Indiana Basketball: Impact of Hoosiers landing 5-star forward Mackenzie Mgbako

It’s been an incredibly busy offseason for Indiana Basketball, knowing that it had to replace a ton of production in its starting lineup. Star forward and leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis is off to the pros, along with freshman and projected 1st-round NBA Draft pick, Jalen Hood-Schifino.

Coach Mike Woodson was busy in the transfer portal early on, landing three frontcourt transfers. The first was Ball State center Payton Sparks, followed by former five-star prospect, Kel’el Ware from Oregon. Reserve forward Anthony Walker rounded out the first group of pickups to rebuild the frontcourt.

But after missing out on a few recruiting targets, the Hoosiers’ roster was starting to look shaky. Yet one more option came up in Mackenzie Mgbako, a five-star prospect in the 2023 recruiting class that was initially committed to the Duke Blue Devils. He and they parted ways and before Ron Holland left Texas, he was the top available incoming freshman.

Indiana became one of four programs seriously in the mix for the 6’8 combo forward. At one point, both St. John’s and Louisville were viewed as favorites to land Mgbako. Turned out that the biggest threat to the Hoosiers was the Kansas Jayhawks. In the past 72 hours before a commitment, it looked as if the Big 12 juggernaut was going to land him. But like most recruiting battles, a surprise was in store.

It’s a massive pickup for Indiana Basketball, one that could turn them into a contender in the Big Ten next season. Mgbako is the third incoming freshman for the Hoosiers, joining four-star prospects, Gabe Cupps and Jakai Newton.

There’s plenty to take away from this announcement, for the player, team, and Big Ten overall. Here are my thoughts on Mackenzie Mgbako going to Indiana.

Indiana Basketball’s roster now with Mgbako on it

When it comes to impact players for the Hoosiers, the only guy you can rely upon is the point guard Johnson, who is coming off an injury. Everyone else is based on potential, including Mgbako. That makes Indiana a team worth watching because they’ll have one of the higher ceilings in the league, as well as one of the lower floors.

Just looking at the frontcourt, you have a trio of five-star prospects (Ware. Reneau, Mgbako) set to start together. Reneau is a definite breakout candidate after averaging 6.1 ppg and 3.7 rpg in just 15 mpg off the bench. He’s a good offensive threat but the 6’9 forward shot just 2/8 from three-point range and doesn’t stretch the floor. Neither does Ware or Sparks at the five-spot.

That creates pressure on Mgbako to provide some level of spacing on offense. He has “potential” as a shooter but he’s not a quality spot-up guy. The five-star prospect is someone that can create but more inside the basket. There’s also Johnson, who is as streaky as it comes as a shooter from the perimeter.

That ultimately might be the price that Indiana pays to have this much talent on the frontcourt. They’ll have to settle potentially for some 4/20 three-point shooting games during next season but with the offensive talent on the floor, they may have enough ways to create points to not overly rely on the 3-point shot in order to win games.

That may not have an individual star like Jackson-Davis anymore to lead the frontcourt but Indiana Basketball could collectively be better inside if the team pulls out the potential of the forwards.

How the other three programs handle not landing Mackenzie Mgbako

While it wasn’t the longest recruitment in the world, the three programs that weren’t able to land the five-star forward did suffer a bit of a setback. However, all three are still in good shape.

Kansas Jayhawks

The Big 12 program was hoping to use the momentum from the Hunter Dickinson victory to land another frontcourt star. And after losing both Zuby Ejiofor and Ernest Udeh, the Jayhawks have just the Michigan transfer and KJ Adams inside. And assuming that wing Kevin McCullar doesn’t come back, they’ll have to either look for another forward or just start Towson transfer Nicolas Timberlake at the 3-spot, along with Texas transfer Arterio Morris and Dajuan Harris in the backcourt.

Louisville Cardinals

Assistant Coach Nolan Smith was part of the coaching staff that landed Mgbako at Duke so the hope was that they could pull him over to Louisville. That didn’t work out but the team was able to land Tre White, a 6’7 wing transfer from USC that can start for the program right away. And they still have a pair of top-30 incoming commits in 6’8 guard/wing Trentyn Flowers and big man Dennis Evans.

St. John’s Red Storm

Coach Rick Pitino has been looking for that big splash this offseason and actually found it on the same day, landing 23 ppg scoring transfer guard, Jordan Dingle, from Penn. But the Red Storm was a team that could’ve allowed Mgbako to play at the four-spot, a position of need for them. But after landing Oregon State transfer Glenn Taylor at the wing spot, they’ll be okay going forward.

Where does addition of Mackenzie Mgbako put Indiana Basketball in Big Ten?

There’s a clear top-tier of the Big Ten next season, with Purdue, assuming that National Player of the Year big man Zach Edey comes back, and Michigan State as the heavy favorites in the conference. After that can be up for discussion with just about everyone else outside of Minnesota.

Teams like Northwestern, Ohio State, Rutgers, Maryland. and Wisconsin are bringing most of their rosters back. Programs such as Michigan and Illinois are rebuilding rosters and have players in flux, so they can move either up or down. Indiana is in a similar spot due to who it lost but has slowly built up the group into a potential contender.

The one main position that needs to be worked on with the last scholarship is at shooting guard. At one point, they were heavily in the mix for 20 ppg scorer Dalton Knecht but he’s off to Tennessee. Right now, the projected contributors at the two-spot for Indiana are Trey Galloway (6.7 ppg on 46% 3PT), Anthony Leal, and CJ Gunn. Galloway had 65 attempts so he’s a capable shooter but are the Hoosiers ready to give him 25-30 mpg?

Indiana Basketball has a middle-of-the-road roster in the Big Ten with high potential but could use one more veteran guard to feel better about next season. There’s going to be growing pains no matter what but all things considered, this has been a good offseason haul for Coach Mike Woodson and the coaching staff.