The past season was a banner campaign for both San Diego State Basketball and the Mountain West. The Aztecs not only won 32 games but they also made it to the national title game for the first time in school history. It also was the first time that the Mountain West Conference had a team make the NCAA Tournament Final Four for the first time ever.
One could say that the timing is perfect for San Diego State as a program. Right now, all of college athletics is involved with constant realignment. All of the top five conferences have been rumored to be either gaining or losing members in the coming years. Programs among the mid-major conferences such as the Aztecs are reportedly potential beneficiaries if there are any other moves.
And it looks as if San Diego State is prepared to make a move on its own.
Sources: San Diego State gave the Mountain West written notice this week that the school “intends to resign from the Mountain West Conference.” SDSU asked the Mountain West for a “one-month extension given unforeseen delays involving other collegiate athletic conferences beyond…
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) June 16, 2023
The Aztecs were reportedly facing a deadline at the end of the month when it comes to the Mountain West imposing additional fees if a school were to leave, going from $17 million to over $30 million. That’s a huge financial move, one that seems to have forced the school to become a free agent soon.
Right now, San Diego State won’t have a home on July 1st. But there are potential options for them if things go correctly. How that works out could make this decision either good or bad for the program, in all sports.
Here’s a look at the top four conferences that the Aztecs could eventually get involved with.
4. American Athletic Conference
To be clear, there are two clear options for San Diego State that’ll make sense. But right now, they haven’t been invited to either and a worst-case scenario can occur where they’re effectively homeless when it comes to conference affiliation. Among two “emergency” options that would make sense would include the AAC, one of the newer leagues that emerged due to the Big East realignment fallout that occurred over a decade ago.
The conference had more movement last offseason, with Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida off to the Big 12. In their place comes Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA, all from Conference USA. From a basketball perspective, this isn’t a bad haul, as FAU is coming off a Final Four apperance and nearly beat San Diego State, while both North Texas (NIT) and Charlotte (CBI) won their respective postseason tournaments.
The AAC has cemented itself as a top-7 conference and on the same standing as the Mountain West, both in prestige and finances. But the obvious fatal flaw in this situation is the travel, as San Diego State would be 1000s of miles away from most of their peers. Going from California for a game against East Carolina would break records for most travel for a conference game.
Again, this would be the landing spot if everything goes wrong and the Mountain West wants nothing to do with San Diego State. But, it would be better than crawling to the Big West or WAC just for geographic reasons.
3. West Coast Conference
Just like the AAC, the WCC also is sending a program to the Big 12. The BYU Cougars were a former conference rival to San Diego State Basketball, before becoming an independent in football and placing all of the other sports in the WCC. For the most part, it proved to be a successful long-term move for the past decade that worked out since they’re now in the Big 12.
The Aztecs could make a similar move if push comes to shove and the top two options aren’t available. Like BYU, they can make football independent and focus on basketball, which is fully the face of the athletic program. There are plenty of positives, including being paired with arguably the top western basketball program overall in Gonzaga.
It’s a league that has also had success outside of the Bulldogs, with Saint Mary’s and San Francisco recently making the NCAA Tournament, while programs such as LMU and Santa Clara being top-100 programs. Plus, they’d have a natural rival already set in San Diego in the league.
Hypothetically, is the easy geography that comes with the WCC more beneficial than having the football team in a conference? BYU was able to avoid that question in the latest round of realignment and if things go left, San Diego State may have to deal with that.
But hopefully, the program ends up in one of the two obvious landing spots.
2. Pac-12 Conference
The Pac-12 has been the epicenter of conference realignment this Summer, partly due to concerning reasons. The Big 12 has become its rival, as they’re reportedly been poaching the likes of Colorado, Utah, and the Arizona schools (ASU and Zona). Right now, none have budged but there’s a possibility that Colorado returns.
If that happens, San Diego State would be the natural replacement. They’re located in the heart of Pac-12 country and with both USC and UCLA off to the Big Ten a year from now, adding the San Diego market is a must for the conference. They’ve obviously shown to be a competitive basketball program and on paper would be a top-4 team if the Aztecs were to be in the Pac-12 right now.
Comparing the two conferences, the Pac-12 would be the preferred option if everything was even. But that’s the issue, as the Pac-12 could be facing a future exodus. Not only are the four previously mentioned schools linked to the Big 12, but both Oregon and Washington could be future targets for the Big Ten if they opt to expand to not isolate the Los Angeles schools so much.
If that were to happen, it would make the Aztecs joining the Pac-12 futile. But that’s the risk, as it’s still the superior conference compared to the Mountain West. But while this was the long “dream scenario” for San Diego State, another has emerged.
1. Big 12 Conference
In fairness to the Pac-12, they should’ve been No. 1 had it not been for the recent efforts of the Big 12 and new commissioner, Bret Yormark. Not only has he been looking to add more teams, but he’s also expanding the league’s footprint, creating the “Big 12 Mexico” initiative.
Although the conference is losing Texas and Oklahoma after this season, the additions of BYU, Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati have stabilized the Big 12 for the foreseeable future. And the league isn’t done, as they’ve been linked with the likes of UConn, Villanova, Gonzaga, SMU, and Memphis along with the Aztecs.
San Diego State’s resume compares to all of them, especially since they have a decent football program. And the Final Four appearance gives them a small leg to stand on up against the likes of UConn, Villanova, and Gonzaga, with football giving them an edge. Plus, getting into the California market would be big for the conference’s ambitions.
While a stable Pac-12 would be the best situation for the Aztecs, the Big 12 is simply a better long-term option for the program. It would guarantee them being a power conference program and escape the mid-major label that may have limited what they can do in the past. They’ll have to just hope that the Big 12 is ready to give them an offer.