam Seiko, Aguek Arop
It’s a bit unfair to the Aztecs to judge their roster just hours after the NCAA Tournament. They could bring back Trammell, who was a key figure in their Final Four run. If he comes back, they’ll have a good chance at getting back to the top-25. But they’ll need to find a replacement for Bradley, the team’s lone double-digit scorer overall.
TCU Horned Frogs
2022-23 season record: 22-13 (9-9 Big 12)
Expected losses: Mike Miles, Emanuel Miller, Damion Baugh, Charles O’Bannon, Shahada Wells, Eddie Lampkin
Right now, Miles has declared for the NBA Draft but the next two key players (Miller and Baugh) could opt for a 5th year. The team has made sure to secure the backcourt no matter what, adding Delaware transfer Jameer Nelson Jr. (20.6 ppg and 3.6 apg). Forwards JaKobe Coles and Xavier Cork proved capable of taking over without Lampkin, while Micah Peavy is a wing that can have an even larger role next season.
2022-23 season record: 23-11 (14-6 ACC)
Expected losses: Hunter Tyson, Brevin Galloway, Alex Hemenway, Ben Middlebrooks
The Tigers picked a bad time to be in a bad ACC and have two Quad 4 losses in non-conference play. They barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament and wasted what was an All-American-level campaign from Hunter. He’s one of multiple departures but the team still has an elite duo returning.
Forward PJ Hall tied for the team lead with 15.3 ppg and 5.7 rpg this past season and without Hall around, will take the lead again on offense for Clemson. Chase Hunter was injured for a bit but was the lead guard this season, averaging 13.8 ppg and 4.5 apg.
The key will be the supporting cast and seeing who’ll step up. Ian Schieffelin is due for a larger role in the frontcourt, while RJ Godfrey is a breakout sophomore to watch. Guards Dillon Hunter and Joshua Beadle are key pieces as well.
What recently jumped Clemson into the top-25 is the recent transfer pickup of Jake Heidbreder, who led Air Force this past season with 15.1 ppg on 40% shooting from deep. Plugging him into this offseason will work for all sides and allow the Tigers to compete for a top spot in the league and hopefully, make the NCAA Tournament.
2022-23 season record: 16-19 (5-15 Big Ten)
Expected losses: Brice Sensabaugh, Isaac Likekele, Sean McNeil, Justice Sueing, Eugene Brown
At the start of January, Ohio State was ranked in the top-25 and on its way to the NCAA Tournament. But they had the ultimate meltdown, losing 14 of 15 games to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten. And they’re going to lose their leading scorer as well as Sensabaugh is set to enter the NBA Draft.
Oddly enough, the Buckeyes were at their worst when the freshman became the team’s best player. His gone may be addition by subtraction in a way. And last offseason’s transfers didn’t work out well. However, there’s still some good talent left over that’ll make them competitive again under Coach Chris Holtmann.
Veteran big man Zed Key is coming back and will be healthy after dealing with a bad shoulder for half of the season. And guard Bruce Thornton (10.6 ppg and 2.6 apg) is going to be one of the breakout sophomores of next year. Two more freshmen reserves (Felix Okpara and Roddy Gayle), will have larger roles for 2023-24 as well.
Ohio State also has a top-10 incoming recruiting class, led by top-30 commits, Scotty Middleton and Devin Royal. Assuming that once again, one of the freshmen breaks out, this will be able to have a bounce-back season.
2022-23 season record: 24-10 (13-5 Mountain West)
Expected losses: Sadraque Nganga, James Milner, Marcus Shaver, Naje Smith
The Broncos ended up having a good season without any production from Nganga, the former top-100 prospect who didn’t pan out. Who did pan out was guard Max Rice, the son of head coach, Dave Rice. He broke out as a senior, second on the team with 14.0 ppg on 41% shooting from three-point range.
He’s already decided that he’ll be back for an extra season, giving Boise State its top three scorers back. That includes Tyson Degenhart (14.1 ppg) and forward Chibuzo Agbo (11.5 ppg and 4.8 rpg). That instantly gives them a core good enough to compete in the Mountain West yet again.
The Broncos have already found its replacement for Shaver in the transfer portal. Roddie Anderson averaged 13.1 ppg and 3.6 apg as a freshman at UC Davis, shooting 39% from the field. He had three straight 20+ point games to end the season and went for 17 points and 10 assists in a game against UC Santa Barbara.
With Anderson in the fold, Boise State will have a great starting lineup. They’ll need returners such as Jace Whiting or the incoming freshmen class to have an impact off the bench but right now, they’re in a good spot overall.
2022-23 season record: 22-13 (11-9 Big Ten)
Expected losses: Hakim Hart, Donta Scott, Donald Carey, Ike Cornish, Patrick Emilien
With Carey leaving after his 5th year and Hart entering the transfer portal, what Scott does after his 4th year is the key. His coming back would give them one of the top frontcourts in NCAA Basketball alongside Julian Reese (11.4 ppg and 7.2 rpg).
The big news already for Maryland is that its best player has already declared his return for a 5th season. Jahmir Young (15.8 ppg and 3.1 apg) is returning and instantly is one of the top players in the Big Ten. Guard Ian Martinez is going to have a bigger role as a senior, while wing Noah Batchelor could be a breakout candidate.
Head coach Kevin Willard has made it a point to recruit better in the DMV area and did that with the incoming freshmen class. Four-star shooting guard Jahnathan Lamothe is joining the backcourt, while top-50 wings, Jamie Kaiser and DeShawn Harris-Smith, should have an impact out the gate.
There are some rumors going around the Terrapins program that if true, could vault them up the top-25 power rankings. But for now, they warrant a spot thanks to Young and Reese coming back.
2022-23 season record: 27-8 (14-2 WCC)
Expected losses: Logan Johnson, Alex Ducas, Kyle Bowen
The UConn Huskies mostly ran through the NCAA Tournament but the one team that led them in the second half was Saint Mary’s. But after double-digit scoring wing Alex Ducas suffered an injury, the Gaels had no chance. He’s the one player on the roster that has a 5th year and if he takes it, this team will likely remain in the top-25 this offseason.
Despite losing WCC Defensive Player of the Year Logan Johnson, Saint Mary’s will have arguably the best player in the conference in Aidan Mahaney. The freshman star averaged 13.9 ppg and led the team to the overtime home win over Gonzaga, along with other key moments. Look for a bigger role for Augustas Marciulionis in the backcourt next to Mahaney.
In the frontcourt, interior defender Mitchell Saxon is coming back, while freshmen Harry Wessels and Joshua Jefferson will be key pieces once again. They also have another 7’0 center joining in Andrew McKeever as well.
Saint Mary’s tends to get underrated at first and eventually climb into the top-25. This time around, the presence of Mahaney has everyone on alert. Depending on what Gonzaga does, the Gaels may end up being the team to beat in the WCC.
2022-23 season record: 25-11 (11-7 SEC)
Expected losses: Santiago Vescovi, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tyreke Key, Josiah-Jordan James, Uros Plavsic
The Vols are in an interesting situation as only Key was without eligibility. Leading scorer Vescovi could come back, along with bruising big man, Plavsic. They do know that starting forward Nkamhoua won’t be around after entering the transfer portal this past week.
The one guaranteed returning piece on the team is Zakai Zeigler, the (mostly) starting point guard. He suffered a season-ending knee injury. The sophomore should be good to go for the next season. The team also has former five-star forward Julian Phillips coming back after averaging 8.3 ppg and 4.7 rpg and should be a breakout candidate.
Look for Jahmal Mashack and Tobe Awaka to have large roles in the offense as well, joined by an incoming freshmen class that includes four-star big man JP Estrella and top-100 guard Cameron Carr. Four-star forward Cade Phillips is another frontcourt freshman to watch as well.
This team lost some key defensive pieces but could get stronger on offense next season. And if Vescovi comes back, Tennessee will have its go-to scorer to compete in the SEC.
2022-23 season record: 31-6 (14-2 WCC)
Expected losses: Drew Timme, Anton Watson, Malachi Smith, Rasir Bolton, Hunter Sallis, Dominick Harris
Gonzaga’s roster is going through some real turnover right now. The program’s all-time leading scorer, Drew Timme, is gone. They also lose Bolton as well and Watson is a senior with a decision to make. They also have to find out what Julian Strawther does, as he’s right on the cutline of a top-30 NBA Draft prospect.
The Bulldogs won’t be in the preseason top-5 for the first time in half a decade. Still, don’t think a Mark Few-coached team would be down that much. Point guard Nolan Hickman struggled in the NCAA Tournament but another year of development would be good for him. And even though Timme is gone, Gonzaga does have a former five-star prospect behind him in Efton Reid, who is ready to have more minutes as the lead big.
Forward Ben Gregg is ready to have a starting role after excelling as a 6th man, while top-50 freshman guard Dusty Stromer will likely get a spot in the rotation. Four-star forward Alex Toohey also might be the latest in a long time of international stars that joined the program.
There are plenty of questions with this roster and if Strawther isn’t around, will need to kill it in the portal to remain viable. But this roster still has potential and without Timme around, will have more chances to showcase that.
2022-23 season record: 23-11 (11-7 Big 12)
Expected losses: Keyonte George, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, Flo Thamba, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchachoua, Dale Bonner
The Bears are in an interesting spot after the past 24 hours. It was long expected that George was going to be a “one and done” player to the NBA Draft. Flagler does have one more year of eligibility but already has been in NCAA Basketball for five seasons. The team may need to have him come back, because Cryer has not only entered the draft but is in the transfer portal as well.
The good news is that Baylor has a pair of top-30 guards joining the program in Miro Little and Ja’Kobe Walter, who now are set to get plenty of minutes early on. Langston Love is a breakout candidate to watch, while JUCO transfer Dantwan Grimes will be in the fold after sitting out a year.
The key is the frontcourt, led by double-digit scorer, Jalen Bridges. Caleb Lohner and Zach Loveday are back, along with center Josh Ojianwuna. There’s plenty of depth they have back, even after losing Thamba.
Baylor will take a little hit until it rebuilds in the portal but still, Coach Scott Drew has plenty to work with now to keep the team as a contender in the Big 12. The program’s success with guards gives them optimism that Little and Walter will be big-impact players next season.
2022-23 season record: 29-9 (12-6 Big 12)
Expected losses: Marcus Carr, Sir’Jabari Rice, Timmy Allen, Dylan Disu, Christian Bishop
Among the seniors on the roster, only Disu has the chance to return for a 5th-year. After missing most of his junior year, I could see him making that decision in a frontcourt that doesn’t have a ton of depth. The team does lose its top two scoring guards but brings back plenty, including Tyrese Hunter, who has the chance to run the offense on his own.
What makes the Longhorns interesting is that they’re bringing back a pair of former five-star prospects in Arterio Morris and starter Dillon Mitchell. Both had small roles compared to all of the veterans but both are primed for breakout campaigns. The program also brings in top-10 prospect, Ron Holland, a talented power forward that’ll get plenty of minutes.
Most importantly, the team is going to have the head coach that took them to the Elite 8 in Rodney Terry. He took over for Chris Beard midway through the season and steadied the ship. Now, this upcoming roster is all his to work with and there are going to be plenty of expectations.
But when you have Holland and another five-star recruit in AJ Johnson joining, talent won’t be the issue at Texas. And in their last year in the Big 12, it’s their chance to get one more trophy before departing to the SEC.
2022-23 season record: 35-4 (18-2 CUSA)
Expected losses: Michael Forrest
There’s always a mid-major team that gets a spot in the top-25 WTE power rankings because they return everyone from a team that won 20+ games in the season prior. FAU fits that narrative but the difference between them and others is that they’re coming off a Final Four appearance.
The only player from the group that can’t return is Forrest, who averaged 8.2 ppg and had 11 points in the NCAA Tournament win over Tennessee. But guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin are set to return after each had major games in the Big Dance. Nick Boyd, Brian Greenlee, Jalen Gaffney, and Brandon Weatherspoon all started games at some point, while big man Vladislav Goldin was a double-digit scorer in the post.
The Owls dominated a Conference USA that had two other postseason champions, including Charlotte in the CBI and North Texas in the NIT. And with Coach Dusty May sticking around for another year, this team has all the pieces ready to make some more noise in their new home, the American Athletic Conference.
Florida Atlantic can shoot three-pointers, play defense, and has 6+ guys that can score 20 points in any given game. Their run in the NCAA Tournament was no fluke and the expectations should be that they don’t need an automatic bid to get back a year from now.
2022-23 season record: 25-10 (15-3 SEC)
Expected losses: Tyrece Radford, Dexter Dennis, Julius Marble, Andre Gordon
There’s a little bit of cheating because officially, only Dennis has run out of eligibility. But still, the Aggies have plenty of talent on the roster, thanks to the return of Wade Taylor. He led the team with 16.3 ppg and 3.9 apg in a breakout campaign as a sophomore and will be one of the top players in the SEC next season.
This team won 25 games and finished second in the conference due to a ton of toughness and defense and that should remain the same. They’re set to bring in junior forward Henry Coleman and could even have Julius Marble back in his 5th season. Big guards Hayden Hefner and Andersson Garcia are back, while former top-30 prospect, Manny Obaseki is primed for a larger role next year.
Texas A&M has just one freshman coming in three-start combo guard, Bryce Lindsay. They should have Ethan Henderson return after missing this past season with an injury after starting 15 games the year before.
As long as Taylor returns, this is a roster that should compete for another top-4 spot in the SEC. But if he leaves, that could cause them to end up outside of the top-25 rankings.
2022-23 season record: 31-6 (18-2 Pac-12)
Expected losses: Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell, Jaylen Clark, David Singleton
The Bruins are losing a ton this offseason from a talent perspective. The top three players are gone, including Pac-12 Player of the Year Jaime Jaquez, along with Conference Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark and four-year starting guard, Tyger Campbell. The departure of David Singleton also hurts because he shot a team-leading 42% from three-point range this past season.
There’s a case that UCLA won’t even be ranked to start the 2023-24 campaign depending on what Amari Bailey does. The former five-star freshman prospect averaged 11.2 ppg and became a leading option when Clark when down, averaging over 18 ppg in the final nine games of the season.
He can easily be the top-scoring option for the Bruins next season. Also set for more playing time are guards Will McClendon and Dylan Andrews, while Adem Bona, another former five-star recruit, will be back for his sophomore season. The program also has a pair of top-100 forwards coming in Devin Williams and Brandon Williams, who the team hopes can help replace Jaquez and Williams.
This team will be bigger inside and just as athletic, although the shooting remains a question. And how the backcourt works out also is a storyline too. Look for them to be in the portal a bit to find more offense to pair with Bailey.
2022-23 season record: 29-8 (15-5 ACC)
Expected losses: Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller
The only player that HAS to go on this roster is Miller, who had a breakout season at the four-spot. But even if I assume that ACC Player of the Year Wong is gone after the Final Four run, the Hurricanes can bring back every else for another season.
That includes big man Norchad Omier, one of the few players in the sport to average a double-double and was a successful transfer from Arkansas State. Nijel Pack, who in some ways is the face of N.I.L., is back as a lead guard. And Wooga Poplar and Bensley Joseph are two role players that can take increased roles next season.
The frontcourt will be interesting next to Omier. Forwards Anthony Walker and AJ Casey could be back, joined by three-star commit, Michael Nwoko. They likely will need to add a true power forward from the transfer portal but the roster as is can be expected to be a contender in the ACC, which could be down overall.
But if Wong does come back, it’ll be hard not to have Miami as a top-10 next season, as they’ll once again have a top-5 overall backcourt capable of making back-to-back Final Four runs.
2022-23 season record: 28-8 (13-5 Big 12)
Expected losses: Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick, Kevin McCullar, Joseph Yesufu, Bobby Pettiford, MC Rice, Zach Clemence
First and foremost, we hope that head coach Bill Self is healthy after missing the first round of the NCAA Tournament due to medical issues. Assuming that he’s good to go, he and the staff will have some work to do with this roster. They lost Big 12 Player of the Year forward, Jalen Wilson, along with star freshman, Gradey Dick.
No one back for Kansas averaged more than 11 ppg but there’s still some good depth, particularly on the defensive end. Guard Dajuan Harris, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and second in the conference with 6.2 apg should be back to run the offense and will be joined by five-star guard commit, Elmarko Jackson. Four-star commits, Chris Johnson and Jamari McDowell will be coming in as well.
Big man KJ Adams is a breakout candidate to watch in the frontcourt after moving into the starting lineup. He isn’t a great fit next to Ernest Udeh inside but there’s plenty of talent available to find in the portal at the four-spot.
If McCullar opts to come back for a fifth year, he could become the lead scoring option for the Jayhawks. But right now, this looks like one of the best defensive units in NCAA Basketball with some offensive flaws. Still, Coach Self always finds a way to make the team into a Final Four threat and this one won’t be any different.
2022-23 season record: 21-13 (11-8 Big Ten)
Expected losses: Joey Hauser, Pierre Brooks, Tyson Walker, Malik Hall
The Spartans weren’t ranked in the preseason for 2022-23 and that proved to be a mistake, as Coach Tom Izzo was the last man standing in the Big Ten, making it to the Sweet 16. This time around, look for the team to have high expectations for next year.
Losing stretch forward Joey Hauser will hurt but Michigan State can bring back just about everyone else. For now, I have to assume that Walker won’t be back for a 5th year but there’s a real chance he will. He and AJ Hoggard is one of the better backcourts in the country and guard Jaden Akins is a solid rotational piece as well.
Malik Hall is someone else that can also return and is the ultimate “glue guy”. All of the bigs (Mady Sissoko, Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler) are coming back, joined by top-5 overall class of 2023 forward prospect, Xavier Booker. He’s part of a top-5 incoming freshmen group that includes Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears.
If everything goes right for the Spartans this offseason, they’ll have genuine Final Four aspirations next season. Never doubt Coach Izzo because if Zach Edey departs Purdue, this will be the favorite to win the Big Ten.
2022-23 season record: 22-12 (12-6 SEC)
Expected losses: Oscar Tshiebwe, Sahvir Wheeler, Cason Wallace, Jacob Toppin, Antonio Reeves, CJ Fredrick
As of right now, there are plenty of decisions that still need to be made with this program. Wallace has entered the NBA Draft, while Toppin (draft) and Wheeler (portal) are gone as well. Former National Player of the Year Tshiebwe could come back for a 5th-year, along with Reeves and Fredrick.
There’s also freshman Chris Livingston, who still could go pro as well. To make things even crazier, freshmen Adou Thiero and Ugonna Onyenso could be transfer candidates depending on what happens this offseason. Still, Kentucky can afford a few losses, thanks to the No. 1 overall freshmen class coming in.
According to 247sportsComposite, there are four top-10 overall prospects joining the program. That includes ball-handlers, DJ Wagner and Robert Dillingham, along with wing Justin Edwards and center Aaron Bradshaw. This is as talented a group of freshmen as Coach John Calipari has brought in but starting too many freshmen in the last year of the “covid era” for scholarships will make it difficult to win.
As usual, Kentucky will have a roster that has a high ceiling but a low floor compared to the rest of NCAA Basketball. It’s hard not to have them in the top 10 but based on what other programs do, the Wildcats will be a candidate to slide down.
2021-22 season record: 22-14 (8-10 SEC)
Expected losses: Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Makhi Mitchell, Makhel Mitchell, Jalen Graham
It was a season of ups and downs truly for the Hogs, as they both finished under. 500 in SEC play but still ended up in the Sweet 16 for the third straight season under Coach Eric Musselman. A big part of the inconsistencies was due to the injuries, including to starting guard Nick Smith.
As expected, he’s off to the NBA Draft as a projected lottery pick. Although there’s a chance that his teammate Black could end up as a higher pick. A guy who will return is Trevon Brazile, who averaged 11.8 ppg and 6.0 rpg before suffering a season-ending injury. He’s the lone true frontcourt player expected to come back but will be joined by five-star freshman commit, Baye Fall.
Another freshman joining is top-30 perimeter prospect, Layden Blocker. He’ll join the backcourt rotation and replace Smith. There’s also Davonte Davis, the hero in the upset win over Kansas. He’s in the NBA Draft process but could come back. Ricky Council led the team in scoring with 16.1 ppg and likely comes back, while former five-star prospect Jordan Walsh isn’t a projected first-rounder and could easily be a breakout to watch next year as a sophomore.
Arkansas has a lot of interesting pieces and once again, look for them to go into the transfer portal once again for a few impact players as well. Depending on who they reel in, could be a top-5 caliber team for 2023-24.
2022-23 season record: 31-6 (16-2 SEC)
Expected losses: Brandon Miller, Noah Clowney, Noah Gurley, Nimari Burnett, Dominick Welch, Jahvon Quinerly
The Crimson Tide was viewed as the best team in NCAA Basketball, thanks to the stellar season from Brandon Miller. The freshman’s campaign ended in a dud against San Diego State and he’ll be off to the NBA Draft as a top-3 projected draft pick. Another freshman gone is starting forward Noah Clowney, a freshman whose measurables and projections outweigh his limited stats this year.
There’s still plenty of talent left over for the Tide, even if Quinerly doesn’t come back for a 6th-year. The starting guard duo of Mark Sears and Jaden Bradley will be back and without Miller around, both of them will be able to score more. Freshman Rylan Griffen averaged 5.7 ppg in under 16 mpg off the bench as the backup wing but will be a breakout candidate to watch.
Starting center Charles Bediako is back as well, along with Nick Pringle in the frontcourt. The former JUCO transfer had 19 points in the NCAA Tournament win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christie and with more minutes is a player to watch as well. Alabama also has a trio of top-100 frontcourt commits joining the fold, led by Kris Parker and Mouhamed Dioubate.
Due to the transfer rules, Wichita State guard Jaykwon Walton may have to sit out next season. But if he’s able to play, that’s just another double-digit scorer that can have a huge impact on Alabama. They might not be the best team next season but don’t expect too much of a drop-off.
2022-23 season record: 33-4 (17-1 AAC)
Expected losses: Marcus Sasser, Jarace Walker, Reggie Chaney, Tramon Mark
The Cougars are set to lose a lot of talent this offseason. Leading scorer and AAC Player of the Year guard Marcus Sasser is going pro, along with projected lottery pick, Jarace Walker. They took another hit with starting guard entering the portal as well. That leaves starting point guard Jamal Shead, who is in the draft process but likely will come back.
Despite losing 3 of the top 4 players (for now), Houston still is in great shape as it heads to the Big 12. Starting forward J’Wan Roberts (10.0 ppg and 7.7 rpg) is coming back to anchor the frontcourt, while guards Emanuel Sharp and Terrance Arceneaux will have large roles in the backcourt. There’s also Texas Tech transfer Mylik Wilson joining the rotation after redshirting, along with Charleston Southern transfer Darius Bowser.
The top-20 recruiting class should have an impact for the Cougars too. Top-50 shooting guard Kordelius Jefferson will be a freshman to watch, while forwards Jacob McFarland and Joseph Tugler replenish the frontcourt.
This is a program under head coach Kelvin Sampson that doesn’t rebuild anymore. They do lose a lot of talent but are set for a big season in the Big 12 and among all the newcomers will have the best chance to succeed in year 1.
2022-23 season record: 28-7 (14-6 Pac-12)
Expected losses: Courtney Ramey, Kerr Kriisa, Cedric Henderson, Adama Bal
Despite the surprising first-round loss to 15-seed Princeton, Arizona still had a successful season overall, thanks to the frontcourt duo of Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. They were the best pair of big men in the country, combining to average 34.0 ppg and 17.7 rpg.
The issue for the Wildcats was the backcourt and its inconsistencies, which plagued them overall. There’s going to be some turnover now, as Ramey and Henderson have no eligibility left, while Kriisa has entered the transfer portal. The one guard left in the main rotation is Pelle Larsson, who averaged 9.9 ppg and 3.1 apg.
The key for the team is the new guards that’ll come into the rotation. Freshman point guard Kylan Boswell played in 35 games and recovered from a preseason injury and had four games of at least 10+ points off the bench. That included back-to-back 14-point games against both UCLA and USC. He’ll be taking over from Kriisa to run the offense, while top-50 commit KJ Lewis is another newcomer to the backcourt.
Ballo is a 4th-year senior, while Tubelis is a potential pro prospect. If either leaves, Arizona will take a nosedive down the rankings. But if they’re back and Boswell is a breakout performer, they’ll be a top-10 caliber team once again.
2022-23 season record: 24-13 (14-6 Big East)
Expected losses: Mason Miller, Baylor Scheierman
After being left for dead after a 6-game losing streak, Creighton found a way to rebound and get itself a minute away from the Final Four. And while it’s not 100% given, 4/5th of the starting lineup could come back for another year. That includes big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, the two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year and leading scorer for the team.
Guards Trey Alexander and Ryan Nembhard were double-digit scorers and each had impressive games in the NCAA Tournament. If they’re back, these two will be one of the best backcourts in the country. The player with the highest NBA Draft stock is Arthur Kaluma but even if he goes pro, they already have a commitment from Virginia transfer Isaac Traudt, a former top-60 prospect that didn’t play much last season.
All eyes will be on Scheierman, who averaged 12.8 ppg and 3.3 apg this past season on 36% shooting from three-point range. The former Summit League Player of the Year has a choice on a 5th year if he chooses.
This roster proved preseason predictions right and there’s a lot to like about this roster. They can return everyone but will it happen, that remains to be seen.
2022-23 season record: 29-7 (17-3 Big East)
Expected losses: Zach Wrightsil, Keeyan Itejere
A year ago, the Golden Eagles had lost its two best players and didn’t add anyone from the transfer portal. I thought they were going to be in trouble in the Big East. Instead, they were the champions and were a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This time around, they’re set to return 99% of its total production and the entire rotation from a 29-win roster.
Of course, there’s a chance that they could lose one of their two starting forwards, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Oso Ighodaro. Both were double-digit scorers and quality defenders with the skillset and athleticism that pro teams would like.
Leading scorer Kameron Jones (15.1 ppg) is also set to return, as well as Tyler Kolek, who is the Big East Player of the Year. He averaged 12.9 ppg and 7.5 apg, which ranked 3rd in all of NCAA Basketball. With both Markquis Nowell and Yuri Collins going pro, Kolek can be the best pure passer in the country next season.
With David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell, and Sean Jones also set to return, Marquette has just about everything needed to run it back as a Final Four contender. Coach Shaka Smart has had some great teams in his coaching career but assuming this team remains in tact, will be his best one to date.
3. Duke Blue Devils
2022-23 season record: 27-9 (14-6 ACC)
Expected losses: Jacob Grandison, Dariq Whitehead
There’s an expectation that the teams will be moving around throughout the offseason of these power rankings. Yet no program will have a bigger variance than Duke, which still has several decisions to be made. Per the rules, I have to assume that all of them will be coming back since none of them are projected first-round picks.
The only one that is projected is Whitehead, who has already announced his departure. He battled with injuries and averaged 8.3 ppg but the team will be fine without him. The good news is that they have two freshmen starters back in Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell, both of whom could be breakout stars in 2023-24.
Three others can come back, including center Dereck Lively and leading scorer/rebounder, Kyle Filipowski. His return would make the Blue Devils an instant national title contender and he’d be the rare freshman star that actually returns for the ACC program.
Don’t forget that Duke has a top-2 incoming recruiting class as well, featuring five five-star prospects. Two of them are Caleb Foster and Jared McClain, along with top-5 wing, Mackenzie Mgbako. There’s too much talent on this roster for there not to be a couple of departures somewhere but depending on who they are, this team could be the one to beat next season.
2022-23 season record: 29-6 (15-5 Big Ten)
Expected losses: David Jenkins
There wasn’t a clear No. 1 team this past NCAA Basketball, though a trio of teams (Houston, Alabama, Purdue) took the spot in the AP rankings most of the time. Two of those teams will have to reload their rosters for a bit, while the Boilermakers could run back just about its entire rotation.
Of course, that’s ultimately going to depend on what star Zach Edey does. The 7’4 center was the clear National Player of the Year, averaging 22.3 ppg and 12.9 rpg. He led the nation in double-doubles and had a bunch of 30+ point games. He isn’t a projected top-45 pick but with someone his size, Edey may want to start his pro career.
The Boilermakers have a pair of young guards in Fletcher Loyer and Branden Smith who combined for 20.7 ppg and 6.8 apg this season. Both have played well as freshmen and have very bright futures going forward. There are also a bunch of role players coming back, including Caleb Furst, Brandon Newman, Mason Gillis, and Ethan Morton.
Despite the first-round loss to Fairleigh Dickinson, this team, as currently constructed, is still one of the best in NCAA Basketball. And if Edey comes back, it’ll be the second straight year that the sport returns its National POY winner.
2022-23 season record: 31-8 (13-7 Big East)
Expected losses: Tristen Newton, Jordan Hawkins, Joey Calcaterra, Naheim Alleyne
There’s going to be some pushback on this because I could easily be accused of living in the moment. I would argue that even assuming that Hawkins leaves for the NBA Draft (protected top-20 pick), there’s still plenty of talent left over.
There’s even a question about the fate of leading scorer and rebounder, Adama Sanogo. Whether he goes pro or not, his backup, Donovan Clingan, is going to be a national breakout candidate one way or another. The freshman, starting forward Alex Karaban, is set to return as another impact player.
UConn loses a bunch of guards but its top passer and constant triple-double threat will be back in Andre Jackson. He’s joined by a top-5 recruiting class, led by five-star combo guard, Stephon Castle. He may actually be better than any of the outgoing guards on the roster. Four-stars Solomon Ball and Jaylin Stewart also join the rotation.
What makes UConn my way-too-early preseason No. 1 team is that even if the worst-case scenario occurs with roster changes, they’re already prepared with a backup plan before even dealing with the transfer portal. There may be a few teams who land players that get them in the convo for the top spot but right now, it’s the national champions to lose.