We’re so close to the start of the 2023-24 NCAA Basketball season and now we can analyze respective rosters. That includes all of the newcomers, both via the transfer portal and the incoming freshmen. These days, it’s hard to know which first-year players will get meaningful minutes, as the combination of the explosion of the portal and the extra year of eligibility from the NCAA makes it harder than ever to get them on the court.
Still, expect there to be a lot of new faces that could have an impact on their teams next season. Looking at the top freshmen from the 2023 recruiting class, here’s a look at the top projected impact performers.
Honorable Mention: Miro Little – Baylor Bears
The four-star prospect from Finland is part of a new group of guards replacing last year’s crop. Little, a 6’4 ball-handler, is more of a distributor than a pure scorer at this point but has a high ceiling compared to other international prospects. He’ll be competing against Toledo transfer Rayj Dennis for minutes at the point but expect him to be in the rotation mix.
HM: Jared McCain – Duke Blue Devils
With both starting guards returning, it could be a struggle for both McCain and the other five-star freshman (Caleb Foster) to get a lot of minutes. But McCain has the size to potentially play at the three-spot if needed and he’s a great scoring option.
HM: Carey Booth – Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The 6’10 forward is the son of a former NBA player and is viewed as a legit long-term development prospect for the Irish. The program is rebuilding and it is a brand-new frontcourt so there’s a good chance Booth will get minutes.
HM: Blake Buchanan – Virginia Cavaliers
The four-star center prospect joins a brand-new frontcourt for the Cavaliers that lost Kadin Shedrick and Jayden Gardner. Look for Merrimack transfer and former NEC Player of the Year Jordan Minor to be the focal point of the frontcourt but if he struggles at the ACC level, look for the 6’11 Buchanan to benefit from a minutes standpoint.
25. Dedan Thomas – UNLV Rebels
The four-star prospect reclassified from the 2024 class so there’s a chance that he won’t have the biggest impact. Still, the Rebels don’t have another true point guard on the roster since both Elijah Harkless and Keshon Gilbert are gone. UNLV added literally some “big” transfers in the frontcourt this offseason, including Keylan and Kalib Boone. If Thomas can be an effective lead guard, this team could compete at the top of the Mountain West.
24. Kwame Evans – Oregon Ducks
I could’ve picked either Evans or Mookie Cook for this list, both of whom are five-star combo forward freshmen for the Ducks. Outside of big man N’Faly Dante, there are a lot of questions on this Pac-12 team’s roster. Evans has the chance to raise Oregon’s ceiling thanks to his overall offensive game, including the ability to stretch the floor.
23. Devin Royal – Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State always seems to have a star freshman explode statistically and Royal has the chance to do the same. He’s a 6’6 wing who can score at all three levels and would complement Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle well in the frontcourt. Fellow four-star prospect Scotty Middleton is another freshman wing to watch as well.
22. Andrej Stojakovic – Stanford Cardinal
Stanford lost starting wing Harrison Ingram to the transfer portal but did bring back a pair of sharpshooters in Michael Jones and Spencer Jones. And joining the offensive firepower is Andrej Stojakovic, the son of former NBA star wing, Peja Stojakovic. The younger shooter has the chance to be the Pac-12 6th Man of the Year and help turn the Cardinal into a possible threat in the league.
21. TJ Power – Duke Blue Devils
With four starters coming back, it’s going to be hard for the No. 2 overall incoming recruiting class to have much of an impact next season. One area where someone can make inroads is via shooting, especially in the frontcourt. Neither Kyle Filipowski nor Mark Mitchell are elite floor spacers having someone like Power, a five-star freshman forward, will allow Duke to use some creative lineups to maximize everyone’s potential.
20. Dusty Stromer – Gonzaga Bulldogs
It’s been a wild offseason regarding Gonzaga’s roster moves but the backcourt is set for next season with Nolan Hickman and Creighton transfer, Ryan Nembhard. Stromer, a top-50 freshman guard, has the chance to be the first guard off the bench. He was one of the top performers out west and at 6’5 can play multiple positions on the perimeter. Look for him to be an offensive upgrade over Hunter Sallis off the bench.
19. Ilane Fibleuil – UCLA Bruins
There are a number of options I could’ve used for the Bruins, who lost five starters from last year’s Sweet 16 team. The one with the most potential to produce is Fibleuil, a 6’7 guard/wing from France with five-star potential. He can handle the ball, shoot, and score at a high level. Outside of Utah transfer Lazar Stefanovic, look for this freshman to be a key focal point of the offense.
18. Carlton Carrington – Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh’s entire backcourt rotation from last season all moved on and Dior Johnson, the lone returning guard on the roster, isn’t with the team anymore. The ball-handling duties for the team this year will come down to a pair of freshmen but during the team’s foreign tour, it was Carrington that got the start. The 6’4 combo guard from Baltimore should get plenty of playing time for the Panthers and has the all-around game to be a key newcomer to the ACC.
17. Eric Dailey Jr. – Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys lost its starting frontcourt duo of Moussa Cisse and Kalib Boone this offseason, creating a pathway for the large incoming freshmen class to get early minutes. Of the group, look for Dailey to break out. He’s a top-50 prospect and a talented 6’7 versatile combo forward with two-way ability. With so many new faces and unknowns as to where the offense will come from, look for Dailey to not only start but have an impact presence.
16. Xavier Booker – Michigan State Spartans
One of the highest-ranked commits in the Coach Tom Izzo era, Booker is a five-star big man with an elite offensive game, capable of scoring inside and out. With Joey Hauser gone and Malik Hall currently injured, Booker has the chance to get minutes at the four-spot for Michigan State. However, with so many returning pieces back, including center Mady Sissoko, look for him to be more of a sophomore breakout piece to watch, rather than a freshman that puts up big numbers.
15. Gavin Griffiths – Rutgers Scarlet Knights
While the attention is on who Rutgers might get in the 2024 recruiting class, don’t overlook the top prospect they have for this season. Griffiths is a 6’5 shooting guard, ranked in the top 50 overall. He’s a legit scorer and the hope is that he can replace the double-digit scoring production left by Cam Spencer, who is now at UConn. Offense is a potential concern with this roster but Griffiths has the chance to alleviate that and have a big role in the process.
14. Jackson Shelstad – Oregon Ducks
Although there are two five-star prospects I mentioned before with Oregon, a good case can be made that Shelstad, a four-star and top-40 point guard prospect, is more important. With Will Richardson gone, the Ducks will rely on him to be the starting point guard. He has other veteran guards around him but they’re all off-guards, so look for Shelstad to be arguably the biggest X-factor on the entire roster.
13. Wesley Yates – Washington Huskies
The 6’4 shooting guard from Texas is a top-50 prospect and a major recruiting win for Washington. Yates’ scoring ability will be important for the Huskies, who are likely starting both Sahvir Wheeler and Paul Mulcahy in the backcourt. Neither are great shooters themselves so just from a spacing standpoint, Yates will be very important for this Pac-12 program.
12. Stephon Castle – UConn Huskies
Castle is a five-star prospect that UConn was able to land before winning the national title last season. He’s a 6’5 versatile guard who can handle the ball and guard several positions on the court. While not likely to be the same kind of near triple-double threat that Andre Jackson was at the wing Castle will certainly be an offensive upgrade on the wing.
11. Elliott Cadeau – UNC Tar Heels
The Heels have RJ Davis back for another year but lost Caleb Love to the transfer portal this offseason. His replacement is Cadeau, a five-star prospect that reclassified from the 2024 class. He’s a 6’1 ball-handler who’s more of a true point than either of UNC’s starters from last season. That alone could unlock the offense overall, including getting the ball better to All-American star big, Armando Bacot. The question is whether or not he’s ready to play heavy minutes as a lead guard.
10. Aaron Bradshaw – Kentucky Wildcats
A very strong case can be made that Bradshaw is the best overall big man in the entire freshmen class. He’s a 7’0 skilled big man who can play face-up on the perimeter and stretch the floor. He has a great chance of being the next frontcourt star for Kentucky but the concern is that he’s still recovering from an offseason foot injury. The hope is that Bradshaw is still on track for the season opener a couple of months from now.
9. Omaha Biliew – Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State made history by landing Biliew, the first five-star commit out of the high school ever for the program. He’s a 6’8 power forward with tremendous athleticism, which has allowed him to be a dominant two-way player. Biliew should allow the Cyclones to remain stout defensively inside while also being able to benefit from the shooters surrounding him on the perimeter.
8. Ja’Kobe Walter – Baylor Bears
Walter is a 5-star shooting guard prospect who can simply put the ball in the basket. That’s an important trait to have on this Baylor team that lost a trio of 15+ ppg scorers, all on the perimeter. We’ve seen Coach Scott Drew develop less talented guards and turn them into NBA players. Walter has a great chance to be an instant impact player and a leading scoring option on the team.
7. Justin Edwards – Kentucky Wildcats
Per 247sports, Edwards is actually the highest-ranked incoming freshman for Kentucky. He’s a 6’7 combo forward with great scoring ability. Edwards can rebound and defend at a high level as well, which is why he’s already a projected top-5 pick on some early NBA Draft boards. The lack of production on the wings at times has been an issue for the Wildcats but that shouldn’t be the case with Edwards on the court, which will allow the team to use some effective small-ball lineups and play WVU transfer Tre Mitchell at the five.
6. Deshawn Harris-Smith – Maryland Terrapins
One of the more impressive freshmen in this preseason portion of the offseason is Harris-Smith, a 6’5 guard who has tremendous two-way potential. He’s an effective passer and defender, while also capable of making some shots out deep. Already a projected starter, look for him to have a major impact on a Terrapin team that’s flying under the radar as a Big Ten title contender.
5. Mackenzie Mgbako – Indiana Hoosiers
The biggest offseason de-commitment for the incoming freshmen class had to be Mgbako, a 6’7 combo forward and five-star prospect who was originally at Duke. He’s a great overall athlete who has real offensive potential and is a projected starter for the Hoosiers. While there may be some fit concerns in the frontcourt overall, look for Mgbako to stand out as the best of the bunch.
4. Aden Holloway – Auburn Tigers
Among all of the incoming freshmen in NCAA Basketball, Holloway flies under the radar as an elite pure scorer. The 6’0 ball-handler can shoot the ball well and can playmake for others in the backcourt. In an era where many “point guards” are score-first these days, Holloway should be able to slide in as the starting option for Auburn, who lost Wendell Green this offseason.
The Tigers’ frontcourt is set with both Jaylin Williams and Johni Broome coming back. And the addition of 20 ppg scoring guard Denver Jones gives the team a veteran go-to option on offense. But if Holloway can be that kind of option as well, this team could be a darkhorse threat for a top spot in the SEC next season.
3. Cody Williams – Colorado Buffaloes
Williams is a natural small forward prospect, listed at 6’8 and 190 pounds. A consensus top-10 overall freshman recruit, Williams is a great slasher to the basket, and just like his brother and former Santa Clara star, Jalen Williams has the size and overall measurements that NBA scouts love.
Colorado has been getting some preseason top-25 hype this offseason, thanks to returning both of its star players, Tristan Da Silva and KJ Simpson. And TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin Jr. gives them a proven option at center. If Williams is as good as advertised and gives them another double-digit scoring option on the wing, look for the Buffs to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
2. Isaiah Collier – USC Trojans
Four-star guard Bronny James is the biggest name joining the Trojans this year but Collier is the highest-ranked recruit in program history, ranked No. 1 on several services. He’s the definition of a “true point guard”, being a pass-first playmaker that makes his teammates better. The 6’3 ball-handler is also an underrated scorer, capable of going for 20+ points if opposing defenses aren’t careful.
With returning leading scorer Boogie Ellis back in the backcourt, all of the pressure won’t be on Collier to dominate the game each time. However, for USC to be a threat to make and advance in the NCAA Tournament, they’ll need Collier to look like the No. 1 incoming freshman in the NCAA Tournament.
1. DJ Wagner – Kentucky Wildcats
There was a time when Wagner was competing with Collier for the No. 1 overall spot in the 2023 recruiting class and he’s a consensus top-5 overall prospect as well. The 6’3 combo guard is a quality scorer and is a good defender as well. He started on the team’s recent foreign tour and should be expected to be the lead guard this season.
What makes Wagner the top impact freshman to watch is that while Kentucky will once again have one of the most talented NCAA Basketball rosters, it’s also going to be one of the youngest. How consistently a high-level Wagner plays will ultimately determine how far the SEC program will advance in March.